Nuclear #fusion will not only come too late to help solve the #climatecrisis. Even in the long run it will not be the unlimited energy source that some are dreaming of. The reason is basic physics, and anyone can do the back-of-envelope calculation. 🧵1/
The problem is that all human energy use ends up as heat. That's no problem now: our current global energy use corresponds to 0.04 Watt/sqm (that's per square metre of Earth surface). The human-caused CO2 increase has a far stronger warming effect: 2.1 W/sqm, following IPCC. 2/
But our energy use (here also in W/sqm) is growing exponentially by 2.3 %/year, 10-fold per century. What does this mean for the future? The Master thesis by Peter Steiglechner @PIK_Climate investigated this in 2018 using a global climate model. Figures taken from his work. 3/
But first, back of envelope: a 10-fold increase in energy use from the current results in a heat flux of 0.4 W/sqm.
With the standard IPCC climate sensitivity that results in 0.3 °C global warming. Oops, now this is a problem, coming on top of greenhouse warming! 4/
Here's two scenarios to 2100 Peter studied (black lines): 2% increase per year, and a more moderate IPCC scenario called SSP5. That’s less than a ten-fold increase. BUT: the heat release is not globally uniform. Unlike for CO2, it is concentrated where we live, on land. 5/
That is why the (admittedly rather coarse) climate model shows warming concentrated over Northern Hemisphere land, reaching 0.2 – 0.4 °C warming there by 2100 (not even yet in equilibrium). And we’re already struggling to prevent every 0.1 °C of further warming! /6
In terms of heat release, nuclear power (fusion or fission) is just as bad as coal.
Renewables are different: they use energy from wind, sun, tides or geothermal which is already in the climate system and will end up as heat anyway, whether we use it or not. /7
(In case you want to say now: but extra heat is radiated into space! This is of course already taken into account. The Earth must get warmer to radiate more, that is what the climate sensitivity describes.) /8
The bottom line is: if humanity wants to use a lot more energy in future, nuclear power can't be the solution. Not just not for the next decades, but also in the long run renewable energies are the only sustainable solution. /9
These technologies we already have, they are growing exponentially and are safe and cheap. (And don't tell me the sun doesn't shine at night - energy system experts already account for that, believe it or not.) /10
A similar argument regarding waste heat was recently made in a peer-reviewed paper in Nature Physics as well. Check it out if you like. /11 nature.com/articles/s4156…
Someone brought up the energy expended in building the plant, incl. mining. For wind power that’s at most a few % of the electricity generated - in this example under 1% for 20y turbine life. Nuclear plants add 300% of the generated power as heat to the 🌍 at 33% efficiency.
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Short thread on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation #AMOC, which brings a huge amount of heat to the northern Atlantic.
If it slows, the region west of Britain cools. And the Gulf Stream moves closer to the US coast, causing warming there.
Both are already happening, as satellite data show. 1/6
Also air temperature data show: remarkably, the northern Atlantic is the only part of the world which has cooled since the 19th Century. 2/6
Could the 'cold blob' in the northern Atlantic (left) be caused by more heat loss at the surface?
To the contrary: the ocean heat loss has declined there (right). And increased where it got warmer, off the US coast. 3/6
Kurzer Thread zu meinem neuen Paper. Es geht um die Atlantikzirkulation (#AMOC genannt), die riesige Wärmemengen in den nördlichen Atlantik schafft. Schwächt sie sich ab, kühlt sich der Atlantik westlich der britischen Inseln ab. Und der warme Golfstrom rückt näher an die US-Küste, dort wird es besonders warm. Beides passiert bereits, wie Satellitendaten zeigen. 1/6
Auch in den Daten der globalen Lufttemperaturen sieht man: der nördliche Atlantik ist die einzige Weltregion, die sich seit dem 19. Jahrhundert abgekühlt hat! 2/6
Aber könnte die Kälteblase im nördlich Atlantik (links) nicht daran liegen, dass der Ozean dort mehr Wärme durch die Oberfläche verliert?
Das rechte Bild zeigt: im Gegenteil, der Wärmeverlust an der Oberfläche hat dort abgenommen. Und vor der US-Küste zugenommen, wo die Meerestemperatur gestiegen ist. 3/6
New study: the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”.
The paper by Dutch colleagues adds more weight to recent warnings, such as the OECD Climate Tipping Points report of 2022 and the Global Tipping Points report published 2023.
Nicht veräppeln lassen: der "Strippenzieher der WerteUnion" Markus Krall verbreitet Klimaleugner-Lügen. Dieser Eisbohrkern aus Grönland von Richard Alley endet im 19. Jh, vor Beginn der modernen Erderwärmung. Alley hat sich längst in der NYTimes gegen diesen Fake gewehrt. 🧵1/4
Mit solchen Lügenmärchen passt Krall gut zur WerteUnion, die Klimaforschung als "Müll-Wissenschaft" diffamiert. (Sie könnte ja auch stolz sein, dass Forschung aus 🇩🇪 auch auf diesem Gebiet Weltklasse ist...) Zum Klimamanifest der WerteUnion ⬇️ . 2/4 spektrum.de/kolumne/das-kl…
Die AfD macht es nicht anders.
Wem deutsche Wälder und Küsten, Landwirtschaft und Städte am Herzen liegen, dem ist klar: Klimaschutz ist Heimatschutz.
AfD und WerteUnion stehen dagegen auf Seiten fossiler Konzerne auf Kosten der Menschen in 🇩🇪. 3/4 scilogs.spektrum.de/klimalounge/he…
"Wenn die auf sozialen Medien bei mir kommentieren blocke ich die einfach. Es ist alles hundert mal widerlegt worden, und wir haben einfach nicht Zeit uns damit jetzt noch aufzuhalten."
Dabei geht’s natürlich nicht um andere Meinungen - die sind immer ein normaler und wichtiger Teil des wissenschaftlichen Diskurses.
Es geht um falsche und unbelegte Behauptungen, gefälschte Grafiken, Verschwörungstheorien und Beleidigungen.
For all interested in the tipping point of the Atlantic overturning circulation : here's Henk Dijkstra's recent talk.
The tipping point has been confirmed in a state-of-art climate model, and a novel early warning indicator suggests we're heading there. buff.ly/3QU5dtZ
The novel early warning indicator is based on a diagnostic I proposed in this paper in 1996: pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Public…
And the hysteresis in the coupled GCM is consistent with our hysteresis intercomparison results for intermediate complexity models, published in 2005. That is important confirmation that this holds for the full model complexity spectrum!