Svatove
The AFU repulsed attacks around Stel'makhivka and Chervonopopivka. A shelling was reported in the area of Yahidne by UA.
I believe the AFU positions are close to Yahidne to the south. Otherwise no significant change. RU MoD claims to have hit UA troop concentrations close to Ivanivka which kind of confirms the frontline. Ivanivka remains contested.
Siversk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Bilohorivka and Verkhn'okam'yans'ke.
Wargonzo reports RU attacks in the direction of Vesele and Vyimka
RU mod claims strikes on UA positions near Dibrova, which confirms the frontline in the area.
Bakhmut
I don't believe there have been any significant change in the area. The situation changes from hour to hour. The AFU repulsed attacks around Bakhmuts'ke, Pidhorodne, Bakhmut (see next post) Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
It seems the AFU are managing to hold the defensive lines in and south of Bakhmut. What we need to keep an eye on is the area around Soledar and Yakovlivka. The most dangerous thing now would be if RU manages to isolate Soledar.
Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks in the direction of Krasnohorivka, Oleksandropil, Mar'inka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka. Wargonzo also reported about RU attacks around Pervomais'ke and Nevel's'ke.
Fighting is heavy in this area the LDNR troops fight for "their" city. This means they are highly motivated and close to home.
According to RU MoD AFU units attacked in the area of Novosilka, Novomykhailivka and Volodymyrivka. I'm not paying too much attention to RU mod as their history with reporting the truth is not great.
I do believe the AFU has pushed back RU units a bit in this area which they captured during the Pavlivka offensive.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports continued strikes on RU warehouses and equipment in the Tokmak, Polohy and Berdyans'k area.
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992