Thread by @DownToBlack

Last #BlueJays ⚾️🧵 of 2022 is on one of the biggest questions heading into 2023 & beyond: Bo Bichette's defence.

Let's start here: Did you know Bichette's Def. Runs Saved was +7 from 2019-21? 12th among MLB SS in that time.

But, Outs Above Average has never been a huge fan of Bichette's D & his DRS plummeted in 2022 to -16, which ranked 238th out of 243 MLB players to 500+ innings of defensive play.

Let's establish this: He is going to want to stay at SS. It makes the best sense for him for his career & future free agency.

It also makes sense for the Jays to see if he can figure it out because the bat is historically good.

Check out the comp to age-24 with Tulo & Nomar.

Let's also establish this: It was only Bo's second full MLB season last year. He had 216 career starts at SS coming into '22. That's not very many at all.

What did I see after watching a ton of tape? Some obvious throwing issues, but also some passive lines/reactions:

All of those examples above were instances where, in my opinion, he could have read ball off bat a bit better, and been a bit more explosive to take a more aggressive line & get the ball earlier.

Like the examples below!

Great note from @MarkASimonSays who told me that in 2021, Bichette made 53% of the plays to his left, which was above-average!

But in 2022, that dropped to 45%, meaning Bichette made about 15 fewer plays than an average SS on balls to his left.

That seems notable/problematic!

Let's add context: From 2003 to 2021, only 2 shortstops at Bichette's age or younger had ever posted a lower DRS than Bo's -16:

Hanley Ramirez (2007) -28
Tim Anderson (2017) -23

Here's a wacky (& perhaps encouraging) note: The following year Anderson was a +12.

From the Outs Above Average world: Carlos Correa was a -22 in his first two full seasons, but has been a +45 in 5 years since:

Paul DeJong is another example of someone who turned it around: -19 OAA first 2 yrs, +14 since.

So, there's reason to believe Bo can improve & less reason/precedent to believe he will move.

Consider:

Stats Inc. told me over last 50 years, *only* 5 shortstops who logged 3,000+ innings up to their age-24 season moved off the position at some point between ages 25-28:

Starlin Castro
Orlando Arcia
Jose Offerman
Jhonny Peralta
Wil Cordero

So, it's possible, but unlikely (to me).

One small note: I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays find more opportunities for Bichette to DH in 2023.

From 2019-21, roughly 8% of Bichette's starts were at DH (once every ~12 games).

Last year, he DH'd once in 158 games (0.6%).

So with more rest, more reps, more motivation to improve on a below-avg year, Bo will be closer to league avg in 2023 & that's all you need because the bat is elite!

But, if he struggles again & without shifts to help cover, we could be talking about a position switch in 2024.

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays to everyone!
I hope you enjoyed my (free) work in 2022.
Here's to bigger & better things in 2023!