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Nov 23 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | #Israel and #Hamas have agreed to a four-day humanitarian pause in fighting. Hamas is the only militant group explicitly mentioned in the humanitarian pause agreement. Read today's update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: (1/7) criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
The entire Axis of Resistance has been involved in the escalation against the #UnitedStates and #Israel since October 7 and it is unclear how its non-Hamas members will react to the pause. (2/7)
Nov 5 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
NEW | An Iran-backed #Iraqi militia threatened to escalate against US forces in Iraq and to target “US regional interests” ahead of #Blinken’s visit to Iraq. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @thestudyofwar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
@TheStudyofWar This indicates that Iran and its proxies and partners may target #US interests outside of Iraq and Syria.
Nov 4 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
NEW | Captured #Hamas plans may indicate that Hamas units in parts of the northern outskirts of #GazaCity are screening for a main defensive effort in central Gaza City. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @thestudyofwar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
#Israeli forces advanced to southern Tal al Hawa neighborhood, #Gaza City, on or around November 3. Israeli ground forces advanced along the northwestern #Gazan coast on November 4.
Nov 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | Lebanese #Hezbollah (LH) and #Iran are creating the expectation that LH will escalate against #Israel on or around November 3, possibly by increasing the rate of attack or by using more advanced systems. Read the latest update here: (1/7) criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
This comes as the #Houthi movement
threatened that it will "continue its strikes with rockets and drones until the #Israeli aggression stops" during a statement claiming responsibility for three attacks against Israel since October 18, including an attack on October 31. (2/7)
Oct 18 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
NEW | Al Qaeda’s affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa may exploit the Israel-Hamas war to attack their regional or Western adversaries under the pretext of supporting Hamas. Read the latest on the Salafi-jihadi movement from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: 1/5criticalthreats.org/analysis/salaf…
These attacks would simultaneously advance the affiliates’ transnational propaganda narratives while furthering their preexisting local campaigns. 2/5
Oct 8 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Lebanese #Hezbollah has launched rockets into Israel--one day after #Hamas conducted a major ground and air attack into #Israel. We reported Hamas may expect its conflict with Israel to expand to include other members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance. reuters.com/world/middle-e…
The fact that Hamas launched its attack on the anniversary of the 1973 #YomKippurWar lends credence to this possibility. One of the key features of that war was that Egypt’s surprise attack heralded a multi-front war. criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
Aug 3 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | The Nigerien junta is unlikely to cave to international pressure to undo its coup, which will force the junta to seek alternative auxiliary forces like the Wagner Group and may prompt a regional ECOWAS military intervention. The latest on Niger: 1/8 https://t.co/nwjH4sI58lcriticalthreats.org/analysis/salaf…
The Nigerien military will need to compensate for the loss of Western troops, supplies, and funding. The junta’s most likely options would be strengthening civilian militias, as Burkina Faso did, or hiring the Kremlin-funded Wagner Group, like Mali did. 2/8
Leaked US intelligence accessed by @washingtonpost indicates that #Wagner financier Yevgeniy #Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of #Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut. Today's update from @TheStudyofWar & CTP: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… 1/5 #Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and established a bridgehead on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims. 2/5
NEW | Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar here:
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to distract from and assuage information space paranoia over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front.
NEW | Attacks on #Iranian clerics increased during the past month, which may reflect broader public antipathy to the regime's sociocultural and economic policies. Today's update from CTP & @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 1/5
Iranian leadership is signaling greater cohesion among #Palestinian resistance factions, likely to support their integration into the Axis of Resistance. 2/5
May 5 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Turkey conducted a raid on ISIS in Jinderes, northwestern Syria, on April 28 that likely resulted in the death of an ISIS leader, but not the group’s “caliph.” Read this week's Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update here: criticalthreats.org/analysis/salaf… (1/4)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip #Erdogan claimed Turkey killed IS “#caliph” Abu al Hussein al Husseini al Qurayshi during the raid. #US officials said they could not confirm the raid's target was the #IS "caliph." (2/4)
May 5 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar here:
#Raisi is the first #Iranian president to visit #Syria in over a decade. What’s changed and what are the implications for #Iran’s domestic and regional goals? Read the latest from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: (1/8)
NEW | @brian_cartr: The Turkish raid on an alleged ISIS safe house in NW Syria on Apr 28 likely killed an ISIS leader, but not the caliph. Targeting ISIS leadership is helpful, but it fails to address the group’s ability to embed itself within local populations. Read the update… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…@brian_cartr The #alQaeda and #IslamicState networks in Africa will likely seek to use the #Sudan conflict to improve their position on the continent. Numerous inmates escaped from a prison in #Khartoum city beginning on April 22 amid clashes between Sudan’s two warring factions.
May 4 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
NEW | Russia accused Ukraine of conducting a drone strike against the Kremlin. Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian audience and set conditions for wider societal mobilization. Today's update from @TheStudyofWar and CTP:… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…@TheStudyofWar Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Kreminna on May 3.
May 4 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi signed 15 cooperation agreements with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Damascus, Syria on May 3, which could improve the Iranian economy and increase regime stability. Read today's update from @TheStudyofWar and CTP:… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…@TheStudyofWar Iranian reconstruction and economic partnership in Syria may include contracts for Iran’s Axis of Resistance in Syria, which would provide the groups with an alternative source of revenue to fund their military operations.
May 3 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
NEW | #Iranian officials and members of the clerical establishment have expressed increased concern over the safety of religious figures in recent days. Read today's update from CTP & @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… (1/4)
Iranian-backed #Syrian militias may be setting rhetorical conditions to attack US forces in response to #Israeli airstrikes in #Aleppo Province on May 1. (2/4)