Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm time!!

$SPX $SPY $ES_F $VIX $STUDY
Slightly different format than usual given quieter time-of-year: focusing on some of the more timeless charts of the ChartStorms of the past year or so... 🤓🧐🤔
1. Plenty of folk out there telling you to buy and hold and dollar cost average and focus on the long-term

Which is all well and good, but just be mindful that lost decades are actually relatively common...

h/t @MikeZaccardi chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
2. Long-Term Perspective on S&P500 earnings

Yes it's out of date, but the key takeaway is that overall longer term -- the trend is your friend. But also note the cycles around the trend (the cycle is an active investors best friend!).

h/t @SamRo chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
3. Another long-term perspective...

Buffett made his first billion in his early 50's, wasn't until he was 65 that he would make his first 10 billion.

h/t @DividendGrowth chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
4. Long-Term Shifts...

The US stock market went from 15% of global equity markets in 1899 to 56% in 2021.

What will the next 122 years bring?

h/t @MacroAlf chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
5. Index (no)Effect

Used to be that when a stock got added/deleted from an index you'd see a big bump/dump, no more.

Perfect example of a market anomaly getting arbitraged out of existence.

h/t @drtimedwards
6. S&P500 Labor Intensity

"In 1986, it took 8 employees to generate US$1 million in revenue. Today, the S&P 500 is 70% less labor intensive than it was in the 80s"

h/t @ISABELNET_SA chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
7. CEO Pay of S&P500 Companies

Snapshot is from a year or two ago, but pretty interesting to see the clustering, range, and tails of the distribution...

h/t @chriswmayer chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
8. Computers vs Humans

Apparently computers manage more AUM than humans...

h/t @StatistaCharts chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
9. Founders vs Flounders...

Founder-led companies have historically outperformed the rest. Makes sense.

h/t @_inpractise chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
10. Interesting food for thought on founders...

"the older you are, the more likely you are to succeed as a startup founder" (sweet spot seems to be 50's).

Not only is it never too late to start, it might even be better to start later.

h/t @ASvanevik chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and…
Weekly ChartStorm write-up will be published soon...

Meantime be sure to subscribe: chartstorm.substack.com

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More from @Callum_Thomas

Nov 29
fintwit Chart Etiquette thread

(just my own personal rules, but I think they make sense so encourage others to use as they see fit)
1. Give credit to the source if you share a chart

try to source it to the original creator if possible
1.1. if you got the chart off twitter then @ the source's twitter handle (either in the tweet e.g. h/t @... or at least as a reply to the tweet if you can't squeeze it in)

[of course you can just QT/RT, but sometimes it does make more sense to share the chart in a new tweet]
Read 12 tweets
Nov 27
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
[Bearish = rising yields]
[Bullish = falling yields]
equity survey ever so slightly less net-bearish on the week, but yeah still very much decisively bearish. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 12
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
[Bearish = rising yields]
[Bullish = falling yields]
Equity survey not nearly as bullish as you might have expected, lot of skepticism on this rally... Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 7
Fed Loan Officer Survey just released...

Banks are tightening credit criteria

And raising the cost of business loans Image
In line with that, and a softer economy, demand for new loans by businesses is falling fast Image
Demand drop is particularly notable for commercial real estate and residential mortgages

This is the rate shock and property drop. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Sep 4
👀👀👀

#Sentix Survey -- US equity Sentiment as measured in this survey reached an all-time low as of this weekend.

$SPX $SPY
Commentary by @sentixsurvey

(n.b. you can get their commentary/survey charts if you sign up to contribute to the surveys)
Longer-term perspective...
Read 4 tweets
Sep 3
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
[Bearish = rising yields]
[Bullish = falling yields]
Equity survey ticked up slightly on the week, but still tracking near survey-history lows: clear and pervasive bearishness
Read 4 tweets

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