Paul Huang Profile picture
Research Fellow at Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation. Visiting Scholar at @Harvard @FairbankCenter. @FletcherSchool grad. paul.huang.TW@protonmail.com
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May 21 7 tweets 3 min read
Lai @ChingteLai sworn in as ROC (Taiwan) President on 5/20. What can we learn from his inauguration speech?
For one, Lai explicitly paraded with "Indo-Pac. Security Act" by US Congress, seems he truly believes it means actual US mil. aids to Taiwan, which is an utter fantasy. Image Let's make it clear: There will be *zero* "US military aids" (as in "free" freebie) to Taiwan.
Whatever will be delivered would only be those already purchased and paid in full by Taiwan but [promised] deliveries delayed for yrs. This "$1.9b "efense articles" are merely those. Image
May 19 10 tweets 6 min read
As a matter of fact, "legislative brawl" is nothing new in Taiwan. Has been going on since day 1 of Taiwan's democracy. All* partisan sides initiated/abused it, usually when in LY minority (this year's case DPP)
I will explain why this came to be a Taiwanese tradition👇


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In early years (late 1980s/early 90s) oppositions (e.g. DPP) were minority in the LY. To "counter" KMT majority, some DPP MPs resorted to "physical" oppositions. One of worst early offenders was Ju Gau-jeng, a DPP MP infamous for numerous fighting in the LY.
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May 1 9 tweets 5 min read
ROC (#Taiwan) President Tsai @iingwen will finish her two-terms on May 20, when @ChingteLai will take over. How do Taiwanese public see Tsai's legacy last 8 years?
This NEW poll by TPOF did a wide ranging survey, check out the report here:
(Thread)
tpof.org/wp-content/upl…
Image Most importantly, at the end of Tsai presidency Taiwan public have divided views on her govt's handling of cross-strait relations, which has seen China's ever escalating military incursions & posture against Taiwan.
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May 18, 2023 5 tweets 4 min read
Is Taiwan ruling govt. showing off to the world (or China) how piss-poor its military is?
Last week @MoNDefense organized a so-called "first female reserve training" inviting 60(!) journalists to see 14 female reservists.
For starter: Clear violation of BASIC gun safety rules. ImageImageImage You see this army sergeant (supposedly an active service soldier) not even correcting such horrendous safety violation, something even American boy scouts are trained not to do.
Why? Because Taiwan military rarely taught its troops even basic firearm safety rules. That's why. ImageImage
Apr 23, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
What do Taiwanese public think about "One China" and so-called "1992 Consensus"?
Latest poll by TPOF finds a strong majority of 67% disagree with the *BASIC* version of OC/92C i.e.
“Taiwan and the mainland belong to one China”.
However there's more to it.. Image What about Taiwan's opposition party @kuomintang's official position on OC/92C? Namely:
“..One China is the Republic of China (ROC)”

In which case, substantially more Taiwanese agree to it though still opposed by just half of the people. Image
Mar 2, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
It is unfortunate Japan's Nikkei @4946nikkei published some awful *anonymous* "reports" on Taiwan's military & politics making wild but unsubstantiated, illogical allegations.
It claims (anon. source) 90% (!) TW military's retired officers went to China to be recruited as spies. Even as a noted critic of Taiwan's military, I do not make accusations of Chinese spies within or Q of allegiance lightly as I have not seen evidence they are as widespread as some repeatedly claimed.
TW military is incompetent, but not *infiltrated*.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27….
Feb 3, 2023 6 tweets 4 min read
If you read Chinese, check out this new book by @FaustoChou, a Taiwan journalist's tell-all of his recent 4-month mil. service in Taiwan "Republic of China" army, a first-hand review of the extreme dysfunction and ineptness of Taiwan's @MoNDefense & govt.
play.google.com/books/reader?i… My favorite part is his army basic training "graduation certificate" listed him as having "failed" the training but still sent him off to field unit anyway. He still doesn't know what part of training he "failed" since there was little serious "test" to speak of. A typo maybe?
Jan 21, 2023 8 tweets 6 min read
NEW poll by TPOF shows Taiwanese dissatisfaction continues to grow with Pres. Tsai @iingwen, her Premier @eballgogogo and cabinet (which Tsai seems reluctant to let go), and various areas of governance.
For English release see:
tpof.org/wp-content/upl… On perception of economic wellbeing through 2022, poll finds a noticeable uptick in the number of Taiwanese felt they were in worse economic shape last year. This is despite Taiwan govt figures shown higher GDP per capita growth than many countries.
Jan 11, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
For those interested, Matthew Pottinger and his wife are speaking in Taipei giving insight into US Trump govt. [mis]handling of COVID responses.
While they heap lavish praises of Taiwan they also made many unintentionally contradictory/ironic comments.
Yen Pottinger, a virologist, praised Taiwan and said "Nationalism and vaccine dev. don't work well, not in the best interest of people."
Is she talking about.. Taiwan? I am sure she didn't get the memo how Tsai govt heavily promoted and favored a questionable domestic vaccine.
Dec 23, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
NEW poll from TPOF finds mass majority of Taiwan public still support re-extending length of compulsory military service for male to 1-year (from 4-month). This level of support is similar to our past poll done in March.
#TaiwanMilitary Image Same poll finds most Taiwanese believe current 4-month conscription is too short and insufficient given level of military threats from China. Image
Dec 23, 2022 6 tweets 5 min read
NEW monthly poll from TPOF finds Taiwan Pres. Tsai @iingwen approval rate nosedived after DPP's disastrous defeat at Nov. local elections. At 52% disapproval, Tsai is as unpopular as during 2018/19. A 🧵here, for full release see:
tpof.org/wp-content/upl… ImageImage Majority Taiwanese also wants Premier @eballgogogo's cabinet be replaced, which Tsai has yet to commit to. (In Taiwan Premier is head of central govt. but serves at the pleasure of President. Historically Premiers almost always resign/replaced following party electoral losses) ImageImage
Dec 5, 2022 15 tweets 9 min read
Argentina vs England (War)
Having some fun playing the new Falklands War DLC of Command Modern Operations #CMO, one of the best air & naval combat simulators out there.
Time is May 4, 1982, can I repeat Argentine Air Force's famous (or infamous) feat that day? We know the history: Argentine AF, with just a few Super Etendards jets and Exocet anti-ship missiles (ordered 15 from France but only 5 delivered)
launched a daring attack on @RoyalNavy main fleet and sank HMS Sheffield, a Type 42 destroyer, to the horror of British public.
Nov 23, 2022 5 tweets 3 min read
Got to disagree. That's an insult to the PLA.
IJA/IJN were piss poor at force planning and built a clumsy war machine with ~50% Japan's GDP based on totally faulty intel. and assumptions about the US. For example this classic memo by Eizo Hori, a G2 officer at IJA General Staff.. Hori calculated an IJA division (師団) had only 1/3 the combined firepower of a US Marine division! No one at IJA General Staff realized this, and for years planning was done assuming 1 IJA div. = 1 US div, disastrous results ensued for the Japanese defenses across the pacific.
Nov 22, 2022 6 tweets 4 min read
Finland here is prepping what Taiwan should do seriously with 10x efforts but not doing.
TW Air Force bases/runways are certain to be massively bombarded (PLA DF missiles, WS rockets etc.) in the first hour of war. Its "dispersion" preps and exercises so far are a complete joke. As I explained in this report for @NBRnews earlier, runways and air power destruction/incapacitation is the single point of failure in Taiwan's "defenses". A problem long identified and feared, but @MoNDefense and Taiwan leadership never took seriously.
nbr.org/publication/me…
Nov 19, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
Bombshell today: Yu Tsung-chi, a ret. Taiwan Army general, said yrs back South Korea under Pres. Moon Jae-in sent a group to Taiwan to study feasibility of shortening Korea's conscription, appalling state of Taiwan's 4-month conscripts shocked them and quickly dropped the idea. Specifically a group from Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), a Korea govt think tank, was sent to Taiwan to observe @MoNDefense's conscript "training". During Yu's Korea visit sometime later KIDA ppl. revealed to them this was key in Moon govt. keeping the conscription.
Oct 26, 2022 16 tweets 7 min read
Did you know.. Cai Qi, a new (and arguably the least expected) China CCP Politburo Standing Committee member, visited Taiwan in 2012 and published a short diary?
Here are my takeaways from reading it so you don't have to: ImageImage In 2012 Cai Qi was a local CCP official of Zhejiang province and visited Taiwan on a delegation. The diary was originally published on a @caixin blog, now deleted. Taiwan netizens backed it up, full text of which you can read it here in Chinese:
m.gamer.com.tw/home/creationD… Image
Oct 16, 2022 14 tweets 8 min read
Deepest thanks to Mike and GMU @ScharSchool for the opportunity to share with US folks. Beside the video I will also share my presentation here for those interested.
Per our poll Taiwan public did not buy into govt's PR narrative that we are "learning lessons from Ukraine". ImageImage Ukraine, incl. its political leadership post-Maidan committed to military reforms and transformation which I argued is what enabled it to fight effectively against Russians this year (though at immense costs). That commitment does not exist in Taiwan's leadership today. Image
Jul 29, 2022 12 tweets 6 min read
Among Taiwan military insiders it's generally established that @MoNDefense annual "Han Kuang" exercise items are just staged PR displays not meant to be done nor taken seriously. Let's look at this "trench" fortification site TW Army built in Bali as an example shall we? ImageImage First let the fact sink in a military in 2022 would fancy building sandbags-filled trench system some 100m next to coastline to defend against supposed amphibious attack from the Chinees PLA. It's even built beneath a still in construction elevated highway. ImageImage
Apr 22, 2022 25 tweets 11 min read
What's Taiwan military's "reserve" training really like?
I finished my military service a decade ago as an army corporal. As a reservist I got called up by @MoNDefense last month for a week long training. Here's what I saw. Buckle up and be prepared to.. be disappointed. 1/
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You will have to excuse the lack of photographic evidence since smartphones are taken away from reservists right at the gate. Strictly enforced. You'd think it's about "security", in reality it's more to do with MND wanting to avoid embarrassing photo from getting out. 2/