Kupyansk-Svatove
The RU struggle for "lebensraum" continues in the Svatove area.
The AFU repulsed an attack around Stel'makhivka. I belive this is an effort to try to keep the AFU away from the P-66 and attacking the last line of towns before Svatove.
Kreminna
The AFU repulsed an attack around Serebryansʹke. Wargonzo reported RU attacks around Makiivka and Chervonopopivka. I asses the AFU are making incremental progress in this area. Smaller positional battles are taking place in preparation for better weather.
Siversk
The AFU repulsed attacks in the direction of Verkhn'okam'yans'ke, Vesele and Vyimka. I believe attacks in the direction of Vesele and Vyimka comes from the Bilohorivka area. I consider the town a grey zone.
UA counter attack with HMMWV geolocated to the forest north of Bilohorivka by @EerikMatero
Bakhmut
Continued attacks by Wagner in the Bakhmut area. The AFU repulsed attacks around eastern Bakhmut, Optyne and Klishchiivka. I believe RU forces will continue to advance in the areas surrounding Bakhmut at a pace of several meters per day.
I also believe the AFU will attempt a limited counter attack to reset RU positions. I do not believe Bakhmut is in danger until RU forces can threaten the supply to the city, which I don't believe they are close to doing.
Another thing regarding Bakhmut, even if RU forces enter the city, will have high ground west of the Bakhmutovka river. This is an area with large concrete buildings and industrial areas while the east side is mostly consists of small houses. (Image POV from north looking south)
The river it self might not be a huge obstacle, but if you consider the open space and the elevation differences, it might be hard for the RU dismounted infantry to cross it. It will be even harder to supply units actually managing to cross it.
Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Pervomaiske, Nevelske and Krasnohorivka. Wargonzo reports "positional battles" in Velyka Novosilka and additional attacks around Mar'inka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka. No change.
They decided to go and stand on this little piece of road right here.
57.923805, 27.679182
There is some kind of local deal where Estonians are allowed to drive over that little stretch of Russian land if they don't stop. news.err.ee/1609827133/ppa…
Rough infil/exfil path of the UVU shooter, based on photos, videos and eye whitness reports. Green arrows are guestimated paths between sightings.
In the start of this video, the UVU shooter can be seen walking towards the campus, at the end he can be seen running away from it.
40.28187, -111.71443
The next location is the tunnel going under the Campus drive to the parking garage
40.28014, -111.71459
Ukrainian Drone hit the Deng Xiaoping Logistics Complex which is part of the Alabuga Special Economical Zone. The Alabuga SEZ is where they produce the Shahed drone.
The DXLC is a railway logistics center being built in partnership with China to support the fast growing Alabuga SEZ.
At the actual SEZ they are expanding at a rapid pace, they are building on site housing and/or office space for tens of thousands of employees. Their goal is likely to significantly scale up the production of drones.
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?