Nuclear #fusion will not only come too late to help solve the #climatecrisis. Even in the long run it will not be the unlimited energy source that some are dreaming of. The reason is basic physics, and anyone can do the back-of-envelope calculation. 🧵1/
The problem is that all human energy use ends up as heat. That's no problem now: our current global energy use corresponds to 0.04 Watt/sqm (that's per square metre of Earth surface). The human-caused CO2 increase has a far stronger warming effect: 2.1 W/sqm, following IPCC. 2/
But our energy use (here also in W/sqm) is growing exponentially by 2.3 %/year, 10-fold per century. What does this mean for the future? The Master thesis by Peter Steiglechner @PIK_Climate investigated this in 2018 using a global climate model. Figures taken from his work. 3/
But first, back of envelope: a 10-fold increase in energy use from the current results in a heat flux of 0.4 W/sqm.
With the standard IPCC climate sensitivity that results in 0.3 °C global warming. Oops, now this is a problem, coming on top of greenhouse warming! 4/
Here's two scenarios to 2100 Peter studied (black lines): 2% increase per year, and a more moderate IPCC scenario called SSP5. That’s less than a ten-fold increase. BUT: the heat release is not globally uniform. Unlike for CO2, it is concentrated where we live, on land. 5/
That is why the (admittedly rather coarse) climate model shows warming concentrated over Northern Hemisphere land, reaching 0.2 – 0.4 °C warming there by 2100 (not even yet in equilibrium). And we’re already struggling to prevent every 0.1 °C of further warming! /6
In terms of heat release, nuclear power (fusion or fission) is just as bad as coal.
Renewables are different: they use energy from wind, sun, tides or geothermal which is already in the climate system and will end up as heat anyway, whether we use it or not. /7
(In case you want to say now: but extra heat is radiated into space! This is of course already taken into account. The Earth must get warmer to radiate more, that is what the climate sensitivity describes.) /8
The bottom line is: if humanity wants to use a lot more energy in future, nuclear power can't be the solution. Not just not for the next decades, but also in the long run renewable energies are the only sustainable solution. /9
These technologies we already have, they are growing exponentially and are safe and cheap. (And don't tell me the sun doesn't shine at night - energy system experts already account for that, believe it or not.) /10
A similar argument regarding waste heat was recently made in a peer-reviewed paper in Nature Physics as well. Check it out if you like. /11 nature.com/articles/s4156…
Someone brought up the energy expended in building the plant, incl. mining. For wind power that’s at most a few % of the electricity generated - in this example under 1% for 20y turbine life. Nuclear plants add 300% of the generated power as heat to the 🌍 at 33% efficiency.
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1. Extreme rainfall increases as global temperatures rise.
There’s a basic law of physics behind that (Clausius Claperon Law, known since 1834, see Wikipedia).
And numerous analyses of weather station data prove it. See e.g. ours. nature.com/articles/s4161…
2. Global warming is caused by fossil fuel emissions. That is why it was predicted correctly before it was even observed. And even by scientists from fossil fuel companies like Exxon Mobil. But their bosses decided to tell you a different story.
A new study by van Westen et al. shows that the #tippingpoint of the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC is also found in a high-resolution ocean model which resolves ocean eddies. A first, but no surprise to AMOC experts. 🧵
To find the tipping point you need to do a very slow, long hysteresis model run. That is so computationally expensive that it hasn't been tried before. All models which have tried show this tipping point - we published a first intercomparison in 2005. 🧵 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
So all kind of models since Stommel's 1961 box model show it, due to the destabilising salt transport feedback. The new model also shows the well-known sea surface temperature fingerprint pattern of an #AMOC shutdown: the 'cold blob', and warming along the American coast. 🧵
Zur Erinnerung: Kernfusion ist /keine/ Klimalösung sondern klimaschädlich. (Nur falls jemand auf die Idee kommt, diese Träume von Merz mit Klimaschutzgeldern zu subventionieren.)
Kurzer Thread in 5 Bildern.
2024 war global das heißeste Jahr seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen, mit 1,6 Grad über dem Temperaturniveau des späten 19. Jahrhunderts. Kleiner Thread mit Datengrafiken dazu. 🧵
In Deutschland war es ebenfalls das wärmste Jahr seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen - allerdings schon 3,1 Grad wärmer. Weil Deutschland ein Landgebiet ist, erwärmt es sich doppelt so schnell wie der globale Mittelwert, der 71% Meeresfläche enthält. 🧵
Diese moderne Erderwärmung ist praktisch komplett vom Menschen verursacht. Natürliche Faktoren haben weniger als + oder - 0,1 °C beigetragen. Das ist eine Kernaussage des Weltklimarats IPCC. Eher - als +, weil die Sonnenaktivität etwas abgenommen hat. 🧵
Important new study shows that current climate models underestimate the human-caused slowing of the #AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), because they neglect freshwater influx from Greenland melt and other sources. /1 nature.com/articles/s4156…
The study shows "that accounting for upper-end meltwater input in historical simulations significantly improves the data–model agreement on past changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, yielding a slowdown of 0.46 sverdrups per decade since 1950." /2
In our 2018 Nature article (Caesar et al.) we estimated ~3 Sv slowing since 1950, i.e. -0.4 Sv/decade, based on the observed 'cold blob' in the Atlantic west of Britain. /3
Latest NASA global temperature data.
Earth has never been hotter since Homo sapiens discovered agriculture in the early Holocene. Likely even since 120,000 years ago.
Fossil coal, oil and gas emissions caused it.
We need to stop making it worse.
Yes, we can if we want to. 🧵
Here is the last 2023 years of data for CO2 (from Antarctic ice core data) and global temperature (from numerous sources of proxy data from around the world, such as sediment and ice cores). Check it out: pastglobalchanges.org/science/wg/2k-…
And here's global temperature for the past 24,000 years - since the last Ice Age! Earth is now warming 20 times faster than at the end of the last Ice Age.
(Ice ages are caused by the Earth orbit's Milankovich cycles - modern warming is not.)
Source: nature.com/articles/s4158…