NEW poll from TPOF finds mass majority of Taiwan public still support re-extending length of compulsory military service for male to 1-year (from 4-month). This level of support is similar to our past poll done in March. #TaiwanMilitary
Same poll finds most Taiwanese believe current 4-month conscription is too short and insufficient given level of military threats from China.
Unsurprisingly the only age group that is hesitant to support extending conscription is between 20-24, an age group of which many male most likely haven't yet fulfil service and could be facing longer "term".
As a reminder, @MoNDefense made plenty statements claiming its "moving toward" 1-year service, but have done few preparation on necessary logistics. Because Tsai @iingwen govt does not have the gut to commit to such move due to a combination of fear/procrastination/incompetence.
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NEW monthly poll from TPOF finds Taiwan Pres. Tsai @iingwen approval rate nosedived after DPP's disastrous defeat at Nov. local elections. At 52% disapproval, Tsai is as unpopular as during 2018/19. A 🧵here, for full release see: tpof.org/wp-content/upl…
Majority Taiwanese also wants Premier @eballgogogo's cabinet be replaced, which Tsai has yet to commit to. (In Taiwan Premier is head of central govt. but serves at the pleasure of President. Historically Premiers almost always resign/replaced following party electoral losses)
Who will be running for Taiwan's 2024 presidential election? Poll finds in a three-way race btwn. KMT New Taipei City @houyuih, Tsai's Vice Pres. @ChingteLai (DPP), and outgoing Taipei City Mayor @KP_Taipei, Hou easily prevails with comfortable margin over both Lai and Ko.
Argentina vs England (War)
Having some fun playing the new Falklands War DLC of Command Modern Operations #CMO, one of the best air & naval combat simulators out there.
Time is May 4, 1982, can I repeat Argentine Air Force's famous (or infamous) feat that day?
We know the history: Argentine AF, with just a few Super Etendards jets and Exocet anti-ship missiles (ordered 15 from France but only 5 delivered)
launched a daring attack on @RoyalNavy main fleet and sank HMS Sheffield, a Type 42 destroyer, to the horror of British public.
In CMO Falklands War DLC we are given the same limited assets as the Argentine commander had: 2x Super Etendards each with just 1x Exocet, facing Royal Navy armada TF 317.8 of 2 aircraft carriers escorted by a dozen destroyers and frigates, not to mention the Sea Harriers on CAP!
Got to disagree. That's an insult to the PLA.
IJA/IJN were piss poor at force planning and built a clumsy war machine with ~50% Japan's GDP based on totally faulty intel. and assumptions about the US. For example this classic memo by Eizo Hori, a G2 officer at IJA General Staff..
Hori calculated an IJA division (師団) had only 1/3 the combined firepower of a US Marine division! No one at IJA General Staff realized this, and for years planning was done assuming 1 IJA div. = 1 US div, disastrous results ensued for the Japanese defenses across the pacific.
Suffice to say PLA today is NOT the IJA. Rather, IJA disfunctions bear all the hallmarks of Taiwan military today.
Did you know.. Chiang Kai-shek hired a bunch of former IJA generals, some really incompetent ones even, to "train" ROC army post-ww2? zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E7%99%B…
Finland here is prepping what Taiwan should do seriously with 10x efforts but not doing.
TW Air Force bases/runways are certain to be massively bombarded (PLA DF missiles, WS rockets etc.) in the first hour of war. Its "dispersion" preps and exercises so far are a complete joke.
As I explained in this report for @NBRnews earlier, runways and air power destruction/incapacitation is the single point of failure in Taiwan's "defenses". A problem long identified and feared, but @MoNDefense and Taiwan leadership never took seriously. nbr.org/publication/me…
Designated "dispersion runways" are just a few sections of *highways* across Taiwan that in normal time are insanely busy and congested with road traffic. MND dispersion "exercises" for PR show were all planned and prepped weeks/months in advance, traffic cleared out day before!
Bombshell today: Yu Tsung-chi, a ret. Taiwan Army general, said yrs back South Korea under Pres. Moon Jae-in sent a group to Taiwan to study feasibility of shortening Korea's conscription, appalling state of Taiwan's 4-month conscripts shocked them and quickly dropped the idea.
Specifically a group from Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), a Korea govt think tank, was sent to Taiwan to observe @MoNDefense's conscript "training". During Yu's Korea visit sometime later KIDA ppl. revealed to them this was key in Moon govt. keeping the conscription.
Today's forum organized by Fair Winds Foundation featured Yu and other Taiwan defense experts inc. Chieh Chung. All gave pessimistic assessments regarding Tsai govt's claimed "plan" for re-extending conscription from 4-month to 1-year. Some don't think govt is even serious.
Did you know.. Cai Qi, a new (and arguably the least expected) China CCP Politburo Standing Committee member, visited Taiwan in 2012 and published a short diary?
Here are my takeaways from reading it so you don't have to:
In 2012 Cai Qi was a local CCP official of Zhejiang province and visited Taiwan on a delegation. The diary was originally published on a @caixin blog, now deleted. Taiwan netizens backed it up, full text of which you can read it here in Chinese: m.gamer.com.tw/home/creationD…
It is necessary to understand the background of this 2012 trip: Ma Ying-jeou was then Taiwan's president, China-Taiwan trade and ppl. exchanges were growing rapidly, Beijing was warm toward Ma's KMT govt (at least on the surface), a "honeymoon" period of cross-strait relations.