Nuclear #fusion will not only come too late to help solve the #climatecrisis. Even in the long run it will not be the unlimited energy source that some are dreaming of. The reason is basic physics, and anyone can do the back-of-envelope calculation. 🧵1/
The problem is that all human energy use ends up as heat. That's no problem now: our current global energy use corresponds to 0.04 Watt/sqm (that's per square metre of Earth surface). The human-caused CO2 increase has a far stronger warming effect: 2.1 W/sqm, following IPCC. 2/
But our energy use (here also in W/sqm) is growing exponentially by 2.3 %/year, 10-fold per century. What does this mean for the future? The Master thesis by Peter Steiglechner @PIK_Climate investigated this in 2018 using a global climate model. Figures taken from his work. 3/
But first, back of envelope: a 10-fold increase in energy use from the current results in a heat flux of 0.4 W/sqm.
With the standard IPCC climate sensitivity that results in 0.3 °C global warming. Oops, now this is a problem, coming on top of greenhouse warming! 4/
Here's two scenarios to 2100 Peter studied (black lines): 2% increase per year, and a more moderate IPCC scenario called SSP5. That’s less than a ten-fold increase. BUT: the heat release is not globally uniform. Unlike for CO2, it is concentrated where we live, on land. 5/
That is why the (admittedly rather coarse) climate model shows warming concentrated over Northern Hemisphere land, reaching 0.2 – 0.4 °C warming there by 2100 (not even yet in equilibrium). And we’re already struggling to prevent every 0.1 °C of further warming! /6
In terms of heat release, nuclear power (fusion or fission) is just as bad as coal.
Renewables are different: they use energy from wind, sun, tides or geothermal which is already in the climate system and will end up as heat anyway, whether we use it or not. /7
(In case you want to say now: but extra heat is radiated into space! This is of course already taken into account. The Earth must get warmer to radiate more, that is what the climate sensitivity describes.) /8
The bottom line is: if humanity wants to use a lot more energy in future, nuclear power can't be the solution. Not just not for the next decades, but also in the long run renewable energies are the only sustainable solution. /9
These technologies we already have, they are growing exponentially and are safe and cheap. (And don't tell me the sun doesn't shine at night - energy system experts already account for that, believe it or not.) /10
A similar argument regarding waste heat was recently made in a peer-reviewed paper in Nature Physics as well. Check it out if you like. /11 nature.com/articles/s4156…
Someone brought up the energy expended in building the plant, incl. mining. For wind power that’s at most a few % of the electricity generated - in this example under 1% for 20y turbine life. Nuclear plants add 300% of the generated power as heat to the 🌍 at 33% efficiency.
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Important new study shows that current climate models underestimate the human-caused slowing of the #AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), because they neglect freshwater influx from Greenland melt and other sources. /1 nature.com/articles/s4156…
The study shows "that accounting for upper-end meltwater input in historical simulations significantly improves the data–model agreement on past changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, yielding a slowdown of 0.46 sverdrups per decade since 1950." /2
In our 2018 Nature article (Caesar et al.) we estimated ~3 Sv slowing since 1950, i.e. -0.4 Sv/decade, based on the observed 'cold blob' in the Atlantic west of Britain. /3
Latest NASA global temperature data.
Earth has never been hotter since Homo sapiens discovered agriculture in the early Holocene. Likely even since 120,000 years ago.
Fossil coal, oil and gas emissions caused it.
We need to stop making it worse.
Yes, we can if we want to. 🧵
Here is the last 2023 years of data for CO2 (from Antarctic ice core data) and global temperature (from numerous sources of proxy data from around the world, such as sediment and ice cores). Check it out: pastglobalchanges.org/science/wg/2k-…
And here's global temperature for the past 24,000 years - since the last Ice Age! Earth is now warming 20 times faster than at the end of the last Ice Age.
(Ice ages are caused by the Earth orbit's Milankovich cycles - modern warming is not.)
Source: nature.com/articles/s4158…
One feature of global warming is the *energy imbalance* of the Earth: we are absorbing more energy from the sun than we send back to space in form of thermal radiation.
If Earth’s climate were in equilibrium, these two numbers would exactly balance.
The main reason they don’t is the thermal inertia of the ocean. Because the ocean takes a long time to warm up, the warming of the surface ocean lags behind the warming of the land areas.
So the ocean remains cooler and therefore emits less thermal radiation.
93% of the energy imbalance is due to that relatively cool ocean.
If the ocean surface warming didn’t lag behind the land areas, the imbalance would thus largely disappear.
I’ve seen some crazy claims, like: if the ocean did not absorb most of the energy imbalance, then that amount of heat would end up in the atmosphere, heating the Earth by 36 degrees Celsius.
That’s not how this works.
The ocean with its large heat capacity and therefore large heat uptake causes most of the energy imbalance of our planet at a time of rapid global warming. If the ocean didn’t do that, the Earth would only take up a fraction of the heat it does now. It would be a little bit warmer (a few tenths of a degree C) but nothing like 36 C!
That misunderstanding of ocean thermal inertia, is linked to another one: That the Earth will keep warming for decades after we reach zero CO2 emissions, as the oceans catch up with warming. That’s also incorrect.
That idea is not fundamentally wrong, but there is a balancing effect: the CO2 uptake inertia. While the ocean continues warming for some decades, it will also continue taking up CO2 for some decades after we stopped emitting, because of a CO2 concentration imbalance between atmosphere and upper ocean. So the CO2 concentration will decline, and from the point where we reach zero emissions, the warming will likely stop right away.
A third misunderstanding (that one promoted by climate skeptics) is that we do not need to reduce our CO2 emissions to zero in order to stabilize the concentration, because the ocean takes up 25% of our emissions. However, that is primarily just due to a temporary imbalance and will stop after a few decades, just like the heat uptake will. Much of the increased CO2 will actually remain for many tens of thousands of years in the atmosphere (unless our descendants actively pull it out of the atmosphere).
Wie hängen solche Extremniederschläge wie derzeit mit dem Klimawandel zusammen? Kurzer🧵. 1/x
Erstens enthält mit Feuchtigkeit gesättigte Luft pro Grad Erwärmung 7% mehr Wasserdampf. Das ist ein Gesetz von 1834, ich habe es hier erklärt:
Zweitens kommt mehr Wassernachschub durch Verdunstung, wenn das Mittelmeer wie derzeit wärmer ist. 2/x spiegel.de/wissenschaft/c…
Das nennen wir in der Forschung thermodynamische Effekte. Hinzu kommen Veränderungen in der Wetterdynamik, etwa dem Verlauf des Jetstreams oder der zunehmenden Dauer von Wetterlagen (relevant bei mehrtägigem Dauerregen). Das erklärt unser Kommentar. 3/x iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Vor 22 Jahren - am 12./13. August 2002 - fiel eine nie zuvor in Deutschland innnert 24 Stunden gemessene Regenmenge: 312 mm. Bald stand Dresden unter Wasser, es gab über 11 Milliarden € Schaden. Mein Welt-Interview von damals. 🧵 pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/welt-i…
Inzwischen ist die von mir erwähnte Zunahme der Extremniederschläge noch viel deutlicher in den Messdaten der Wetterstationen hervorgetreten.
Die Häufung liegt inzwischen weit außerhalb der historischen Schwankungen. nature.com/articles/s4161…
2002 dachten wir noch, Begrenzung der Erwärmung auf 2 Grad würde reichen. Doch im Lichte neuer Erkenntnisse, u.a. über Klimakipppunkte, hat sich die Weltgemeinschaft 2015 im Pariser Abkommen auf die Begrenzung auf 1,5 Grad verständigt. Inzwischen leider kaum noch zu schaffen.