Last #BlueJays ⚾️🧵 of 2022 is on one of the biggest questions heading into 2023 & beyond: Bo Bichette's defence.
Let's start here: Did you know Bichette's Def. Runs Saved was +7 from 2019-21? 12th among MLB SS in that time.
But, Outs Above Average has never been a huge fan of Bichette's D & his DRS plummeted in 2022 to -16, which ranked 238th out of 243 MLB players to 500+ innings of defensive play.
Let's establish this: He is going to want to stay at SS. It makes the best sense for him for his career & future free agency.
It also makes sense for the Jays to see if he can figure it out because the bat is historically good.
Check out the comp to age-24 with Tulo & Nomar.
Let's also establish this: It was only Bo's second full MLB season last year. He had 216 career starts at SS coming into '22. That's not very many at all.
What did I see after watching a ton of tape? Some obvious throwing issues, but also some passive lines/reactions:
All of those examples above were instances where, in my opinion, he could have read ball off bat a bit better, and been a bit more explosive to take a more aggressive line & get the ball earlier.
Like the examples below!
Great note from @MarkASimonSays who told me that in 2021, Bichette made 53% of the plays to his left, which was above-average!
But in 2022, that dropped to 45%, meaning Bichette made about 15 fewer plays than an average SS on balls to his left.
That seems notable/problematic!
Let's add context: From 2003 to 2021, only 2 shortstops at Bichette's age or younger had ever posted a lower DRS than Bo's -16:
Hanley Ramirez (2007) -28
Tim Anderson (2017) -23
Here's a wacky (& perhaps encouraging) note: The following year Anderson was a +12.
From the Outs Above Average world: Carlos Correa was a -22 in his first two full seasons, but has been a +45 in 5 years since:
Paul DeJong is another example of someone who turned it around: -19 OAA first 2 yrs, +14 since.
So, there's reason to believe Bo can improve & less reason/precedent to believe he will move.
Consider:
Stats Inc. told me over last 50 years, *only* 5 shortstops who logged 3,000+ innings up to their age-24 season moved off the position at some point between ages 25-28:
Starlin Castro
Orlando Arcia
Jose Offerman
Jhonny Peralta
Wil Cordero
So, it's possible, but unlikely (to me).
One small note: I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays find more opportunities for Bichette to DH in 2023.
From 2019-21, roughly 8% of Bichette's starts were at DH (once every ~12 games).
Last year, he DH'd once in 158 games (0.6%).
So with more rest, more reps, more motivation to improve on a below-avg year, Bo will be closer to league avg in 2023 & that's all you need because the bat is elite!
But, if he struggles again & without shifts to help cover, we could be talking about a position switch in 2024.
Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays to everyone!
I hope you enjoyed my (free) work in 2022.
Here's to bigger & better things in 2023!
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Included:
*Fixing a hole in his swing from '23
*Leaning into strengths exposes a weakness
*Pitchers are attacking one area
*What he can learn from Isaac Paredes
Let's start here: June 16 Grand Slam
After that swing, Varsho had a .766 OPS.
2.1 WAR after that game ranked top 30 in MLB, just behind Adley Rutschman, Rafael Devers & Fernando Tatis.
Since that HR, tho?
.109 avg, .337 OPS, 38% K rate, -0.3 WAR
And it's ironic what's been happening when you consider where the pitch was thrown on that Grand Slam
I posted a thread before season began that pointed out one of the biggest weaknesses of Varsho's hitting last year was, strangely, inside pitches.
With his bat speed & willingness to pull the ball, didn't really make sense & I thought that would normalize.
*Milwaukee microcosms
*Putting this start in context
*2-strike approach vs before 2 strikes
*Attack Zones
*The dreaded "swing decisions"
Let's start here: Monday in Milwaukee... 1st pitch breaker, low & away, on the edge. Pop out.
Before 2 strikes, swinging at a pitch on the edge, low & away, is just as unproductive on league-wide basis as swinging in chase/waste area. It's a pitcher's pitch, still likely to result in contact & it's likely going to be an out. More on that later. It was better Tuesday!
Takes 1st pitch down & away, then gets a fastball in zone & turns it around for a hit. Good process, good result.
Wednesday, 2 outs in 1st 2 PA on the first pitches. Decent pitches, not-so-great swings.
All of these plays this week are tiny examples of season-long trends.
Tipping or not?
Grips, Catchers, Pitch Locations & More
Let's start here: It's the biggest storyline heading into Game 1 later today. Gausman has struggled more against this team than any other team he's faced more than once as a Jay...
Minnesota's on-base is more than 100 points higher than how the rest of the league has fared vs Gausman in 2022-23.
Gausman's strikeout to walk ratio is only 2:1 against the Twins, compared to 6:1 against the rest of Major League Baseball.
What's behind these high-level stats?
It's all about the splitter.
The Twins swing less, chase less, and just produce more against Gausman's splitter than any other team.
How are they having success against what is, objectively & subjectively, one of the best out-pitches in baseball???