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Malian officials recently claimed that Chad expressed interest in joining the Russia-backed Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Chadian junta leader Mahamat Deby has also vowed to improve security & signaled openness to cooperating with Russia as part of his presidential campaign. 2/10
JNIM has rapidly strengthened in the region surrounding Bamako since the beginning of 2022, increasing the rate, geographic spread, and sophistication of its activity throughout the Koulikoro region. 2/4
Wagner and Malian forces captured the Intahaka mine in the Gao region on February 9. Intahaka is the largest artisanal mine in northern Mali, and various armed groups—including the regional al Qaeda (AQ) and IS affiliates—have controlled and taxed the mine in recent years. 2/6
The delays in reporting to higher headquarters may indicate a loss of command-and-control over some al Qassem Brigades units engaged with Israeli forces.
Israeli special operations forces operated inside a Hamas tunnel system in Gaza city on December 19.
CTP-ISW is considering two possible hypotheses to explain this shift in tactics. Neither of these hypotheses are mutually exclusive:
The entire Axis of Resistance has been involved in the escalation against the #UnitedStates and #Israel since October 7 and it is unclear how its non-Hamas members will react to the pause. (2/7) 
@TheStudyofWar This indicates that Iran and its proxies and partners may target #US interests outside of Iraq and Syria. 
#Israeli forces advanced to southern Tal al Hawa neighborhood, #Gaza City, on or around November 3. Israeli ground forces advanced along the northwestern #Gazan coast on November 4. 
This comes as the #Houthi movement
These attacks would simultaneously advance the affiliates’ transnational propaganda narratives while furthering their preexisting local campaigns. 2/5
The Nigerien military will need to compensate for the loss of Western troops, supplies, and funding. The junta’s most likely options would be strengthening civilian militias, as Burkina Faso did, or hiring the Kremlin-funded Wagner Group, like Mali did. 2/8
#Iranian weapon shipments into #Syria could trigger a new escalation cycle with #Israel that risks entangling US and Coalition forces. 2/9
#Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and established a bridgehead on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims. 2/5 
Russian forces conducted ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Svatove line. 
#Russian forces continued limited ground attacks northeast of #Kupyansk and northwest of #Svatove on May 13. 
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to distract from and assuage information space paranoia over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front. 
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 5. 2/6 
