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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
Dec 22, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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The ongoing #Iran_protests reached their three-month anniversary on December 16. CTP and @TheStudyofWar present here visualizations produced from the open-source data to further inform the public discourse on this important moment in Iranian history. criticalthreats.org/analysis/data-…
This movement has seen several significant spikes in protest activity around preplanned dates followed by relative lulls in protest activity.
Protest activity decreased significantly between mid-November and late December following the regime’s harsh crackdown but has not yet stopped despite regime brutality and pressure.
Tehran, Esfahan, Kurdistan, and West Azerbaijan provinces account for nearly 40 percent of observed protest activity.
The remaining provinces fall roughly into two other tranches. The middle tranche includes other major population centers, such as Khorasan Razavi Province, and border regions, where anti-regime sentiment is high and marginalized ethnic populations are concentrated.
Protest activity varies significantly by day of the week and by province.
CTP will continue to update our assessments and data visualizations as the anti-regime movement in Iran continues to evolve. Follow the daily updates produced by CTP and the @TheStudyofWar for more analysis and information.

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
Jul 28
NEW | Al Shabaab captured Mahas, a district capital in central Somalia that the Somali government and its allies had controlled since 2014.

The advance sets conditions for the group to escalate attacks on major towns across central Somalia, including along the Ethiopian border. Image
Mahas is the group's latest gain in central Somalia this year, where it has recaptured swaths of territory that it lost in 2022.

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Jul 5
NEW | An unspecified high-ranking Iranian official cited by Amwaj Media on July 4 reported that Iran plans to resume indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States, but the conditions that Iran will reportedly present would require unspecified guarantees that the US would not strike Iran. 🧵Image
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Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 28
NEW | US and Israeli airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) between June 12 and 24 reportedly destroyed components of Iran’s nuclear program that would be necessary for weaponization. The strikes destroyed the Uranium Metal Conversion Plant at the ENTC, which Iran could have used to transform uranium gas into dense metal in a process called metallization. This process is one of the last steps required to form the explosive core of an atomic bomb.Image
Iran may have begun repair operations at the Natanz Enrichment Complex. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 27 shows that Iran has filled in a crater that was formed by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. The imagery shows what appears to be two tents and a truck present at the impact site.
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Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 28
US and Israeli airstrikes severely set back Iran’s enrichment capabilities, but Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile poses a long-term threat if Iran chooses to rebuild its nuclear program.

The degradation of Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities will temporarily prevent Iran from enriching to 90 percent weapons-grade uranium, though it could do so if it can install surviving centrifuges at a new facility or retains surviving centrifuges at another facility.

It is unclear if Iran retains the know-how or facilities needed to build a weapon after Israel’s decapitation campaign targeting nuclear scientists and the US-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities.Image

A top Israeli official said Israel is preparing to resume operations against Iran if necessary. Israel seeks to retain its air superiority over Iranian airspace, prevent reconstruction of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and inhibit Iranian support to members of the Axis of Resistance.

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The Iranian regime continues to take counterintelligence steps that likely reflect the regime’s paranoia about Israeli infiltration.

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Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 24
NEW | Malian junta leader Assimi Goïta met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23.

The visit comes amid a spiraling security situation in Mali and across the Sahel that undermines Russia's credibility as an effective partner.🧵Image
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Goïta and Putin signed an agreement on civil nuclear energy cooperation and agreed to increase trade.

The two countries are already close security partners. Thousands of Russian soldiers are in Mali supporting the junta against Salafi-jihadi & separatist rebels. 2/7
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Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 23
The Kremlin continues to only diplomatically support Iran, showcasing the limitations in the Russian-Iranian strategic relationship.

ISW continues to assess that Russia is constrained in its ability to provide direct support to Iran due to its war in Ukraine and has likely resigned itself to providing diplomatic overtures for the time being.Image
Russian officials are attempting to influence conversations about increasing NATO defense spending by misrepresenting Russia's ongoing efforts to restructure and expand Russia's military capabilities as a defensive reaction to NATO.
Putin also acknowledged his ongoing efforts to empower Russia's internal security services in order to safeguard regime stability and internal security.
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