Iranian officials suggested that Iran will delay its retaliation against Israel for the death of former Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh until after ceasefire negotiations conclude. 1/5 The United States and international mediators have maintained pressure on Iran to encourage Tehran to delay or indefinitely postpone its attack, arguing that such a delay could help deescalate regional tension. 2/5

NEW | Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei indicated that he still believes Iran must respond to Israeli operations targeting senior Axis of Resistance leaders in recent weeks, despite back-channel threats from the United States emphasizing that Israel would respond forcefully to an attack that kills Israeli civilians or causes significant damage. 1/11 Official Hamas statements suggest that a ceasefire during the August 15 Doha talks is unlikely. Unspecified Hamas officials have suggested that Hamas could attend the talks, however. 2/11

NEW | Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. 1/12

The Kremlin's response to Ukrainian offensive activities in Kursk Oblast has so far been contradictory, as Russian officials are attempting to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent. 2/12

NEW | Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani defended Iran’s impending retaliatory strike against Israel while signaling that Iran seeks to avoid a regional war during an Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 7. 1/10 The Axis of Resistance and Iran are coalescing around Yahya Sinwar as Hamas’ new leader. Sinwar’s leadership is very unlikely to change Hamas’ maximalist position on ceasefire and hostage negotiations in the Gaza Strip. 2/10

In the Nigerien junta's first year of rule, it has sought to address economic challenges that could threaten regime stability by working with China, Iran, Russia, and Turkey to secure quick revenue. 1/8

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1815775184135032884

The junta is still experiencing significant economic shortfalls following regional sanctions that ended in February.

These issues led to massive budget cuts, debt defaults, stunted economic growth, and growing food prices and poverty. 2/8

NEW | Hamas, Fatah and other unspecified Palestinian political factions agreed on a vision for post-war governance of the Gaza Strip on July 23 during “intra-Palestinian reconciliation” talks in Beijing. The United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are separately advancing an alternative post-war governance vision for the Gaza Strip that conflicts with the Beijing meeting’s vision.

NEW | Niger revoked the operating permit for a uranium mine from French state-owned mining company Orano. Russia aims to assume operations based on an early June Bloomberg report that Russian state-owned nuclear company Rosatom is in talks to acquire Orano's Nigerien assets. 1/5 The Nigerien junta is likely seeking military support or near-term access to revenue to bolster its counterinsurgency efforts and economy, strengthening its regime security. The junta has brokered other deals to exchange natural resources for loans and weapons in 2024. 2/5

NEW | The reported presence of high-level Islamic State leaders in Somalia & across Africa reflects African affiliates' increasingly critical role in the IS global network, including funding external attacks & recruiting foreign fighters. 1/8 A US drone strike targeted IS Somalia Province (ISS) Emir Abdulqadir Mumin in May. US officials claimed that Mumin became IS’s “global leader” in 2023. Independent analysts have clarified that Mumin likely leads the General Directorate of Provinces & is not the IS caliph. 2/8

One area Russian officials focused on during their Africa tours is strengthening Russia’s military footprint. The Kremlin uses military influence in Africa to leverage limited resources to create opportunities to threaten Europe & advance Russia's image as a great power. 1/7

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1798742816279167017

Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov pledged to boost Libyan National Army capabilities, signed a multi-sectoral agreement with Niger, and discussed military cooperation w/ Mali. Foreign Minister Lavrov also announced that Russia would send more military support to Burkina Faso. 2/7

NEW | Russian officials are visiting Africa, seeking to advance the Kremlin’s strategic goals of supplanting Western influence & better positioning Russia for prolonged confrontation with the West by tightening military, economic, and political ties with African partners. 1/8


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Guinea, Congo, Burkina Faso, and Chad, while Deputy Defense Minister Yunus Bek Yevkurov visited Libya, Mali, and Niger on separate trips between May 31 and June 5. 2/8

Iranian President #Raisi and several senior officials were in a helicopter crash earlier today. What’s happening in #Iran and what does it mean for the future of the regime? 🧵 1/12 Iranian media reported earlier today that Raisi and several members of his administration including Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian were in a serious helicopter crash in Iran. 2/12

Russian forces are now deployed next to withdrawing US troops in Niamey. This supports CTP's assessment that Russian troops will also backfill the US base in northern Niger, which will create several long-term opportunities for the Kremlin to strategically threaten Europe. 1/9🧵

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1783516115286597912

The 100-person Russian Africa Corps deployment will immediately enable Russia to strengthen its influence in Niger & consolidate its logistical network in Africa, but will likely remain small in the coming months due to recruitment issues. 2/9

CNN reported yesterday that Chad threatened to kick out the handful of US trainers in the country. This mostly symbolic move strongly supports CTP's assessment that Chad may increase cooperation with Russia. This thread discusses Chad's reasons for this potential shift. 1/10🧵

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1781016465782546596

Malian officials recently claimed that Chad expressed interest in joining the Russia-backed Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Chadian junta leader Mahamat Deby has also vowed to improve security & signaled openness to cooperating with Russia as part of his presidential campaign. 2/10

NEW | Al Qaeda–affiliated militants (JNIM) recently conducted the first suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack in southern Mali since 2022, likely to support the group’s efforts to isolate a district capital nearly 175 miles north of the Malian capital. 1/4 JNIM has rapidly strengthened in the region surrounding Bamako since the beginning of 2022, increasing the rate, geographic spread, and sophistication of its activity throughout the Koulikoro region. 2/4

NEW | The Wagner Group established control over its first gold mine in Mali and will likely attempt to expand its influence over northern Mali’s artisanal mines to bolster the Kremlin’s sanctions evasion efforts. 1/6 Wagner and Malian forces captured the Intahaka mine in the Gao region on February 9. Intahaka is the largest artisanal mine in northern Mali, and various armed groups—including the regional al Qaeda (AQ) and IS affiliates—have controlled and taxed the mine in recent years. 2/6

Hamas’ military wing, the al Qassem Brigades, is reporting some attacks in the central and southern Gaza Strip only after its fighters return to rear areas.

The delays in reporting to higher headquarters may indicate a loss of command-and-control over some al Qassem Brigades units engaged with Israeli forces.

NEW | Israel has degraded Hamas’ North Gaza Brigade, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip.

Israeli special operations forces operated inside a Hamas tunnel system in Gaza city on December 19.

NEW | Hamas has used increasingly sophisticated tactics against Israeli forces in the Gaza
Strip since the humanitarian pause ended on December 1.

Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…


CTP-ISW is considering two possible hypotheses to explain this shift in tactics. Neither of these hypotheses are mutually exclusive:

NEW | #Israel and #Hamas have agreed to a four-day humanitarian pause in fighting. Hamas is the only militant group explicitly mentioned in the humanitarian pause agreement. Read today's update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: (1/7) criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
The entire Axis of Resistance has been involved in the escalation against the #UnitedStates and #Israel since October 7 and it is unclear how its non-Hamas members will react to the pause. (2/7)

NEW | An Iran-backed #Iraqi militia threatened to escalate against US forces in Iraq and to target “US regional interests” ahead of #Blinken’s visit to Iraq. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @thestudyofwar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…


@TheStudyofWar This indicates that Iran and its proxies and partners may target #US interests outside of Iraq and Syria.

NEW | Captured #Hamas plans may indicate that Hamas units in parts of the northern outskirts of #GazaCity are screening for a main defensive effort in central Gaza City. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @thestudyofwar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…


#Israeli forces advanced to southern Tal al Hawa neighborhood, #Gaza City, on or around November 3. Israeli ground forces advanced along the northwestern #Gazan coast on November 4.