NEW | The Gaza ceasefire agreement, which the Israeli cabinet will vote to approve tomorrow, demonstrates that Hamas offered Israel several serious concessions. (1/10) The ceasefire agreement does not guarantee an end to the war. The short, 42-day first phase bans Israeli reconnaissance overflight of the Strip, but this would not give Hamas serious military advantage at this time. (2/10)

NEW | Iran conducted an air defense exercise for the second time in recent days.

This activity reflects Iranian concerns about possible airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, as Tehran has continued to expand its nuclear program.

Read below to learn more: The Artesh—the conventional Iranian military—exercises tested the manned and unmanned aircrafts as well as the following air defense systems, according to Iranian state media:

NEW | The Islamic State has evolved and expanded globally since ISIS' territorial defeat in 2019, enabling it to orchestrate and inspire attacks on the West.

IS may further strengthen by exploiting security vacuums in Syria and Africa. 🧵

IS retains a global network of affiliates despite its loss of its statelet in Iraq and Syria.

Its decentralized system helps coordinate between the group’s personnel in local theaters, the global IS network, and central IS leadership.

Chart via @ToreRHamming

NEW | An SDF delegation met with the leader of HTS to negotiate “military issues” while SDF forces continued to fight Turkish-backed militias in northern Syria. (1/7) The SDF is almost certainly both unable and unwilling to subordinate itself to the HTS-organized Defense Ministry at this time, given the organizational tasks implicit in that effort and the ongoing fighting with Turkish-backed forces. (2/7)

NEW I Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia's demand that Ukraine renounce its right to sovereignty and territorial integrity as a precondition to start peace talks, indicating that Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations. 1/9 The Kremlin appears to be prioritizing Russia's force generation requirements and domestic political stability over efforts to mitigate economic pressure and labor shortages going into 2025. 2/9

NEW | Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict. This most-dangerous scenario is not a foregone conclusion, however. 🧵 (1/8)


Some reports indicate that HTS-affiliated individuals have killed, arrested, and kidnapped Alawites and other Syrians for affiliation with the Assad regime. (2/8)

NEW: Building Syria’s Army | Syrian armed groups agreed to “dissolve” themselves and merge under the HTS-led Defense Ministry.

This does not mean that Syrian opposition forces will answer to the Defense Ministry in practice, however. 🧵

It is not immediately clear what groups outside of HTS-led and SNA-led structures participated in the meeting, nor is it clear what concrete steps the groups agreed to as part of dissolving themselves and merging under the HTS-led Defense Ministry.

NEW I The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Syrian interim government stated it will discuss mechanisms for disarming and dissolving the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) with SDF leadership, according to unspecified SDF sources. 1/8

The sources cited by a Syrian journalist claimed that the interim government will avoid any negotiation to establish a decentralized system that grants some autonomy to Kurdish-governed areas. 2/8

NEW | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed readiness to help Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) form a new political system in Syria. Erdogan said that Turkey could offer expertise and guidance to this end. 🧵 (1/7)


The SDF and SNA continued to clash along the lines of control in Aleppo Province on December 20. The head of the SDF media center reported “fierce clashes” on Qere Qozaq bridge, which spans the Euphrates River. (2/7)

NEW I Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he should have violated the ceasefire he had imposed on Ukraine in 2014 by launching a full-scale invasion even earlier when asked to reflect on his 2022 decision to attack. 1/12
Putin insisted that negotiations with Ukraine must be based on the same demands he made before the invasion and at the moment of Russia's greatest territorial gains, despite the fact that Ukraine has secured Kyiv and liberated much of the territory his forces held at that time. 2/12

NEW I Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces. 1/6

Turkey is threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas while also claiming that it will not intervene if HTS addresses the concerns Turkey has about the SDF "properly." 2/6

NEW | Russia is reinforcing its positions in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa as it continues to consolidate and withdraw some of its forces from Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. (Image 4: @Maxar) 🧵⬇️


Russian shipments from Syria to Libya are likely setting conditions for Russia to mitigate or replace its reliance on its Syrian bases by upgrading Russian positions in Libya and securing permission for a Russian naval base on Libya’s Mediterranean coast. 2/8

NEW | Syrian opposition forces toppled the Bashar al Assad regime after only 11 days of fighting. HTS under Julani is beginning to consolidate power in Damascus and across formerly regime-controlled territory. (1/5) HTS-affiliated forces appear to be taking control of the western bank of the Euphrates River, which the SDF had seized from the Syrian regime. The SDF clashed with the Turkish-backed SNA east of Aleppo City. (2/5)

NEW | Opposition forces may continue their rapid advance toward Homs City after capturing Hama City on December 5. Regime forces are likely collapsing as they retreat southwards towards Homs City. (1/8)
The regime does not appear to have established any defensive line between Hama City and the Orontes River. (2/8)

NEW I Russia is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria, which may suggest that Russia does not intend to send significant reinforcements to support Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in the near term. 1/6 The US announced additional military assistance worth $725 million for Ukraine on December 2. 2/6

NEW | The Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly told Lebanese Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire agreement that would require Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River. (1/6)


This report, assuming it is accurate, highlights the extent to which Iran lacks the capability or willingness to defend the Axis of Resistance against Israel. (2/6)

NEW | Ukrainian military officials warned that Russian forces may intensify assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast in the near future.

It is unclear if the Russian military intends to conduct a unified offensive operation or separate assaults.
Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn told Reuters in a November 11 article that Russian forces are moving trained assault groups to forward positions in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

Hezbollah is relying on rocket and mortar shelling to harass Israeli positions and has abandoned high-end supplies.

Learn why @brian_cartr assesses Hezbollah’s forces are in disarray🧵⬇️
Rockets and mortars cannot defend ground alone, and Hezbollah has not conducted any sophisticated multi-stage ambushes.

Hezbollah is not combining rocket and mortar attacks with infantry, which would be necessary to effectively defend against Israeli attacks.

Israel has routed Hezbollah units, at least the immediate border area.

Hezbollah has so far failed to effectively execute any serious military undertaking at scale.

Read the analysis from @brian_cartr 🧵⬇️
The IDF entered Lebanon in force on October 1 after a months-long air and ground campaign that disrupted Hezbollah’s command structure.

Israel’s persistent airstrikes likely continue to disrupt Hezbollah reorganization efforts.

NEW | The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted three waves of strikes into Iran on October 25. The strikes were in response to the large-scale ballistic missile attack that Iran launched against Israel on October 1. The IDF targeted around 20 locations around Tehran and western Iran, including vital air defense assets and facilities tied to the Iranian drone and missile programs. 1/5 The IDF in particular struck four S-300 air defense batteries, which are Russian-made and the most advanced air defense system that Iran operates. That the IDF hit these batteries highlights the relative vulnerabilities of the S-300, especially against advanced platforms like the F-35 fighter jet. 2/5

NEW | A senior Israeli intelligence official told Iranian anti-regime media that Israel’s recent operations in Lebanon have disrupted Iran’s ability to provide funds to Hezbollah. (1/9) Hezbollah’s chief media official said that Hezbollah is attempting to capture Israeli soldiers. (2/9)