Iran threatened to disrupt international commercial shipping if the U.S. conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear or energy facilities.

Recent instances of GPS interference in the Strait of Hormuz and possible Iranian harassment of a commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf suggest that Iran may be trying to signal to the U.S. that it can threaten freedom of navigation through the Persian Gulf to deter a potential US strike on Iran. Iran may have jammed vessel navigation systems in the Strait of Hormuz on May 18 in order to set conditions to seize vessels that inadvertently enter Iranian territorial waters as a result of navigation issues.

Iran previously conducted GPS jamming in 2019 to try to lure vessels into Iranian waters in response to US President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure strategy.

NEW | Iran is preparing for a potential escalation with the United States by positioning military assets on key islands in the Persian Gulf and signaling its intent to target US bases, commercial shipping, and regional allies. Iranian officials continued to categorically reject US demands for zero uranium enrichment, which may stall US-Iran nuclear negotiations.

NEW | The Kremlin is strengthening its strategic relationship with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

The AES helps the Kremlin supplant Western influence, pose as a great power, and create opportunities to threaten NATO's southern flank.🧵 The three foreign ministers from the AES states traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov on April 3 and 4 as part of the first sessions of “AES-Russia consultations.” 2/7

Reports of Houthi fighters’ formation of the Nasrallah Battalion in Iraq and Houthi fighters’ integration into PMF units, if accurate, may be consistent with growing Houthi cooperation with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in recent months.🧵 Yemeni Media Minister in Aden, Muammar al Eryani, claimed on March 26 that 700-1,200 Houthi fighters who fled from Syria after the fall of the Assad regime have formed the “Nasrallah battalion” in Iraq.

NEW | Al Qaeda’s Somali affiliate al Shabaab is attempting to overwhelm Somali forces around Mogadishu and in central Somalia.🧵⬇️🇸🇴


Al Shabaab has escalated attacks around Mogadishu, including an attempt to assassinate the Somali president, and increasingly infiltrated the capital outskirts since the beginning of Ramadan at the end of February. 2/9

NEW I President Donald Trump’s March 5 letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei set a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, according to an Axios report. Iran is very unlikely to agree to a new deal on a two-month timetable given its current policies on negotiations. 1/6


Trump’s May 2025 nuclear deal deadline would expire one month before the E3’s (Germany, France, and Italy) reported June 2025 deadline to conclude a nuclear deal before the reimposition of snapback sanctions. 2/6

The risk of sectarian violence from Syria spilling into Iraq is increasing.A newly formed Shia group called the Ya Ali Popular Formations announced on March 11 that it has begun to pursue Jabhat al Nusra members and supporters. They are likely referring to Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), given that Jabhat al Nusra was the predecessor group to HTS.🧵
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani reportedly withdrew the PMF Service and Retirement Law from the Iraqi parliamentary agenda on March 11.

The PMF is an Iraqi state security service that includes many Iranian-backed militias.

NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire on March 6. (1/4)


Putin stated during a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation's Moscow branch on March 6 that Russia does not intend to "give in to anyone" or make any compromises in future peace negotiations. Putin stated that Russia must choose a peace option that best suits Russia and will ensure peace in the long-term. (2/4)

NEW I Russia offered to mediate talks between the United States and Iran, according to unspecified sources speaking to Bloomberg. Russian mediation would reportedly cover Iranian nuclear activities and support for the Axis of Resistance. It is far from clear that Russia would help secure US interests through this mediation, however, especially regarding Iranian support for the Axis of Resistance. 1/4 Russia has cooperated extensively with the Axis of Resistance over the past decade. This cooperation has included working with Iran and Iranian-backed militias to attack US forces in the Middle East. Russian and Iranian-backed forces conducted a combined attack on US forces in Syria in 2018, for example. 2/4

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on February 22 that US and Russian officials are planning to meet within the next two weeks in an unspecified third country about bilateral relations.🧵 Ryabkov claimed that the United States and Russia are undertaking two "parallel" but "politically interconnected" negotiation tracks that will discuss the war in Ukraine and US-Russian bilateral relations.

NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) government agreed to several deals, including a Russian naval base, during separate diplomatic meetings with Iran and Russia in mid-February. 1/7

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1892636587197923696

A Russian naval base in Sudan would support Russia’s strategic objective of threatening NATO’s southern flank from Africa and the Mediterranean Sea while decreasing Russian reliance on bases in Syria after the collapse of the Bashar al Assad regime in December 2024. 2/7

NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 captured the South Kivu provincial capital, Bukavu, and has continued to advance on several axes in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). 1/9 🧵🇨🇩🇷🇼

M23 advanced south from Bukavu toward Uvira, the second-most-populated city in South Kivu near Lake Tanganyika & Burundi’s economic capital, Bujumbura.

M23 also advanced southwest toward Kamituga, a gold mining hub and a gateway town to the south-central regions of the DRC. 2/9

NEW | Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on February 18, but Russia continues to display no indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western intelligence and US officials in line with ISW's longstanding assessment. (1/13) Many recent Russian statements show that the Kremlin remains uninterested in engaging in good faith negotiations and retains his objective of destroying the Ukrainian state while the Kremlin has offered no public indication that it would materially compromise. (2/13)

NEW | Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-Damascus Negotiations: A Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) commander stated that the SDF and the governing body in northeast Syria agreed to merge their forces into the Syrian Defense Ministry on February 17. There still appear to be several outstanding issues in negotiations between the SDF and the Syrian interim government, but both parties appear to be engaging with one another constructively. (1/4) SDF Negotiating Position: SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi is under tremendous pressure from internal SDF rivals, external Kurdish rivals, longtime enemies, and his allies to integrate with the Damascus government. This pressure appears to be pushing the SDF to gradually moderate its demands. Abdi probably sees an opportunity to avoid a major conflict with Damascus and solidify his own position, though he presumably recognizes that integration with the Syrian army is fraught with risk given the outstanding issues regarding integration. (2/4)

NEW I The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede additional territory in eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and disband the Ukrainian military in the future while continuing to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any future peace negotiations. 1/9 Lavrov and Nebenzya also categorically rejected European involvement in future peace negotiations and accused European countries of being aggressive toward Russia. 2/9

NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels declared a unilateral “humanitarian” ceasefire in the eastern DRC ahead of peace talks scheduled for February 7 and 8.

M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6
A long-term peace agreement is unlikely as the DRC still refuses to negotiate with M23, M23 and Rwanda still hold a military advantage to push for their maximalist demands, and there is not unanimous confidence in the regional blocs (EAC & SADC) as impartial mediators. 2/6

NEW I Both Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the Houthi movement ceased military operations against Israel after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which underscores that the October 7 War was a regional conflict between Iran and its Axis of Resistance and Israel. 1/7 The Prime Minister’s office said that the ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages should start at 0900 ET on January 19 after the Israeli cabinet approved the ceasefire on January 17. 2/7

NEW | Canadian gold mining company Barrick Gold temporarily suspended mining operations in Mali, and Russia is poised to fill any potential void. 1/6 🇲🇱🇨🇦🇷🇺 Barrick’s decision is the result of a multiyear Russian-supported campaign to extract more money from Western mining companies and possibly pressure them out of Mali entirely. 2/6

NEW | The Gaza ceasefire agreement, which the Israeli cabinet will vote to approve tomorrow, demonstrates that Hamas offered Israel several serious concessions. (1/10) The ceasefire agreement does not guarantee an end to the war. The short, 42-day first phase bans Israeli reconnaissance overflight of the Strip, but this would not give Hamas serious military advantage at this time. (2/10)

NEW | Iran conducted an air defense exercise for the second time in recent days.

This activity reflects Iranian concerns about possible airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, as Tehran has continued to expand its nuclear program.

Read below to learn more: The Artesh—the conventional Iranian military—exercises tested the manned and unmanned aircrafts as well as the following air defense systems, according to Iranian state media:

NEW | The Islamic State has evolved and expanded globally since ISIS' territorial defeat in 2019, enabling it to orchestrate and inspire attacks on the West.

IS may further strengthen by exploiting security vacuums in Syria and Africa. 🧵

IS retains a global network of affiliates despite its loss of its statelet in Iraq and Syria.

Its decentralized system helps coordinate between the group’s personnel in local theaters, the global IS network, and central IS leadership.

Chart via @ToreRHamming