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Logan Phillips Profile picture
@LoganR2WH
Dec 19, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Today, I launched a total redesign of the 2024 GOP Primary Polling Average at RacetotheWH. It's designed to be clear, interactive, and easy to use!
Link - > racetothewh.com/2024/rep
Now, you can track the latest polls in every state. There are three main categories
- Polls with all candidates
- Polling if Trump drops out
- Head to Head polling (Like Trump v. DeSantis)
Our trend lines show how the race has changed - month to month - since March of 2021. That includes the steady rise of DeSantis, and the dramatic shift after the midterms.
We include the full list of polling for every state - and you can click on each poll for a direct link to the source.
I like to show our work to build trust - so we show how much weight each poll has in the average
Unique feature exclusive to RacetotheWH: An interactive GOP Primary map! The first map shows the polling leader in each state. Hover your cursor over a state, and see the top five polling candidates in the state.
Easily switch to ten+ other maps that show how much support the candidates have in each state with our heat map. It includes not just DeSantis and Trump, but also other candidates like Cruz, Cheney, Haley, Scott & more!
This is just the beginning! Soon, I'll be adding new features to RacetotheWH like:
- Favorability ratings (w/ GOP & the broader electorate)
- Polling Average showing support with major groups (education, religion & more)
- Delegate Projections
Keep following the 2024 primary polling average - because it will be updated every day! The primary process is notoriously confusing, and I hope RacetotheWH will make it as transparent and easy to understand as possible! racetothewh.com/2024/rep

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More from @LoganR2WH

Logan Phillips Profile picture
Jan 3
I'm finishing my first forecast for the 2026 Senate cycle. Here are the five most important Senate races to watch this coming election cycle:

Dem Targets: Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska (harder lift, but on the map)
GOP: Georgia🧵
The #1 target for Democrats is Maine. Susan Collins is an electoral juggernaut, but this will be her toughest election cycle yet, especially if Governor Janet Mills runs (In 2022, Mills beat former Governor LePage 56% to 42%).
Alaska's inclusion on the list will surprise many. However, no state in the union has moved more towards Democrats in the last 16 years then Alaska.
Read 6 tweets
Logan Phillips Profile picture
Oct 30, 2024
Despite razor-thin national polling on the generic ballot, Congressional Democrats are polling much stronger at the district level. In 66 races with at least one non-partisan poll since June, Democrats are exceeding the district's partisan lean by an average of 3.21%. 🧵
If we tighten our criteria to races with at least two non-partisan polls—one released since September 1st—Democrats edge over the partisan lean becomes 4.94% in those 36 races.
What does this mean for Election Day? If every district voted 3.2% more Democratic than its partisan lean, Democrats would win 220 seats. At a 4.94% overperformance, they'd secure 227 seats. It takes 218 seats to control the House.
Read 7 tweets
Logan Phillips Profile picture
Sep 6, 2024
Race for the House Majority Update for FL 13 - Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R) vs. Whitney Fox (D)

Rating Change: Likely R to Tilt R
Projection Lead: R+12.3% to R+2.5%
Chance to Win: Luna 94% to Luna 72% chance

Explanation in the next tweet.🧵 Image
A week ago, FL-13 was not on my radar. The only polling we had was months out of date and only a minor factor, and the fundamentals of the race pointed to a double digit GOP victory.
However, we just got two back to back good polls for Fox. The first was a non-partisan poll by St. Pete showing Fox (!) up by 4%. That was the LAST thing I expected. I assumed it was an outlier, but a GOP internal poll showed Luna up by just 5%.
Read 6 tweets
Logan Phillips Profile picture
Jul 31, 2024
Some folks are saying that Harris has reset the race to where the polling was before the debate. That's no longer true - because Harris is now polling far better than Biden did at any point in 2024 in AZ, GA, NV & NC. 🧵
In fact, in our state polling average at RacetotheWH, Kamala Harris has outright taken the polling lead in MI, NV & WI. That gives her the lead in 256 worth of electoral votes. The last time Biden had that many? Nov 1st, 2023.
So what's the takeaway? Maybe the conventional wisdom is wrong. I don't think this is a Tilt R race anymore. I feel comfortable saying that Kamala is at least narrowly favored right now.
Read 6 tweets
Logan Phillips Profile picture
Apr 17, 2024
RacetotheWH House Forecast update - We now have our general election matchup set for the AL-2 between Shomari Figures (D) & Caroleene Dobson (R). We give Figures (D) an 81% chance at flipping the new district.
We have Figures on track to lead by 10.1%. With an open race, no polling and a long time until the election, our forecast assumes there's a wider chance for a misfire in this race (hence a 19% chance of an upset despite the big projected lead).
Unless we get contradictory information - like a sharp rise in fundraising by the GOP, or strong GOP polling, then we'll see Democrats chances rise slowly overtime.
Read 4 tweets
Logan Phillips Profile picture
Jan 4, 2024
Nikki Haley is surging in New Hampshire at the perfect time. She just broke 30% and has narrowed Donald Trump's lead to single digits. 🧵 Image
Haley's support has risen significantly since September. She started that month at just 5.4%. Today, she is at 31%.
If Christie drops out, New Hampshire might genuinely become a tossup race. If we exclude Hutchinson, 83% of Christie supporters rank Haley as their second choice in the polls.
Read 5 tweets

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