Callum Thomas Profile picture
Dec 24, 2022 13 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm time!!

$SPX $SPY $ES_F $VIX $STUDY
Slightly different format than usual given quieter time-of-year: focusing on some of the more timeless charts of the ChartStorms of the past year or so... 🤓🧐🤔
1. Plenty of folk out there telling you to buy and hold and dollar cost average and focus on the long-term

Which is all well and good, but just be mindful that lost decades are actually relatively common...

h/t @MikeZaccardi chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
2. Long-Term Perspective on S&P500 earnings

Yes it's out of date, but the key takeaway is that overall longer term -- the trend is your friend. But also note the cycles around the trend (the cycle is an active investors best friend!).

h/t @SamRo chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
3. Another long-term perspective...

Buffett made his first billion in his early 50's, wasn't until he was 65 that he would make his first 10 billion.

h/t @DividendGrowth chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
4. Long-Term Shifts...

The US stock market went from 15% of global equity markets in 1899 to 56% in 2021.

What will the next 122 years bring?

h/t @MacroAlf chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
5. Index (no)Effect

Used to be that when a stock got added/deleted from an index you'd see a big bump/dump, no more.

Perfect example of a market anomaly getting arbitraged out of existence.

h/t @drtimedwards
6. S&P500 Labor Intensity

"In 1986, it took 8 employees to generate US$1 million in revenue. Today, the S&P 500 is 70% less labor intensive than it was in the 80s"

h/t @ISABELNET_SA chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
7. CEO Pay of S&P500 Companies

Snapshot is from a year or two ago, but pretty interesting to see the clustering, range, and tails of the distribution...

h/t @chriswmayer chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
8. Computers vs Humans

Apparently computers manage more AUM than humans...

h/t @StatistaCharts chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
9. Founders vs Flounders...

Founder-led companies have historically outperformed the rest. Makes sense.

h/t @_inpractise chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
10. Interesting food for thought on founders...

"the older you are, the more likely you are to succeed as a startup founder" (sweet spot seems to be 50's).

Not only is it never too late to start, it might even be better to start later.

h/t @ASvanevik chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
Weekly ChartStorm write-up will be published soon...

Meantime be sure to subscribe: chartstorm.substack.com

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More from @Callum_Thomas

Apr 7
The rally in Gold is *not* (yet) a retail thing

Retail implied allocations to gold (via ETFs) are still at the bottom of the range, barely moved [despite gold breaking out to new all-time highs, and beating stocks YTD, up more than 10%] Image
"so who's buying then?"

chart @JanGold_ via @HumbleStudent Image
@JanGold_ @HumbleStudent Retail/ETFs again...

This time *Flows*

Despite a stunning breakout, no flows.

Gold previously topped out and took a breather when ETF flows got overheated. No risk of that right now... Image
Read 8 tweets
May 17, 2023
The MONTHLY ChartStorm - May 2023

$SPX $SPY $ES_F $VIX $STUDY

(thread)
Welcome to the inaugural MONTHLY ChartStorm — basically a digest of some of the most intriguing charts of the past month from the (now paywalled) Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm
1. Allocations vs Sentiment

Despite some of the most bearish sentiment readings in recent history, investors only slightly reduced equity allocations. And now they're reassessing the situation...

h/t @topdowncharts Image
Read 11 tweets
May 14, 2023
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
1. There are bull markets, bear markets, and bored markets. 🥱
2. Investment manager sentiment has plunged (and recent track record has been prescient, not contrarian), meanwhile retail buying is turning up. 🧐
Read 9 tweets
Apr 30, 2023
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:
1. April marks the 4th month in a row that the S&P500 closed above its 10-month moving average. Yet, the index remains below key overhead resistance levels.
2. We are heading into a seasonally sloppy patch for stock markets globally.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 29, 2023
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
[Bearish = rising yields]
[Bullish = falling yields]
Rebound in bulls vs bears, but still net-bearish Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 26, 2023
Off-Topic ChartStorm on Bond Yields 👇🧵🚀

$MACRO $BONDS $FED $TNX $TLT $IEF
(from the unpaywalled post here: chartstorm.substack.com/p/off-topic-ch… )
1. “if this was a stock, it would be a decent setup”

(breakout, moving averages turning up, short-term moving average crossover)

Way I look at the world, if I see a technical chart like this to me it is a prompt to go and see if there's a there there...

h/t @jonathanharrier Image
Read 15 tweets

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