Thread by @ChrisBloomstran

Who could forget the C-Suite high jinks when Elon and CFO Zach Kirkhorn invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and added the titles "Technoking of Tesla" and "Master of Coin?" Since the March 15, 2021 rebranding, Tesla and Bitcoin are down 48% and 70%, respectively. Great fun.🎄 1/

While the Bitcoin position and the Tesla outside shareholders have suffered mightily, how have the INSIDERS fared? If you guessed considerably better you are correct. Collectively the brass at Tesla appear to have unloaded 126 million Tesla shares for more than $41 billion. 2/

While Elon's sales are the preponderance of that, selling at an average share price of $325 is pretty good when measured against the present $123.15 price. That's a current bid 62% below the average sale. Nearly all shares were gifts from the board, not bought out of pocket. 3/

Brother Kimball was the most prescient seller, nearly top-ticking $109 million at $409.69 a share on 11/5/21, the Friday before Elon's weekend tweet suggesting he'd be selling on Monday. Who knew. Great instinct little brother. 4/

Against a current 3.158 billion shares outstanding (not including more insider dilution to come), the sales of 126 million shares represent only 4% of the shares out but the $41 billion in proceeds is more than 10% of the current $389 billion market cap. Perspective. 5/

Putting the $41 billion in insider sales into further perspective, over the history of the company Tesla raised $32 billion in equity and earned cumulative profits of $9 billion. Cumulative cash flow from operations totals $32 billion. Book value foots to $41 billion. 6/

Insiders have sold shares worth more than equity capital raised, cumulative profit (regardless of how measured), or book value, which adds equity capital raised plus cumulative profit. The company has never paid a dividend. Who's winning here? 7/

Nobody said insiders were dumb. Perhaps they have some ideas about the current state of the car company business and what the company might report as revenue and profit come January? Dunno. Elon's most recent nearly $4 billion sale on 12/12 was his SINGLE LARGEST to date. 8/

The Master of Coin also unloaded a net 11,344 RSU shares for a cool $2 million at $181.85. The sale was his second largest to date by number of shares (nowhere near that by dollars given the decline). Why would a CFO and the rest be selling now with prices so seemingly low? 9/

Great🎄graphic here. The hard-to-spot small green dots represent each insider buy over the past 5 years. Those total 8 and end in 2020 when the stock raced beyond any sane measure of value. The red dots indicate each sale and appear to total somewhere close to a bazillion. 10/

All I know is the Tesla faithful are seemingly growing impatient, to put it mildly. Ross and Gary are going back and forth with the CEO on their respective masteries of Securities Analysis 101. Ross wants a board seat. The CEO owns this bird platform which occupies some time. 11/

In waging a shouting match against half of the political spectrum (largely his customers), he's jeopardizing the brand and the advertising revenue. Poking legislators (also his regulators) has the business in the crosshairs. Inventories likely building. Competition is here. 12/

Premium brands and companies in high growth mode cutting prices to stimulate year-end demand? R&D or SG&A haven't grown in years. Models are stale. We are nearing the realization that this business likely has no moat. How many retail shareholders have big margin positions? 13/

Matters not. Santa rides tonight and Tesla insiders are enjoying fatted goose, $41B to the good, and counting. Meanwhile, the Tesla shareholder gets coal this year. Something tells me that despite promises to the contrary, insider selling continues. Some may be involuntary. 14/

Ongoing disclosure, my short remains open (though smaller given a 39% gain). Will cover at some point. I don't recommend shorting to anyone. Unlimited downside, 100% max upside, cost of borrow all introduce risk. Wishing all of #TSLA and #TSLAX Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!