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Dec 18 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
I think I may have been downplaying the extinction-climate catastrophe recently.

Let me explain.. 🧵
For months I've been highlighting how the 2022 IPCC AR6 report implies emissions must peak in 2022 to avoid not only 1.5°C but also 2°C.

(See thread)

However, it appears it's actually worse..

1/
It seems emissions must peak by 2020 - 2025 (in other words, 'immediately') to avoid not only 1.5°C and 2°C, but also 2.5°C:

'To keep global temperatures below 1.5°C, 2°C or even 2.5°C, emissions must peak before 2025.'

2/
france24.com/en/environment…
Seeing this IPCC chart is what led me to look at all this again.

Is it reasonable/correct to say emissions must peak immediately to avoid 2.5°C?

Nobody is saying it, but as far as I can tell that's the situation.

So, will emissions peak before 2025?

3/
No.

Emissions aren't expected to peak in 2023 or 2024, but rather in 2025. And given the volatility of today's energy crisis, surely the peak could be even later?

4/
france24.com/en/environment…
Oil and gas companies are betting on a 2.5°C future.

€55bn of this investment in new oil & gas fields over the next decade is for sites that'll only be needed if demand for the fossil fuels grows to a point where the world exceeds the 2.5°C threshold.

5/euronews.com/green/2022/12/…
The IPCC consensus says "cataclysm" to me, confirming as it does (as far as I'm concerned) my assumption that capitalism means 2.5°C by 2040- 2090.

Meanwhile, James Hansen says sensitivity is at least ~4C, leading him to call for geoengineering. Awful.

6/
Confirmation from a highly knowledgeable climate scientist:

Yes, emissions must peak immediately (2020- 2025) for 1.5C, 2C, and even 2.5C.

The IEA projection doesn't include land use change so a peak of total emissions by 2023/2024 isn't impossible.

7/7

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
Dec 20
BREAKING: crucial negotiations to end the destruction of Earth's species & ecosystems at biodiversity conference COP15 result in a deal that prioritises economic interests 🧵
1.
'While, on paper, the targets recognise the severe challenges facing all life on Earth, the agreement is not legally binding'

beastlybusiness.org/2022/12/19/att…
2.
'30×30 would be the worst possible outcome of COP15

The plan to turn 30% of the earth into Protected Areas is based on a deeply unscientific and racist logic'

Scientific data proves Indigenous people have cared for and protected lands for generations.africanarguments.org/2022/12/why-30…
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Dec 19
Climate crisis: even temporarily overshooting 2°C would cause permanent damage to Earth’s species 🧵

theconversation.com/climate-crisis…
1.
2.
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Dec 19
🧵 BREAKING NEWS

UN says historic global biodiversity agreement to save species and humanity will be like the Paris 1.5°C climate goal but for nature

also the UN: climate goal of 1.5°C is nearly dead
1. 'COP15 aims to achieve an historic agreement to halt and reverse nature loss, on par with the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. What is adopted in Montreal will essentially be a global blueprint to save the planet’s dwindling biodiversity.'

unep.org/news-and-stori…
2. It's not just 1.5°C. Emissions are rising as capitalism ends the world by creating a 2/2.5°C global warming hell on Earth.

Emissions should have peaked immediately this year (2020 - 2025) to avoid 1.5C, 2°C, or 2.5°C.

A few scientists remain hopeful..
dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…
Read 11 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Dec 18
An amazing news story virtually ignored by state/corporate media: scientists are pointing to emergency system change actions because emissions must peak immediately to avoid catastrophic 1.5°C/2°C/2.5°C of global warming but economic growth has emissions rising apocalyptically.🧵
1. Emissions need to fall immediately (2020 - 2025) for 1.5°C, 2°C & 2.5°C.

Extinction looms.

The public deserves to know scientists are pointing to system change action.

Where are the mass media journalists & editors?

Capitalism will take us to 2.5°C.
france24.com/en/environment…
2. Look at what scientists suggest we must do in the coming 7 years!

This couldn't possibly be achieved without economic system change.

Walk and cycle towards system change.

Stop flying.

Drive only if your situation compels you to.

Thread:
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Dec 13
BREAKING: global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. 🧵
1.
'equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C with a likely range of 3.5-5.5°C.

global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates.'

James Hansen and colleagues release new work for discussion.

This should be front page news.

arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474
2. We're heading for potentially cataclysmic 1.75/2.25°C within years not decades.

Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Dec 13
2022:

* IPCC report shows emissions must peak and plummet in 2022 to avoid 1.5/2°C calamity but emissions keep rising. Media stay quiet.

* Climate scientists confirm warming will be far worse than hoped. Media stay quiet.

* Amazon Rainforest collapse begins. Media stay quiet.
1.
2.
Read 7 tweets

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