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Dec 20 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This is my map of Bakhmut at this point based on the best information I have available. I know there is some hyper optimistic map of a "counter attack" floating around, I see no evidence of it being accurate.
From all I can tell, Ukraine has lost ground on the eastern side of Bakhmut today. I have this blue dotted line that depicts roughly the old position around the industrial area, Ukraine appears to have fallen back to their stronger defensive positions that have been prepared.
I'm keeping all of this industrial area a yellow "gray area" because I am not convinced Russian control is complete. In the residential area just to the south Ukraine pushed Russia out, then Russia pushed back in, and from what I understand Ukraine pushed them back out again.
This is why I keep this residential area a yellow gray zone.
None of these changes depict any real change to the situation in Bakhmut. I believe this area has stabilized, and I do not expect any significant Russian advances in the immediate future.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 19
Igor decided to dunk on the Russian army today in a very long essay. Here are chunks of said essay.
More of said essay.
These are my favorite parts
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 18
Marinka has been totally destroyed. Every building is destroyed, from months of shelling. Think of it this way: When Russia was assaulting Kyiv, Marinka was shelled. When Russia was attacking Mariupol, Marinka was shelled. When Russia attacked Severodonetsk, Marinka was shelled.
When Russia attacked Bakhmut, Marinka was shelled. When Ukraine liberated Kharkiv, Marinka was shelled. When Ukraine liberated Kherson, Marinka was shelled.

Marinka getting shelled is the one constant in this war. Marinka is demolished.
While Ukraine still holds their defenses in Marinka, and could for a while longer, realistically Russia will eventually capture the ruins of the city.
Read 10 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 16
From what I hear about Bakhmut, the situation is stabilizing. There are still groups of Russians that penetrated the Ukrainian lines, but Ukraine is slowly flushing them out. It is difficult work, because we're talking about fighting in residential areas with many places to hide.
The south of Bakhmut in Optyne is difficult but remains stable. They are running out of pieces of Opytne to defend, the town is getting obliterated. But Ukraine holds on, everyone knows the importance of the position. It has to be held, so they hold it.
The areas further south, from what I understand Russia is having issues crossing the highways and canals. There are wide open fields on the other side, I am not sure their attack has progressed much. The Russian descriptions point toward little progress.
Read 11 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 15
Russia showed this building shelled by Ukraine.
Let’s just zoom out a bit…
Little bit more…
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 14
The situation in Bakhmut is deteriorating for Ukraine. Russia is attacking basically everywhere at the same time, and Ukraine is struggling to keep ground. They launch counter attacks, and occasionally kick Russia back out of certain areas, but the Russian attacks keep coming.
Opytne and Klishchiivka are both incredibly important for Ukraine to hold, and at the moment they do hold them, but the situation is tough. These areas are *MUCH* more important than the areas on the eastern part of the city where Russia has some success in the residential area.
Ukraine will likely have to retreat across the river, which is a pity. I find it unlikely that Russia will be able to continue this sort of press across the river, I think the battle will change tempo at that point. For now, Ukriane is trying to avoid that scenario.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 12
It is easy to dramatize what will happen to the Russian economy, saying it will collapse. And it will, but not in a spectacular way. It will take many years to fall apart, as it slowly shrinks. It might have some good years mixed in, but it will steadily shrink. The path is set.
It is also somewhat amusing in the short term, because the economy is being held afloat right now by the fact that so many people left the country. Many millions. So even though the economy has shrunk dramatically, unemployment is manageable.
But, the fact that so many people have left has created enormous damage to the economy that will compound annually for many years/decades.
Read 4 tweets

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