NEW | An unspecified high-ranking Iranian official cited by Amwaj Media on July 4 reported that Iran plans to resume indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States, but the conditions that Iran will reportedly present would require unspecified guarantees that the US would not strike Iran. 🧵 Such a guarantee would be inconsistent with the Trump administration’s stated position on future strikes on Iran’s facilities. The unspecified Iranian official told Amwaj that Iran is seeking a guarantee in negotiations that the United States will not conduct any additional strikes on Iran.”

NEW | US and Israeli airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) between June 12 and 24 reportedly destroyed components of Iran’s nuclear program that would be necessary for weaponization. The strikes destroyed the Uranium Metal Conversion Plant at the ENTC, which Iran could have used to transform uranium gas into dense metal in a process called metallization. This process is one of the last steps required to form the explosive core of an atomic bomb. Iran may have begun repair operations at the Natanz Enrichment Complex. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 27 shows that Iran has filled in a crater that was formed by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. The imagery shows what appears to be two tents and a truck present at the impact site.

US and Israeli airstrikes severely set back Iran’s enrichment capabilities, but Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile poses a long-term threat if Iran chooses to rebuild its nuclear program.

The degradation of Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities will temporarily prevent Iran from enriching to 90 percent weapons-grade uranium, though it could do so if it can install surviving centrifuges at a new facility or retains surviving centrifuges at another facility.

It is unclear if Iran retains the know-how or facilities needed to build a weapon after Israel’s decapitation campaign targeting nuclear scientists and the US-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities.

A top Israeli official said Israel is preparing to resume operations against Iran if necessary. Israel seeks to retain its air superiority over Iranian airspace, prevent reconstruction of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and inhibit Iranian support to members of the Axis of Resistance.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened to conduct retaliatory attacks against a potential Israeli strike.

NEW | Malian junta leader Assimi Goïta met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23.

The visit comes amid a spiraling security situation in Mali and across the Sahel that undermines Russia's credibility as an effective partner.🧵


Goïta and Putin signed an agreement on civil nuclear energy cooperation and agreed to increase trade.

The two countries are already close security partners. Thousands of Russian soldiers are in Mali supporting the junta against Salafi-jihadi & separatist rebels. 2/7

The Kremlin continues to only diplomatically support Iran, showcasing the limitations in the Russian-Iranian strategic relationship.

ISW continues to assess that Russia is constrained in its ability to provide direct support to Iran due to its war in Ukraine and has likely resigned itself to providing diplomatic overtures for the time being. Russian officials are attempting to influence conversations about increasing NATO defense spending by misrepresenting Russia's ongoing efforts to restructure and expand Russia's military capabilities as a defensive reaction to NATO.

NEW | Foreign companies in the Sahel are under growing pressure from both JNIM & the Sahelian juntas.

JNIM has launched an attack campaign against foreign worksites, while the juntas have continued trying to assert greater control over their countries’ natural resources.⬇️ 1/6 JNIM has attacked foreign worksites two times in June and threatened that all companies operating in Mali must secure permission from JNIM to continue operations in early June.

JNIM had only attacked foreign companies in 2025 two other times, both in May 2025. 2/6

NEW | Iranian officials have expressed interest in negotiating an end to the Israel-Iran conflict but have not moderated their negotiating positions from before the conflict.

Iranian proposals that do not fulfill US demands, such as the US demand for zero Iranian uranium enrichment, will likely preclude Iran from reaching a new nuclear deal with the United States and a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran War.

The IDF has continued to strike Iranian nuclear, military, and energy infrastructure. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on June 19 that "preventing [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s] existence” is one of the Israeli air campaign’s objectives.

NEW | The IAEA confirmed that Israeli strikes have impacted underground infrastructure at the Natanz nuclear site. This came after the IAEA reported that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at Natanz.

A US weapons expert identified three explosive impacts above the underground enrichment facilities at Natanz on June 17.

It is unclear what damage, if any, these strikes inflicted on the complex. The IAEA stated that there has been no change to the status of the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center or Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.
Israel has continued striking Iranian military targets, which has likely degraded Iranian missile forces significantly. This degradation is reflected in the decreasing volume of Iranian missile fire at Israel.

NEW | Iran is continuing to cooperate with China to replenish its solid-fuel ballistic missile stockpile after Israel destroyed Iranian solid-fuel production sites in October 2024. (1/7) Unspecified sources told the Wall Street Journal on June 5 that Iran has ordered thousands of tons of ammonium perchlorate from China in recent months. Ammonium perchlorate comprises around 70 percent of the propellant of solid-fuel missiles. (2/7)

NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin likely orchestrated a meeting with Kursk Oblast officials on May 20 to set conditions to justify the renewal of Russian plans to seize Sumy City and illegally annex Sumy Oblast. (1/9) Russian forces are highly unlikely to be able to seize Sumy City in the near- to medium-term given Russia's demonstrated inability to rapidly seize even much smaller settlements in Ukraine in the past three years. (2/9)

Iran threatened to disrupt international commercial shipping if the U.S. conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear or energy facilities.

Recent instances of GPS interference in the Strait of Hormuz and possible Iranian harassment of a commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf suggest that Iran may be trying to signal to the U.S. that it can threaten freedom of navigation through the Persian Gulf to deter a potential US strike on Iran. Iran may have jammed vessel navigation systems in the Strait of Hormuz on May 18 in order to set conditions to seize vessels that inadvertently enter Iranian territorial waters as a result of navigation issues.

Iran previously conducted GPS jamming in 2019 to try to lure vessels into Iranian waters in response to US President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure strategy.

NEW | Iran is preparing for a potential escalation with the United States by positioning military assets on key islands in the Persian Gulf and signaling its intent to target US bases, commercial shipping, and regional allies. Iranian officials continued to categorically reject US demands for zero uranium enrichment, which may stall US-Iran nuclear negotiations.

NEW | The Kremlin is strengthening its strategic relationship with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

The AES helps the Kremlin supplant Western influence, pose as a great power, and create opportunities to threaten NATO's southern flank.🧵 The three foreign ministers from the AES states traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov on April 3 and 4 as part of the first sessions of “AES-Russia consultations.” 2/7

Reports of Houthi fighters’ formation of the Nasrallah Battalion in Iraq and Houthi fighters’ integration into PMF units, if accurate, may be consistent with growing Houthi cooperation with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in recent months.🧵 Yemeni Media Minister in Aden, Muammar al Eryani, claimed on March 26 that 700-1,200 Houthi fighters who fled from Syria after the fall of the Assad regime have formed the “Nasrallah battalion” in Iraq.

NEW | Al Qaeda’s Somali affiliate al Shabaab is attempting to overwhelm Somali forces around Mogadishu and in central Somalia.🧵⬇️🇸🇴


Al Shabaab has escalated attacks around Mogadishu, including an attempt to assassinate the Somali president, and increasingly infiltrated the capital outskirts since the beginning of Ramadan at the end of February. 2/9

NEW I President Donald Trump’s March 5 letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei set a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, according to an Axios report. Iran is very unlikely to agree to a new deal on a two-month timetable given its current policies on negotiations. 1/6


Trump’s May 2025 nuclear deal deadline would expire one month before the E3’s (Germany, France, and Italy) reported June 2025 deadline to conclude a nuclear deal before the reimposition of snapback sanctions. 2/6

The risk of sectarian violence from Syria spilling into Iraq is increasing.A newly formed Shia group called the Ya Ali Popular Formations announced on March 11 that it has begun to pursue Jabhat al Nusra members and supporters. They are likely referring to Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), given that Jabhat al Nusra was the predecessor group to HTS.🧵
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani reportedly withdrew the PMF Service and Retirement Law from the Iraqi parliamentary agenda on March 11.

The PMF is an Iraqi state security service that includes many Iranian-backed militias.

NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire on March 6. (1/4)


Putin stated during a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation's Moscow branch on March 6 that Russia does not intend to "give in to anyone" or make any compromises in future peace negotiations. Putin stated that Russia must choose a peace option that best suits Russia and will ensure peace in the long-term. (2/4)

NEW I Russia offered to mediate talks between the United States and Iran, according to unspecified sources speaking to Bloomberg. Russian mediation would reportedly cover Iranian nuclear activities and support for the Axis of Resistance. It is far from clear that Russia would help secure US interests through this mediation, however, especially regarding Iranian support for the Axis of Resistance. 1/4 Russia has cooperated extensively with the Axis of Resistance over the past decade. This cooperation has included working with Iran and Iranian-backed militias to attack US forces in the Middle East. Russian and Iranian-backed forces conducted a combined attack on US forces in Syria in 2018, for example. 2/4

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on February 22 that US and Russian officials are planning to meet within the next two weeks in an unspecified third country about bilateral relations.🧵 Ryabkov claimed that the United States and Russia are undertaking two "parallel" but "politically interconnected" negotiation tracks that will discuss the war in Ukraine and US-Russian bilateral relations.

NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) government agreed to several deals, including a Russian naval base, during separate diplomatic meetings with Iran and Russia in mid-February. 1/7

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1892636587197923696

A Russian naval base in Sudan would support Russia’s strategic objective of threatening NATO’s southern flank from Africa and the Mediterranean Sea while decreasing Russian reliance on bases in Syria after the collapse of the Bashar al Assad regime in December 2024. 2/7