Kevin Fatkin Profile picture
Dec 22 8 tweets 6 min read
Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps Vol.land. The $SPX dealer involvement is still very light. See screenshots for small impacts various Vanna/Gamma levels will have.
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Vanna/Gamma also very light. See screenshots for small impacts. The delta correlations indicate range. The 15-day delta momentum flipped bearish (-0.05679).
@Tradytics $SPY Dark Pools help paint the the picture further. Sig prints "magnet" prints occurred @ $380.6. Lots so support around there with overall sentiment from block trades being bearish. DP Density shows ~$380 as very cluttered.
Now, take a look at 5-day market net flow and delta positioning across the market. Puts continue to accumulate, most likely for downside protection. Market wide deltas shifted down as well. Flow divergences also showing mostly bearish.
Lastly, we need to make sure we keep all the upcoming macro number releases in mind as they are the big fundamental drivers of the market. We had jobless claims this morning, with PCE tomorrow. Jobless claims caused a nice sell off that is still going on $ES / $NQ.
As of now I am currently holding short positions on $NQ and will watch for a bottom on $SPY potentially around $380 - $381. At this point we just need to play the trend until we see a bottoming patterns emerge that get retested and hold.
If you are interested in viewing & using this data plus more with hundreds of other assets, use coupon code "FattyTrades" for discounts with Vol.land, Tradytics, Sonarlabs indicators & Elite Trader Fund funded futures accounts!

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More from @Fatty_Trades

Dec 23
This $NQ setup played out amazingly well. I wanted to touch on confirmations we can use to take advantage of this & any setup.

The session opens and we start dropping towards the area. We also have Trend Line Liquidity forming above that will likely be targeted. Image
The question on your mind is how do I know when to get in? It's a 20 point range including the FVG & OB so we don't just want to buy immediately, we need confirmation. For overnight confirmations on $NQ I prefer the 1m time frame. We close in and the FVG clears quickly. Image
Despite the move down, we see price begin to slowdown. This is our first queue to be ready. Now we need a confirmation candle. This can include bull hammers, engulfing, pin bars, etc. Ideally, we want to see a big increase in volume with price action confirmation. Image
Read 11 tweets
Dec 21
Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps Vol.land. The $SPX Vanna impact is minimal at these levels. Gamma is cluttered, with small amounts of support/resistance scattered in this zone. Could indicate more of a range day. ImageImage
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Vanna/Gamma also a bit of a choppy mess. Scattered weak levels in this zone. The 3-day Deltas indicate highest probability of staying in a range. ImageImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Dec 18
I find it super interesting how often dealer data correlates with price action. Based on the way deltas are currently structured on $SPY, historically we've seen up to a 2.8% drop in price over the next 5 days with extreme volatility. This puts right into a major OB on the Daily.
In this instance, I'm using the @Tradytics Dealer Positioning dashboard and viewing deltas, which correlates current dealer side positioning with $SPY moves going back to 6/2021. It's one of the easiest, most effect ways to view the impact delta structure has had historically.
I find it refreshing how it uses statistical data and reflects everything in probabilities. I always pair it with other data, but tonight I just wanted to see how it paired with the chart. It always lines up with key areas & gives extra meaning behind the likely "buy zones".
Read 5 tweets
Dec 16
I haven't see anything yet that makes me feel good about longs since the open. Just constant hard rejections out of OB after OB on $NQ 3m. Just be careful if you're going for a DMD play. Do not force it. Do not ignore price action. Image
Okay looking like I might try some longs if I can find a good entry but I'm going to be cautious around bearish OB's. Not going to assume they break, just take profits when we approach.
Okay out on ES, looking to reload if we get signs of buy up Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 16
Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOps Vol.land. The $SPX Vanna picture has changed dramatically with only having repellents at the extremes! Same with Gamma, we have areas of positive gamma above & below that can be S/R but it's minimal! ImageImage
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Vanna impact similar to $SPX. Gamma shows support @ $384/$388 & resistance @ $393/$396, with accelerants in between. The 5-day delta correlations favor the bears! ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Dec 16
With @Tradytics Dealers Market Diary (DMD) on many minds for tomorrows OPEX event, lets talk about how it played out on 11/18/22 $ES (works for $SPY / $SPX / $NQ / $QQQ / $YM / $DIA / $IWM / $RTY as well) to get an idea of how we can execute tomorrow!
The London session printed its low @ 3943.50. The NY open created two notable bearish OB's and consumed liquidity from London bull move on its way down (note - referencing 3m chart).
The DMD looked similar to the way it looks for 12/16. It wasn't as heavily skewed with negative deltas but was still notable, so we were expecting a bullish reversal EoD. The question is when & where?
Read 12 tweets

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