NEW | Syrian opposition forces toppled the Bashar al Assad regime after only 11 days of fighting. HTS under Julani is beginning to consolidate power in Damascus and across formerly regime-controlled territory. (1/5) HTS-affiliated forces appear to be taking control of the western bank of the Euphrates River, which the SDF had seized from the Syrian regime. The SDF clashed with the Turkish-backed SNA east of Aleppo City. (2/5)

NEW | Opposition forces may continue their rapid advance toward Homs City after capturing Hama City on December 5. Regime forces are likely collapsing as they retreat southwards towards Homs City. (1/8)
The regime does not appear to have established any defensive line between Hama City and the Orontes River. (2/8)

NEW I Russia is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria, which may suggest that Russia does not intend to send significant reinforcements to support Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in the near term. 1/6 The US announced additional military assistance worth $725 million for Ukraine on December 2. 2/6

NEW | The Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly told Lebanese Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire agreement that would require Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River. (1/6)


This report, assuming it is accurate, highlights the extent to which Iran lacks the capability or willingness to defend the Axis of Resistance against Israel. (2/6)

NEW | Ukrainian military officials warned that Russian forces may intensify assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast in the near future.

It is unclear if the Russian military intends to conduct a unified offensive operation or separate assaults.
Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn told Reuters in a November 11 article that Russian forces are moving trained assault groups to forward positions in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

Hezbollah is relying on rocket and mortar shelling to harass Israeli positions and has abandoned high-end supplies.

Learn why @brian_cartr assesses Hezbollah’s forces are in disarray🧵⬇️
Rockets and mortars cannot defend ground alone, and Hezbollah has not conducted any sophisticated multi-stage ambushes.

Hezbollah is not combining rocket and mortar attacks with infantry, which would be necessary to effectively defend against Israeli attacks.

Israel has routed Hezbollah units, at least the immediate border area.

Hezbollah has so far failed to effectively execute any serious military undertaking at scale.

Read the analysis from @brian_cartr 🧵⬇️
The IDF entered Lebanon in force on October 1 after a months-long air and ground campaign that disrupted Hezbollah’s command structure.

Israel’s persistent airstrikes likely continue to disrupt Hezbollah reorganization efforts.

NEW | The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted three waves of strikes into Iran on October 25. The strikes were in response to the large-scale ballistic missile attack that Iran launched against Israel on October 1. The IDF targeted around 20 locations around Tehran and western Iran, including vital air defense assets and facilities tied to the Iranian drone and missile programs. 1/5 The IDF in particular struck four S-300 air defense batteries, which are Russian-made and the most advanced air defense system that Iran operates. That the IDF hit these batteries highlights the relative vulnerabilities of the S-300, especially against advanced platforms like the F-35 fighter jet. 2/5

NEW | A senior Israeli intelligence official told Iranian anti-regime media that Israel’s recent operations in Lebanon have disrupted Iran’s ability to provide funds to Hezbollah. (1/9) Hezbollah’s chief media official said that Hezbollah is attempting to capture Israeli soldiers. (2/9)

What are the implications of Yahya Sinwar’s death, and why will his death fail to end the war?

Sinwar’s death brings two senior military officials to the fore: Mohammad Sinwar (L) and Izz al Din al Haddad (R).

Read the latest from @brian_cartr to learn more 🧵
Sinwar’s brother Mohammad Sinwar is the most likely candidate to officially take over the group’s military wing and guide the rebuilding of Hamas.

Mohammad joined Hamas’ earliest cells in the 1980s, later rising to lead Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade.

https://x.com/criticalthreats/status/1847282291606757842

NEW I Israel has issued new security protocols for some of its northern communities in anticipation of intensifying conflict with Lebanese Hezbollah. 1/7 Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari announced the new measures for residents on September 21 in response to indications that Hezbollah is preparing to launch rocket attacks into Israel. 2/7

Iranian officials suggested that Iran will delay its retaliation against Israel for the death of former Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh until after ceasefire negotiations conclude. 1/5 The United States and international mediators have maintained pressure on Iran to encourage Tehran to delay or indefinitely postpone its attack, arguing that such a delay could help deescalate regional tension. 2/5

NEW | Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei indicated that he still believes Iran must respond to Israeli operations targeting senior Axis of Resistance leaders in recent weeks, despite back-channel threats from the United States emphasizing that Israel would respond forcefully to an attack that kills Israeli civilians or causes significant damage. 1/11 Official Hamas statements suggest that a ceasefire during the August 15 Doha talks is unlikely. Unspecified Hamas officials have suggested that Hamas could attend the talks, however. 2/11

NEW | Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. 1/12

The Kremlin's response to Ukrainian offensive activities in Kursk Oblast has so far been contradictory, as Russian officials are attempting to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent. 2/12

NEW | Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani defended Iran’s impending retaliatory strike against Israel while signaling that Iran seeks to avoid a regional war during an Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 7. 1/10 The Axis of Resistance and Iran are coalescing around Yahya Sinwar as Hamas’ new leader. Sinwar’s leadership is very unlikely to change Hamas’ maximalist position on ceasefire and hostage negotiations in the Gaza Strip. 2/10

In the Nigerien junta's first year of rule, it has sought to address economic challenges that could threaten regime stability by working with China, Iran, Russia, and Turkey to secure quick revenue. 1/8

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1815775184135032884

The junta is still experiencing significant economic shortfalls following regional sanctions that ended in February.

These issues led to massive budget cuts, debt defaults, stunted economic growth, and growing food prices and poverty. 2/8

NEW | Hamas, Fatah and other unspecified Palestinian political factions agreed on a vision for post-war governance of the Gaza Strip on July 23 during “intra-Palestinian reconciliation” talks in Beijing. The United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are separately advancing an alternative post-war governance vision for the Gaza Strip that conflicts with the Beijing meeting’s vision.

NEW | Niger revoked the operating permit for a uranium mine from French state-owned mining company Orano. Russia aims to assume operations based on an early June Bloomberg report that Russian state-owned nuclear company Rosatom is in talks to acquire Orano's Nigerien assets. 1/5 The Nigerien junta is likely seeking military support or near-term access to revenue to bolster its counterinsurgency efforts and economy, strengthening its regime security. The junta has brokered other deals to exchange natural resources for loans and weapons in 2024. 2/5

NEW | The reported presence of high-level Islamic State leaders in Somalia & across Africa reflects African affiliates' increasingly critical role in the IS global network, including funding external attacks & recruiting foreign fighters. 1/8 A US drone strike targeted IS Somalia Province (ISS) Emir Abdulqadir Mumin in May. US officials claimed that Mumin became IS’s “global leader” in 2023. Independent analysts have clarified that Mumin likely leads the General Directorate of Provinces & is not the IS caliph. 2/8

One area Russian officials focused on during their Africa tours is strengthening Russia’s military footprint. The Kremlin uses military influence in Africa to leverage limited resources to create opportunities to threaten Europe & advance Russia's image as a great power. 1/7

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1798742816279167017

Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov pledged to boost Libyan National Army capabilities, signed a multi-sectoral agreement with Niger, and discussed military cooperation w/ Mali. Foreign Minister Lavrov also announced that Russia would send more military support to Burkina Faso. 2/7

NEW | Russian officials are visiting Africa, seeking to advance the Kremlin’s strategic goals of supplanting Western influence & better positioning Russia for prolonged confrontation with the West by tightening military, economic, and political ties with African partners. 1/8


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Guinea, Congo, Burkina Faso, and Chad, while Deputy Defense Minister Yunus Bek Yevkurov visited Libya, Mali, and Niger on separate trips between May 31 and June 5. 2/8