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Chris Black Profile picture
Chris Black
@DownToBlack
Live Sports Producer, Content Creator, Husband, Dad, Old Man Athlete
Aug 29, 2024 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
#BlueJays ⚾️🧵Alejandro Kirk

*recent hotness
*elite D
*value in context
*what's gone wrong
*stuff you can't measure

Let's start here:

.284 average, .356 on-base, .788 OPS, 17 RBI, 1.2 WAR in 26 games since the Danny Jansen trade

(2nd best WAR among catchers in that time) He's been an elite framer for the last few seasons...
Thriving at the bottom of the zone & on his glove side.
Jul 8, 2024 • 30 tweets • 12 min read
#BlueJays ⚾️🧵Daulton Varsho - Hitting

Included:
*Fixing a hole in his swing from '23
*Leaning into strengths exposes a weakness
*Pitchers are attacking one area
*What he can learn from Isaac Paredes

Let's start here: June 16 Grand Slam

After that swing, Varsho had a .766 OPS. 2.1 WAR after that game ranked top 30 in MLB, just behind Adley Rutschman, Rafael Devers & Fernando Tatis.

Since that HR, tho?
.109 avg, .337 OPS, 38% K rate, -0.3 WAR

And it's ironic what's been happening when you consider where the pitch was thrown on that Grand Slam
Jun 20, 2024 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
#BlueJays ⚾️🧵Eric Pardinho

*What we can learn from a prospect making his AAA debut

*Signed for more than a million bucks as a 16-year old in 2017...

*Identifying his big weapon

*The pitcher he reminds me of (but what he seems to be missing)

Let's start here: AAA means data! 3 groundball outs... 1 walk...
extended Pardinho's streak of 18 straight appearances without allowing an earned run!

But again, the best part about him moving up to AAA is getting statcast info on him.

And one particular pitch stood out to me. Image
Jun 13, 2024 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
#BlueJays #MLB ⚾️🧵A Deep Dive into One Play
The 1st & 3rd Stolen Base Attempt.

Wednesday - 6th inning, 2 out, 1st pitch
TOR 1 MIL 0
Brewers' best hitter up at the plate.
2 good runners on base.
MLB's best defence in the field. Brewers are the best, most aggressive baserunning team in baseball.

They've done this play a lot this year (successfully & unsuccessfully).
Jun 13, 2024 • 24 tweets • 9 min read
#BlueJays ⚾️🧵What's going on with Bo Bichette

*Milwaukee microcosms
*Putting this start in context
*2-strike approach vs before 2 strikes
*Attack Zones
*The dreaded "swing decisions"

Let's start here: Monday in Milwaukee... 1st pitch breaker, low & away, on the edge. Pop out. Before 2 strikes, swinging at a pitch on the edge, low & away, is just as unproductive on league-wide basis as swinging in chase/waste area. It's a pitcher's pitch, still likely to result in contact & it's likely going to be an out. More on that later. It was better Tuesday!
Oct 30, 2023 • 23 tweets • 8 min read
#BlueJays Offseason ⚾️🧵1⃣
Where'd the Power Go?

Included:
Theories, ISO, Pull Rates, Key Players, Bat Speed, Attack Angles & Questions

Let's start here:

"ISO" - Isolated Power (Slugging Pct - Batting Avg)
Blue Jays MLB Rank

2021 1st
2022 7th
2023 18th

How did this happen? Popular Theory: Offseason roster moves sapped lineup of power.

Fact or Fiction: Fiction.

Teoscar Hernandez in 2022:
25 HR, .491 Slug, .224 ISO in 534 PA

Belt/Schender in 2023:
27 HR, .519 Slug, .259 ISO in 544 PA
Oct 3, 2023 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
#BlueJays ⚾️🧵 Kevin Gausman vs Minnesota

Tipping or not?
Grips, Catchers, Pitch Locations & More

Let's start here: It's the biggest storyline heading into Game 1 later today. Gausman has struggled more against this team than any other team he's faced more than once as a Jay... Minnesota's on-base is more than 100 points higher than how the rest of the league has fared vs Gausman in 2022-23.

Gausman's strikeout to walk ratio is only 2:1 against the Twins, compared to 6:1 against the rest of Major League Baseball.

What's behind these high-level stats? Image
Jan 30, 2023 • 17 tweets • 8 min read
#BlueJays ⚾️🧵focusing on one of the league's most underrated young hitters: Alejandro Kirk

Included Below: An approach followed by many Jays; historical comps; a late-season slump (but how bad was it); and what I'd like to see just a bit more of in 2023... Let's start here: The underrated aspect to Kirk's hitting.
It's a rare combo to not strike out much, walk a lot & be a good hitter.

Kirk is one of just 5 hitters to rank in the 85th percentile or better in K-rate, walk-rate & xwOBA (really just a measure of hitting quality).
Jan 13, 2023 • 18 tweets • 9 min read
Ricky Tiedemann #BlueJays ⚾️🧵

This is about believing the hype, swag, (un)reasonable expectations, modern pitch usage, a near-unique delivery, historical comps & what's left to work on.

Let's start here: Prospect Rankings
33rd in MLB (1st in Org)
8th-ranked pitcher (2nd LHP) According to @baseball_ref, Tiedemann led ALL Minor League pitchers (75+ IP) with a 0.86 WHIP.

In his first pro season.

At age 19.

2.17 ERA, 117 K/29 BB.

Filthy, video game stuff & one of the things I like most about him is he carries himself like an ace.

He's got swag.
Jan 12, 2023 • 18 tweets • 8 min read
#BlueJays ⚾️🧵 Matt Chapman Defence
Analytics vs Jays Fans!

Let's start here: If last season happened decades ago, Chapman would have won Gold Glove.

Former winner, career-low in errors, "new team" narrative & a collection of hilite reel plays.

But we need to talk about this! And luckily, someone smarter than me already talked about this in season (see link below).

@mike_petriello dove in mid-season & found there were issues not with errors per se, but just plays not being made by Chapman

I wanted to expand on that!

mlb.com/news/how-conte…
Jan 12, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
What do you do when you're watching the Nuggets game & Jokic goes to the bench to rest?

You look at Zach Thompson cutters!

Mini #BlueJays ⚾️🧵starting with this: The problem was with cutters vs lefties & the problem was predictability. LHB vs Thompson Cutter
'21: .211 avg, .316 slug, .281 wOBA, 0 HR
'22: .378 avg, .778 slug, .513 wOBA, 4 HR

1st clip vs Freeman tipped me off: 1-1 count, pitch on edge, but he was all over it, pulling hands in, etc...

Then you look at heat maps of his cutter & a story develops.
Jan 11, 2023 • 20 tweets • 9 min read
#BlueJays ⚾️🧵Yusei Kikuchi Deep Dive

Another thread about belief in September stats, about finding comps for such a strange year & about mound position & usage.

Let's start here:

Reliever Strikeout Rate
1. Diaz 50.2%
2. Fairbanks 43.7%
3. Williams 40%
4. Kikuchi 39.8% Now, that leaderboard is obviously tongue-in-cheek (he only has 18 IP as RP), but his performance & aggressiveness in September was really intriguing for hard-core Jays fans.

But it was such a weird year.

Check out this list of 10+ strikeouts per 9, 5+ walks per 9 (100 IP min) Image
Jan 11, 2023 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
This legend is getting ready to say goodbye.

I’ve had lots of people ask over the years how such an undersized, underskilled athlete like myself could carry such an oversized amount of swagger, bravado, and shit-talking…

I tell them I got it from my Poppa, Don Coulson. ImageImageImageImage His swag was off the charts. ImageImageImageImage
Dec 24, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
So, the popular Day 1 bullet points on Varsho are elite defence, power, can't hit lefties. What else do you need to know about his game?

A short #BlueJays ⚾️🧵on their newest acquisition.

Let's start here: He can swipe bags!

25+ HR & 15+ SB - 2022 MLB Remember: new rules on pitch clocks, pick offs, and bigger bases will place a greater emphasis on the running game...

So here's another aspect of the game where Varsho will improve the Jays overall...
Dec 24, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
One reason the Jays season ended prematurely: Outfield D.

Raimel Tapia didn't make 2 plays that were at least possible to make & the Springer-Bichette collision was on a ball that should have been caught. Simple as that.

But this was a microcosm of a season-long issue. Saying goodbye to Teo, Lourdes & Tapia isn't about highlight grabs. It's about 50/50 balls, plays most of us honestly just forget. This was Toronto's weakness in the outfield. Too many catchable balls dropping.

Teoscar Hernandez: -3 Outs Above Average, jump -0.3 ft vs MLB avg
Dec 21, 2022 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Last #BlueJays ⚾️🧵 of 2022 is on one of the biggest questions heading into 2023 & beyond: Bo Bichette's defence.

Let's start here: Did you know Bichette's Def. Runs Saved was +7 from 2019-21? 12th among MLB SS in that time. But, Outs Above Average has never been a huge fan of Bichette's D & his DRS plummeted in 2022 to -16, which ranked 238th out of 243 MLB players to 500+ innings of defensive play.
Aug 13, 2022 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
A brief interruption from tennis for a short #NextLevel #BlueJays 🇨🇦⚾️🧵 on Jose Berrios.

It's about what happens when something stops working, how you try to adjust & a prediction about the off-season.

Let's start here: His 4-seam pitch chart from last night.... Easy to look at chart above & say, "he couldn't locate his 4-seamer" but when you look at tape, that's not where I land.

I see someone who has told himself he almost will never throw a 4-seamer over the plate (of note, of the 3 he threw over the plate: bunt single, HR, single)
Mar 27, 2021 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Gary Trent Jr. played his first game with the Raptors on Friday

It was an odd game (just the third time this season he played more than a handful of minutes & didn't hit a 3, for example) but there were signs of the player he's developed into this season...

(thread begins...) the first thing I wanted to lock into was what enabled him to be a 40% 3pt shooter & a couple qualities that jump out are his patience and footwork around the 3pt line:
Mar 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I was fiddling with @bball_ref @Stathead new "Span Finder" and one thing it allowed me to do was put Lowry's impact with the Raptors in context, especially if he stays another season or two...

We'll do it using "Box Plus Minus" which is a one-stat PER/WAR type measure So, here's the list of top BPM thru 9 seasons with one franchise:

It's filled with (current & future) Hall of Famers & some of the most underrated players of all-time.

Lowry's first 9 with TOR sits 30th, between Ewing's first 9 with NYK & Malone's first 9 with UTA (pretty good)
Mar 25, 2021 • 4 tweets • 8 min read
Happy 35th birthday @Klow7

No one your age should be taking this many hits.

Here are all of your drawn offensive fouls this season: Lowry's 2020-21 Hitlist (Part 1):
@KDTrey5
@DeAndre
@BenSimmons25
@jj_redick
@joshhart
@Zionwilliamson
@B_Ingram13
@J30_RANDLE
@TheTraeYoung
@CapelaClint
@FCHWPO
@dariusgarland22
@Holla_At_Rob33
@sdotcurry
@nunnbetter_
@Goran_Dragic
@KellyOlynyk
Mar 24, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
In honour of Kyle Lowry's potential final game as a Raptor, this twitter account will be Lowry-only tonight

First, here are his charges drawn (& NBA rank) over the last 5 years

'16-17 15 (12th)
'17-18 37 (1st)
'18-19 23 (6th)
'19-20 34 (1st)
'20-21 18 (1st) Toronto Raptors Charges Drawn Last 5 Seasons:

Kyle Lowry:
127 in 10,321 minutes (1 every ~81 mins)

All of his teammates:
129 in 76,868 minutes (1 every ~596 mins)

*So if Lowry draws 2 more charges than his teammates tonight he will equal their output over the last 5 yrs