Critical Threats Profile picture
An @AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: | Media requests:
Ruben Chagaray Profile picture Joao dos Reis Alberto Profile picture Leisure4Me Profile picture Kristoff 🥂 Profile picture 7 subscribed
Nov 23 7 tweets 2 min read
NEW | #Israel and #Hamas have agreed to a four-day humanitarian pause in fighting. Hamas is the only militant group explicitly mentioned in the humanitarian pause agreement. Read today's update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: (1/7)…
Image The entire Axis of Resistance has been involved in the escalation against the #UnitedStates and #Israel since October 7 and it is unclear how its non-Hamas members will react to the pause. (2/7) Image
Nov 5 11 tweets 3 min read
NEW | An Iran-backed #Iraqi militia threatened to escalate against US forces in Iraq and to target “US regional interests” ahead of #Blinken’s visit to Iraq. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @thestudyofwar:…

@TheStudyofWar This indicates that Iran and its proxies and partners may target #US interests outside of Iraq and Syria. Image
Nov 4 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW | Captured #Hamas plans may indicate that Hamas units in parts of the northern outskirts of #GazaCity are screening for a main defensive effort in central Gaza City. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @thestudyofwar:…

#Israeli forces advanced to southern Tal al Hawa neighborhood, #Gaza City, on or around November 3. Israeli ground forces advanced along the northwestern #Gazan coast on November 4. Image
Nov 1 7 tweets 2 min read
NEW | Lebanese #Hezbollah (LH) and #Iran are creating the expectation that LH will escalate against #Israel on or around November 3, possibly by increasing the rate of attack or by using more advanced systems. Read the latest update here: (1/7)…
Image This comes as the #Houthi movement
threatened that it will "continue its strikes with rockets and drones until the #Israeli aggression stops" during a statement claiming responsibility for three attacks against Israel since October 18, including an attack on October 31. (2/7)
Oct 18 5 tweets 1 min read
NEW | Al Qaeda’s affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa may exploit the Israel-Hamas war to attack their regional or Western adversaries under the pretext of supporting Hamas. Read the latest on the Salafi-jihadi movement from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: 1/…

Image These attacks would simultaneously advance the affiliates’ transnational propaganda narratives while furthering their preexisting local campaigns. 2/5
Oct 8 5 tweets 2 min read
Lebanese #Hezbollah has launched rockets into Israel--one day after #Hamas conducted a major ground and air attack into #Israel. We reported Hamas may expect its conflict with Israel to expand to include other members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance.… The fact that Hamas launched its attack on the anniversary of the 1973 #YomKippurWar lends credence to this possibility. One of the key features of that war was that Egypt’s surprise attack heralded a multi-front war.…
Aug 3 8 tweets 2 min read
NEW | The Nigerien junta is unlikely to cave to international pressure to undo its coup, which will force the junta to seek alternative auxiliary forces like the Wagner Group and may prompt a regional ECOWAS military intervention. The latest on Niger: 1/8…
Image The Nigerien military will need to compensate for the loss of Western troops, supplies, and funding. The junta’s most likely options would be strengthening civilian militias, as Burkina Faso did, or hiring the Kremlin-funded Wagner Group, like Mali did. 2/8
May 16 9 tweets 4 min read
#Iranian leaders are stoking conflict between Israel and #Palestinian militias, likely to enable the IRGC to transfer military equipment into #Syria with a lower risk of Israeli interdiction. Today's Update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar:… 1/9 Image #Iranian weapon shipments into #Syria could trigger a new escalation cycle with #Israel that risks entangling US and Coalition forces. 2/9
May 15 5 tweets 4 min read
Leaked US intelligence accessed by @washingtonpost indicates that #Wagner financier Yevgeniy #Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of #Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut. Today's update from @TheStudyofWar & CTP:… 1/5 Image #Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and established a bridgehead on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims. 2/5 Image
May 15 4 tweets 3 min read
NEW | #Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against #Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14. Read the update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar:… Image Russian forces conducted ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Svatove line. Image
May 14 4 tweets 5 min read
NEW | #Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the #Bakhmut area amid unconfirmed claims of further marginal Ukrainian gains southwest of the city as of May 13. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar here:… Image #Russian forces continued limited ground attacks northeast of #Kupyansk and northwest of #Svatove on May 13. Image
May 13 4 tweets 2 min read
NEW | Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar here:… Image The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to distract from and assuage information space paranoia over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front. Image
May 6 6 tweets 5 min read
The #Russian MoD appears to have deprioritized the #Bakhmut offensive to defend against an anticipated #Ukrainian counteroffensive, putting the #Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Prigozhin in a difficult position. The latest from @TheStudyofWar & CTP:… Image Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 5. 2/6 Image
May 5 5 tweets 3 min read
NEW | Attacks on #Iranian clerics increased during the past month, which may reflect broader public antipathy to the regime's sociocultural and economic policies. Today's update from CTP & @TheStudyofWar:… 1/5 Iranian leadership is signaling greater cohesion among #Palestinian resistance factions, likely to support their integration into the Axis of Resistance. 2/5
May 5 4 tweets 3 min read
Turkey conducted a raid on ISIS in Jinderes, northwestern Syria, on April 28 that likely resulted in the death of an ISIS leader, but not the group’s “caliph.” Read this week's Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update here:… (1/4) Turkish President Recep Tayyip #Erdogan claimed Turkey killed IS “#caliph” Abu al Hussein al Husseini al Qurayshi during the raid. #US officials said they could not confirm the raid's target was the #IS "caliph." (2/4)
May 5 4 tweets 2 min read
NEW | Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar here:… Image Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line. ImageImage
May 5 8 tweets 5 min read
#Raisi is the first #Iranian president to visit #Syria in over a decade. What’s changed and what are the implications for #Iran’s domestic and regional goals? Read the latest from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: (1/8)… #Raisi’s visit signals that #Iran is aiming to leverage political and economic developments in #Syria to improve its domestic economy and advance its regional objectives. (2/8)
May 4 4 tweets 5 min read
NEW | @brian_cartr: The Turkish raid on an alleged ISIS safe house in NW Syria on Apr 28 likely killed an ISIS leader, but not the caliph. Targeting ISIS leadership is helpful, but it fails to address the group’s ability to embed itself within local populations. Read the update…… ImageImageImage @brian_cartr The #alQaeda and #IslamicState networks in Africa will likely seek to use the #Sudan conflict to improve their position on the continent. Numerous inmates escaped from a prison in #Khartoum city beginning on April 22 amid clashes between Sudan’s two warring factions. Image
May 4 4 tweets 3 min read
NEW | Russia accused Ukraine of conducting a drone strike against the Kremlin. Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian audience and set conditions for wider societal mobilization. Today's update from @TheStudyofWar and CTP:…… Image @TheStudyofWar Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Kreminna on May 3. Image
May 4 4 tweets 2 min read
NEW | Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi signed 15 cooperation agreements with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Damascus, Syria on May 3, which could improve the Iranian economy and increase regime stability. Read today's update from @TheStudyofWar and CTP:…… Image @TheStudyofWar Iranian reconstruction and economic partnership in Syria may include contracts for Iran’s Axis of Resistance in Syria, which would provide the groups with an alternative source of revenue to fund their military operations.
May 3 4 tweets 3 min read
NEW | #Iranian officials and members of the clerical establishment have expressed increased concern over the safety of religious figures in recent days. Read today's update from CTP & @TheStudyofWar:… (1/4) Image Iranian-backed #Syrian militias may be setting rhetorical conditions to attack US forces in response to #Israeli airstrikes in #Aleppo Province on May 1. (2/4) Image