NEW I President Donald Trump’s March 5 letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei set a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, according to an Axios report. Iran is very unlikely to agree to a new deal on a two-month timetable given its current policies on negotiations. 1/6


Trump’s May 2025 nuclear deal deadline would expire one month before the E3’s (Germany, France, and Italy) reported June 2025 deadline to conclude a nuclear deal before the reimposition of snapback sanctions. 2/6

The risk of sectarian violence from Syria spilling into Iraq is increasing.A newly formed Shia group called the Ya Ali Popular Formations announced on March 11 that it has begun to pursue Jabhat al Nusra members and supporters. They are likely referring to Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), given that Jabhat al Nusra was the predecessor group to HTS.🧵
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani reportedly withdrew the PMF Service and Retirement Law from the Iraqi parliamentary agenda on March 11.

The PMF is an Iraqi state security service that includes many Iranian-backed militias.

NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire on March 6. (1/4)


Putin stated during a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation's Moscow branch on March 6 that Russia does not intend to "give in to anyone" or make any compromises in future peace negotiations. Putin stated that Russia must choose a peace option that best suits Russia and will ensure peace in the long-term. (2/4)

NEW I Russia offered to mediate talks between the United States and Iran, according to unspecified sources speaking to Bloomberg. Russian mediation would reportedly cover Iranian nuclear activities and support for the Axis of Resistance. It is far from clear that Russia would help secure US interests through this mediation, however, especially regarding Iranian support for the Axis of Resistance. 1/4 Russia has cooperated extensively with the Axis of Resistance over the past decade. This cooperation has included working with Iran and Iranian-backed militias to attack US forces in the Middle East. Russian and Iranian-backed forces conducted a combined attack on US forces in Syria in 2018, for example. 2/4

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on February 22 that US and Russian officials are planning to meet within the next two weeks in an unspecified third country about bilateral relations.🧵 Ryabkov claimed that the United States and Russia are undertaking two "parallel" but "politically interconnected" negotiation tracks that will discuss the war in Ukraine and US-Russian bilateral relations.

NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) government agreed to several deals, including a Russian naval base, during separate diplomatic meetings with Iran and Russia in mid-February. 1/7

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1892636587197923696

A Russian naval base in Sudan would support Russia’s strategic objective of threatening NATO’s southern flank from Africa and the Mediterranean Sea while decreasing Russian reliance on bases in Syria after the collapse of the Bashar al Assad regime in December 2024. 2/7

NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 captured the South Kivu provincial capital, Bukavu, and has continued to advance on several axes in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). 1/9 🧵🇨🇩🇷🇼

M23 advanced south from Bukavu toward Uvira, the second-most-populated city in South Kivu near Lake Tanganyika & Burundi’s economic capital, Bujumbura.

M23 also advanced southwest toward Kamituga, a gold mining hub and a gateway town to the south-central regions of the DRC. 2/9

NEW | Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on February 18, but Russia continues to display no indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western intelligence and US officials in line with ISW's longstanding assessment. (1/13) Many recent Russian statements show that the Kremlin remains uninterested in engaging in good faith negotiations and retains his objective of destroying the Ukrainian state while the Kremlin has offered no public indication that it would materially compromise. (2/13)

NEW | Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-Damascus Negotiations: A Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) commander stated that the SDF and the governing body in northeast Syria agreed to merge their forces into the Syrian Defense Ministry on February 17. There still appear to be several outstanding issues in negotiations between the SDF and the Syrian interim government, but both parties appear to be engaging with one another constructively. (1/4) SDF Negotiating Position: SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi is under tremendous pressure from internal SDF rivals, external Kurdish rivals, longtime enemies, and his allies to integrate with the Damascus government. This pressure appears to be pushing the SDF to gradually moderate its demands. Abdi probably sees an opportunity to avoid a major conflict with Damascus and solidify his own position, though he presumably recognizes that integration with the Syrian army is fraught with risk given the outstanding issues regarding integration. (2/4)

NEW I The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede additional territory in eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and disband the Ukrainian military in the future while continuing to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any future peace negotiations. 1/9 Lavrov and Nebenzya also categorically rejected European involvement in future peace negotiations and accused European countries of being aggressive toward Russia. 2/9

NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels declared a unilateral “humanitarian” ceasefire in the eastern DRC ahead of peace talks scheduled for February 7 and 8.

M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6
A long-term peace agreement is unlikely as the DRC still refuses to negotiate with M23, M23 and Rwanda still hold a military advantage to push for their maximalist demands, and there is not unanimous confidence in the regional blocs (EAC & SADC) as impartial mediators. 2/6

NEW I Both Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the Houthi movement ceased military operations against Israel after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which underscores that the October 7 War was a regional conflict between Iran and its Axis of Resistance and Israel. 1/7 The Prime Minister’s office said that the ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages should start at 0900 ET on January 19 after the Israeli cabinet approved the ceasefire on January 17. 2/7

NEW | Canadian gold mining company Barrick Gold temporarily suspended mining operations in Mali, and Russia is poised to fill any potential void. 1/6 🇲🇱🇨🇦🇷🇺 Barrick’s decision is the result of a multiyear Russian-supported campaign to extract more money from Western mining companies and possibly pressure them out of Mali entirely. 2/6

NEW | The Gaza ceasefire agreement, which the Israeli cabinet will vote to approve tomorrow, demonstrates that Hamas offered Israel several serious concessions. (1/10) The ceasefire agreement does not guarantee an end to the war. The short, 42-day first phase bans Israeli reconnaissance overflight of the Strip, but this would not give Hamas serious military advantage at this time. (2/10)

NEW | Iran conducted an air defense exercise for the second time in recent days.

This activity reflects Iranian concerns about possible airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, as Tehran has continued to expand its nuclear program.

Read below to learn more: The Artesh—the conventional Iranian military—exercises tested the manned and unmanned aircrafts as well as the following air defense systems, according to Iranian state media:

NEW | The Islamic State has evolved and expanded globally since ISIS' territorial defeat in 2019, enabling it to orchestrate and inspire attacks on the West.

IS may further strengthen by exploiting security vacuums in Syria and Africa. 🧵

IS retains a global network of affiliates despite its loss of its statelet in Iraq and Syria.

Its decentralized system helps coordinate between the group’s personnel in local theaters, the global IS network, and central IS leadership.

Chart via @ToreRHamming

NEW | An SDF delegation met with the leader of HTS to negotiate “military issues” while SDF forces continued to fight Turkish-backed militias in northern Syria. (1/7) The SDF is almost certainly both unable and unwilling to subordinate itself to the HTS-organized Defense Ministry at this time, given the organizational tasks implicit in that effort and the ongoing fighting with Turkish-backed forces. (2/7)

NEW I Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia's demand that Ukraine renounce its right to sovereignty and territorial integrity as a precondition to start peace talks, indicating that Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations. 1/9 The Kremlin appears to be prioritizing Russia's force generation requirements and domestic political stability over efforts to mitigate economic pressure and labor shortages going into 2025. 2/9

NEW | Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict. This most-dangerous scenario is not a foregone conclusion, however. 🧵 (1/8)


Some reports indicate that HTS-affiliated individuals have killed, arrested, and kidnapped Alawites and other Syrians for affiliation with the Assad regime. (2/8)

NEW: Building Syria’s Army | Syrian armed groups agreed to “dissolve” themselves and merge under the HTS-led Defense Ministry.

This does not mean that Syrian opposition forces will answer to the Defense Ministry in practice, however. 🧵

It is not immediately clear what groups outside of HTS-led and SNA-led structures participated in the meeting, nor is it clear what concrete steps the groups agreed to as part of dissolving themselves and merging under the HTS-led Defense Ministry.

NEW I The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Syrian interim government stated it will discuss mechanisms for disarming and dissolving the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) with SDF leadership, according to unspecified SDF sources. 1/8

The sources cited by a Syrian journalist claimed that the interim government will avoid any negotiation to establish a decentralized system that grants some autonomy to Kurdish-governed areas. 2/8