NEW | Talks between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and leading national opposition coalition over a constitutional and electoral dispute collapsed as Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s controversial term extension took effect on May 15.

The FGS and opposition are now at an institutional impasse, which will likely lead to clashes between their affiliated forces.🧵⬇️ The talks were meant to produce a resolution between the FGS and Somali Future Council (SFC) opposition coalition over Mohamud’s term extension and the holding of elections.

The talks collapsed over the FGS’s insistence upon direct elections in upcoming state and federal elections, which the SFC has described as a non-starter due to the opposition’s preference for the current clan-based quota and indirect voting system. 2/7

NEW | Iran seeks to achieve positive strategic objectives beyond the negative objective of surviving the war. Iran’s principal positive strategic objective at this time is to secure recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, which would fundamentally remake regional and global maritime norms in a manner extremely detrimental to US interests. (1/7) Long-term control of the Strait would require Iran to secure US recognition of its claims to the Strait of Hormuz through a negotiated agreement so that Iran could order ships to comply with its rules legitimately and then intercept those ships that fail to comply. (2/7)

NEW | Somali pirates have conducted the most hijackings in Somali waters in a 10-day period since the end of the peak of the Somali piracy crisis in 2012.

Sustained piracy off the Somali coast would degrade security in another vital global shipping lane amid the fallout from the Iran war and create opportunities for al Shabaab to benefit financially and further its ties with the Houthis. 🧵⬇️ Somali pirates have attacked one vessel and hijacked three others since April 21, including two international commercial ships.

A US-led multinational maritime force and the EU’s maritime force in the Indian Ocean have upgraded the threat level for the Somali coast, recommending that vessels exercise increased vigilance. 2/5

NEW | The United States is increasingly involved in direct competition with Russia in Africa as the United States seeks to cultivate influence with Russian-aligned, authoritarian regimes in Africa as part of its transactional approach to the continent.

These African states have shown openness to US engagement as part of efforts to diversify their partnerships but are ultimately seeking to balance ties among several countries. ⬇️🧵


US President Donald Trump’s approach is a departure from that of former US President Joe Biden’s administration, which oscillated between pragmatic engagement and more confrontational approaches with non-US-aligned authoritarian or coup governments.

Russia and the United States are also competing with increasingly prominent “middle power” actors, such as Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as these African countries look to diversify their partnerships and balance several external partners. 2/6

NEW: The Iranian political officials who will reportedly negotiate with the United States in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 21 neither have the authority to independently determine Iran’s negotiating positions nor are driving decision-making in Tehran. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will attend the talks. Iran’s negotiating delegation is expected to include Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

NEW: The IRGC appears to be controlling Iranian decision-making instead of Iranian political officials who are engaging with the United States in negotiations, particularly Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi. (1/7) Araghchi previously announced on April 17 that the strait was “completely open” to commercial traffic. The IRGC, however, harshly criticized Araghchi’s statement and outlined specific conditions for vessels to transit the strait that amount to Iran retaining control over maritime traffic through the strait. (2/7)

NEW | Turkey has recently advanced economic and security ties with Niger and Somalia, viewing both countries as its African anchor states through which it can further its strategic interests in Africa.

These partnerships aim to address several domestic concerns, such as patronage and energy security, and bolster Turkey’s international standing vis-à-vis global competitors.🧵⬇️ Turkey and Somalia have continued advancing maritime resource agreements in March 2026 that the two partners have signed in recent years.

The two countries signed a deal enabling a joint Somali-Turkish company that a Turkish military-linked entity manages to regulate fishing in Somali waters, after having established the joint company in December 2025.

Turkey is also bolstering its long-term military presence in Somalia through the deployment of advanced weaponry, such as F-16s, and exploration of new aerospace and naval bases. 2/5

NEW | US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that no vessels have breached the US blockade on Iranian ports since CENTCOM implemented its blockade on April 13. The US blockade on Iranian ports does not have a defined geographic boundary and the United States can interdict vessels almost anywhere in international waters until they arrive at their final port. It is unclear whether any of the vessels that left Iranian ports on April 14 were authorized to do so under CENTCOM’s “limited grade period.” (1/6) The United States’ decision not to renew a 30-day sanctions waiver for Iranian oil exports, which is set to expire on April 19, will further constrain Iran’s ability to export oil in addition to the US blockade on Iranian ports. Two US officials told Reuters on April 14 that the US Treasury Department will enforce sanctions on Iranian oil after April 19. (2/6)

NEW | Ukraine’s expanding long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure is exploiting overstretched Russian air defenses and significantly damaging Russian oil export capabilities.

Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems and highlight the impact of Ukrainian strikes. (1/4) 2/ The Russian military is experiencing manpower challenges and is unable to recruit enough contract soldiers to replace its frontline losses.

The Russian MoD is attempting to generate additional manpower through other sources, regardless of the financial and societal costs.

Russia is facing increasing recruitment challenges as the pool of Russians willing to sign contracts declines, despite Kremlin efforts to increase signing bonuses and tap additional sources of manpower.

NEW | The combined US-Israeli force has struck over 2,000 targets in Iran and achieved air superiority over Tehran.

The combined force has continued to target Iranian internal security institutions responsible for maintaining stability and suppressing protests, including security forces along Iran’s northwestern borders with Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan.

The IDF announced that it has started “systematically dismantling” Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. 2/ The combined force conducted several strikes targeting Iranian drone launch facilities in southeastern Iran that Iran likely used to launch drones at its Arab Gulf neighbors.

The combined force seeks to disrupt the Iranian navies’ ability to attack international shipping and US Navy vessels.

NEW | Russian forces are reportedly preparing to conduct long-range strikes against substations powering Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. (1/5) This warning comes as Russia continues its long-range strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, resulting in widespread blackouts. (2/5)

NEW | Somalia canceled all bilateral agreements with the UAE on January 12, which legally annuls UAE access to key Red Sea ports and military bases, potentially affecting UAE anti-Houthi operations and weapons shipments to the RSF in Sudan.

Somalia’s move could also have negative implications on counterterrorism efforts, given the UAE’s support for Somali federal and state forces combating al Shabaab and IS Somalia. 🧵1/6
Somalia cited the UAE’s alleged “hostile and destabilizing actions undermining national sovereignty” when justifying its decision.

The UAE reportedly facilitated Israel’s recognition of the breakaway Somaliland region. The UAE then evacuated the STC leader through Somalia following the STC’s failed takeover in Yemen, which Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces foiled. 2/6

NEW | Al Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate JNIM has escalated the objectives of its blockade to expand and strengthen its governance efforts across parts of southern Mali, as it begins to enforce shari'a law.🧵
A JNIM spokesperson announced that it would continue its ongoing fuel blockade until the Malian government fell or agreed to apply shari'a law nationwide.

The spokesperson simultaneously said that JNIM would unilaterally implement certain shari'a provisions across the country.

The group has since started enforcing the veiling of women and gender segregation at checkpoints.

Civilians leaving Bamako have reportedly abided by these provisions, highlighting JNIM's ability to disrupt civilian life and psychologically coerce civilians across the country. 2/4

NEW | Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM has established control over Farabougou, a key crossroads and symbolically important town in central Mali.

The capture is another blow to the Malian junta following an alleged coup attempt in early August. 🧵
JNIM overran the Malian army base in Farabougou on August 19.

JNIM fighters remained in the adjacent town in the following days and took videos of Friday prayers on August 22.

The group has since signed an agreement with local leaders to allow civilians who had fled the town to return. Returnees must pay taxes and follow JNIM-interpreted shari’a law, including provisions on music, alcohol consumption, and clothing.

NEW | US-supported Somali forces are encountering strong resistance as they try to clear IS Somalia Province’s (ISS) cave complexes in northern Somalia’s Puntland region.

The ongoing operations are likely targeting IS global leadership and some of ISS’s final strongholds.🧵
Puntland forces with US air support have been conducting operations against ISS in the Ballade valley for over a week.

US and Puntland officials said on August 26 that they had concluded a two-week joint operation against “ISIS leadership safe havens.” x.com/USAfricaComman…

Puntland forces have continued their operations, however, and ISS ambushes, sniper fire, and suicide commando attacks since August 22 have allegedly killed more than 50 Puntland soldiers, although Puntland officials have disputed these figures.

Qatari-brokered peace talks between the DRC and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels will likely drag out as both sides have been unwilling to make concessions on the central issue of M23’s territorial control, making a sustainable long-term agreement unlikely.

The lack of clarity around this issue will likely be a major obstacle in the upcoming round of talks tentatively scheduled for August 8.🧵 The DRC and M23 signed a Qatari-brokered statement of principles in late July that committed both sides to a ceasefire but deferred negotiations over the “root causes” of the conflict to be resolved in the second stage of talks aimed at reaching a final peace deal by August 18. 2/8

NEW | The United States sanctioned Senior Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani’s son, Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, and his multinational shipping network on July 30 for generating tens of billions of dollars in revenue for the Shamkhani family and the Iranian regime. (1/6) The US Treasury Department sanctioned 12 individuals, 52 vessels, and 53 entities, including 15 shipping firms, tied to Hossein Shamkhani’s network to disrupt Iranian and Russian exports of petroleum products and other goods. (2/6)

NEW | Al Shabaab captured Mahas, a district capital in central Somalia that the Somali government and its allies had controlled since 2014.

The advance sets conditions for the group to escalate attacks on major towns across central Somalia, including along the Ethiopian border.

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1944744162504359957

Mahas is the group's latest gain in central Somalia this year, where it has recaptured swaths of territory that it lost in 2022.

The group reconnected its territory in central Somalia and southern Somalia in March and recaptured the district capitals Adan Yabal and Moqokori in April and early July, respectively.

CTP warned after the fall of Moqokori that al Shabaab would target Mahas in the "coming days and weeks."

NEW | An unspecified high-ranking Iranian official cited by Amwaj Media on July 4 reported that Iran plans to resume indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States, but the conditions that Iran will reportedly present would require unspecified guarantees that the US would not strike Iran. 🧵 Such a guarantee would be inconsistent with the Trump administration’s stated position on future strikes on Iran’s facilities. The unspecified Iranian official told Amwaj that Iran is seeking a guarantee in negotiations that the United States will not conduct any additional strikes on Iran.”

NEW | US and Israeli airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) between June 12 and 24 reportedly destroyed components of Iran’s nuclear program that would be necessary for weaponization. The strikes destroyed the Uranium Metal Conversion Plant at the ENTC, which Iran could have used to transform uranium gas into dense metal in a process called metallization. This process is one of the last steps required to form the explosive core of an atomic bomb. Iran may have begun repair operations at the Natanz Enrichment Complex. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 27 shows that Iran has filled in a crater that was formed by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. The imagery shows what appears to be two tents and a truck present at the impact site.

US and Israeli airstrikes severely set back Iran’s enrichment capabilities, but Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile poses a long-term threat if Iran chooses to rebuild its nuclear program.

The degradation of Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities will temporarily prevent Iran from enriching to 90 percent weapons-grade uranium, though it could do so if it can install surviving centrifuges at a new facility or retains surviving centrifuges at another facility.

It is unclear if Iran retains the know-how or facilities needed to build a weapon after Israel’s decapitation campaign targeting nuclear scientists and the US-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities.

A top Israeli official said Israel is preparing to resume operations against Iran if necessary. Israel seeks to retain its air superiority over Iranian airspace, prevent reconstruction of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and inhibit Iranian support to members of the Axis of Resistance.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened to conduct retaliatory attacks against a potential Israeli strike.