Thread by @StormsOnErie

SEICHE WATCH-
The storm heading to the area Friday is continually trending more severe.
As of now, models suggest over 40 CONTINUOUS HOURS of wind gusts in excess of 100kmh.
While SSW winds will reduce maximum potential effect, a seiche of 10ft or more is possible. 1/
#ONstorm

Flooding and shoreline erosion is likely. Icing in flooded areas likely.
Blizzard conditions will make escape difficult.
Make plans now if you are in low lying or shoreline areas.
If the 2019-2021 seiches impacted you, this one will too.
Times: Fri 10am to Mon 10am.

All areas east of Long Point, ON and Dunkirk, NY
will be most severely effected with @TownOfFortErie and #BuffaloNY seeing the worst of it.
As the seiche rolls back and forth, all areas will see significant water level changes.

On top of the seiche, waves are now forecast from 16ft to 20ft giving a potential water incursion of 25 to 30ft.
Anyone not 30ft/10m above the natural water level should start to make preparations for flooding.
Towns on the eastern end should be prepared for damage.

On top of all this of course, will be a blizzard.
Other weather sources will cover that thoroughly, but seiche forecasts are rare, which is why I'm trying to push that info out.

Hopefully those with a much greater reach than I will get the word out.
The blizzard will get the most attention so there's concern the seiche will sneak in under the media radar.

Screen shots of ECMWF models.

I've never seen this on models for Lake Erie. Ever.
144kmh/86mph wind gusts.
I'm at a loss for words.
Please take this seriously.
@NPCA_Ontario please advise those in your district.

Update for 6pm.
Nothing is indicating this won't be as bad as it looks.
One of the reasons is illustrated here.
That line between warm air and cold air has almost no transition.
It will go from warm and rainy to blizzard in minutes.

Everyone around Lake Erie will be hit hard.
This isn't like most storms where only a portion gets affected.
No one will not see extreme weather.
It is coming, you will get hit.
Even if models trend down 10%, this storm is so deep it won't matter.

I don't want to sound alarmist, but I want you to be able to prepare so your risk is minimized.
Chances of power outages, trees down, roof damage, highway closures, extreme cold.. all of it is almost a certainty.

Plan for 72 hours of no heat, no power.
Whatever you need to buy, get it tomorrow. Things will get scarce once the local media puts out their warnings.