Who could forget the C-Suite high jinks when Elon and CFO Zach Kirkhorn invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and added the titles "Technoking of Tesla" and "Master of Coin?" Since the March 15, 2021 rebranding, Tesla and Bitcoin are down 48% and 70%, respectively. Great fun.🎄 1/
While the Bitcoin position and the Tesla outside shareholders have suffered mightily, how have the INSIDERS fared? If you guessed considerably better you are correct. Collectively the brass at Tesla appear to have unloaded 126 million Tesla shares for more than $41 billion. 2/
While Elon's sales are the preponderance of that, selling at an average share price of $325 is pretty good when measured against the present $123.15 price. That's a current bid 62% below the average sale. Nearly all shares were gifts from the board, not bought out of pocket. 3/
Brother Kimball was the most prescient seller, nearly top-ticking $109 million at $409.69 a share on 11/5/21, the Friday before Elon's weekend tweet suggesting he'd be selling on Monday. Who knew. Great instinct little brother. 4/
Against a current 3.158 billion shares outstanding (not including more insider dilution to come), the sales of 126 million shares represent only 4% of the shares out but the $41 billion in proceeds is more than 10% of the current $389 billion market cap. Perspective. 5/
Putting the $41 billion in insider sales into further perspective, over the history of the company Tesla raised $32 billion in equity and earned cumulative profits of $9 billion. Cumulative cash flow from operations totals $32 billion. Book value foots to $41 billion. 6/
Insiders have sold shares worth more than equity capital raised, cumulative profit (regardless of how measured), or book value, which adds equity capital raised plus cumulative profit. The company has never paid a dividend. Who's winning here? 7/
Nobody said insiders were dumb. Perhaps they have some ideas about the current state of the car company business and what the company might report as revenue and profit come January? Dunno. Elon's most recent nearly $4 billion sale on 12/12 was his SINGLE LARGEST to date. 8/
The Master of Coin also unloaded a net 11,344 RSU shares for a cool $2 million at $181.85. The sale was his second largest to date by number of shares (nowhere near that by dollars given the decline). Why would a CFO and the rest be selling now with prices so seemingly low? 9/
Great🎄graphic here. The hard-to-spot small green dots represent each insider buy over the past 5 years. Those total 8 and end in 2020 when the stock raced beyond any sane measure of value. The red dots indicate each sale and appear to total somewhere close to a bazillion. 10/
All I know is the Tesla faithful are seemingly growing impatient, to put it mildly. Ross and Gary are going back and forth with the CEO on their respective masteries of Securities Analysis 101. Ross wants a board seat. The CEO owns this bird platform which occupies some time. 11/
In waging a shouting match against half of the political spectrum (largely his customers), he's jeopardizing the brand and the advertising revenue. Poking legislators (also his regulators) has the business in the crosshairs. Inventories likely building. Competition is here. 12/
Premium brands and companies in high growth mode cutting prices to stimulate year-end demand? R&D or SG&A haven't grown in years. Models are stale. We are nearing the realization that this business likely has no moat. How many retail shareholders have big margin positions? 13/
Matters not. Santa rides tonight and Tesla insiders are enjoying fatted goose, $41B to the good, and counting. Meanwhile, the Tesla shareholder gets coal this year. Something tells me that despite promises to the contrary, insider selling continues. Some may be involuntary. 14/
Ongoing disclosure, my short remains open (though smaller given a 39% gain). Will cover at some point. I don't recommend shorting to anyone. Unlimited downside, 100% max upside, cost of borrow all introduce risk. Wishing all of #TSLA and #TSLAX Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Christopher Bloomstran

Christopher Bloomstran Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ChrisBloomstran

Dec 17
Unlocking this valuation genius. When offering to buy Twitter on April 14 for $54.20, $44 billion, the 3-mo T-bill yielded 0.77%. Today, at 4.20% (what are the odds), it’s reported Twitter is seeking a new equity “funding round” at the same $44 billion valuation. Fascinating. 1/
Given the purchase closed on October 27, solidly in Q4, curious as well if Twitter will open the interim books to prospective “investors.” As a public company, Twitter naturally wouldn’t publish financials until 12/31. It’s reported the money needs to be raised before yearend. 2/
I’m quite certain prospective investors will want to see the state of revenues. Conventional wisdom here on Twitter believes a massive cut in labor means huge margin expansion. Important when on $5B in revenues and $13B in debt, $1.2B in interest expense exceeds $1B in EBITDA. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Dec 2
Bernie Madoff was charming. Ponzi operators generally don’t begin as crooks, but once losses develop and they first steal to finance the “makeup trade,” their new criminal career is set. Imagine the sociopathic charm required to raise sustaining capital from ongoing victims? 1/
Ponzis work as long as incoming money is sufficient to finance withdrawals. At the point SBF took customer money to cover losses at Alameda, he was now Madoff. If Ackman believes the kid, and Mr. Wonderful believes Ackman, look into how many sophisticates believed Madoff. 2/
By the time SBF reveled as the next Warren Buffett and Forbes 400er, he had evidently already moved client money to his private trading fund. He knew he was a fraud but convinced otherwise smart people to believe him. Some still do it seems, not seeing a forest for the trees. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Nov 23
On 3/20/21 ARK released a “research report” suggesting Tesla would trade for $3,000 ($1,000 post-split) in 5 years. The stock at $169.91 is down 24%.

On 4/15/22 ARK raised its 5-year target on Tesla to $4,600 (1,533 post-split). The stock is down 49%. 1/
On 11/24/22 @CathieDWood predicted, on national TV, that ARKK would earn a 40% annual return over 5 years. The ETF is down 67%.

On 4/12/22, again on national TV, ARKK increased its 5-yr return expectation to 50%, suggesting a 659% or 7.6x gain. The ETF is down 41%. 2/
To hit the expected return, the $ARKK ETF must now earn 77.5% per year, a 12.9x or 1,187% cumulative gain in less than 4.5 years.

Today, again on national TV, the CEO predicted Bitcoin, which she owns, would trade for $1 million by 2030, a 67.5% a year 61.9x gain. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 12
Charles Ponzi and Bernie Madoff are smiling. Nobody should be surprised at multi-billion dollar holes in balance sheets and “missing” assets. Truth: An attestation is NOT an audit. It is a point in time measurement. Don’t believe it? Listen to Tether’s attestation accountant: 1/
The accounting firm makes clear that they are engaged solely to attest for the existence of assets and liabilities on ONE DATE as compared to the prior attestation date. Not a day before. Not two days before. No income statement. No cash flow statement. No trade blotter. 2/
Crypto exchanges are collapsing. Collateral is non-existent. None of these charlatans are willing to engage in a formal audit? Why? Should be obvious. We will start to do proof-of-reserves soon. SOON. Full transparency. Right. Proving liabilities are knowable, assets are not. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 6
Berkshire Hathaway released its 3Q 10-Q and earnings release this morning. In what was a very quiet quarter on the capital allocation front, there are a number of interesting developments in the filing and particularly the MD&A. A few comments on the quarter and developments. 1/
Typical of Berkshire’s earnings, profits are reported by observers with little understanding of the underlying economics of the company. Headline reported GAAP profit for the quarter shows losses of $10.4 billion for the quarter and $50.0 billion for the first nine months. 2/
Reported profit now includes market value changes in BRK’s equity and fixed holdings and reported values of derivatives net of deferred tax. Stripping realized/unrealized gains/losses logically allows an assessment of operating earnings including interest and dividend income. 3/
Read 50 tweets
Oct 29
Twitter departed the world of public companies just shy of its 9th birthday. To the question of who won and who lost, the answer should be obvious. From a start of $45 on 11/7/13 to Elon's buy this week at $54.20, the shareholder made 20.4%. That's cumulative. 2.1% per year. 1/
Over the same stretch, the S&P 500 earned 157.4%, 11.1% per year. While revenues at Twitter grew from $665 million at year-end 2013 (post-IPO) to an annual run rate of $5.2 billion at 6/30, an impressive 26% per year, expenses exceeded revenues in 7 out of 9 years. Losses. 2/ Image
Cumulatively Twitter lost $771m but did produce positive $6.5B in cumulative cash from operations. Impressive, until considering a mind-boggling $5.2B in "non-cash" share-based comp as most of that, the always pesky SBC that CEOs/CFOs insist investors ignore. Adjusted EBITDA. 3/
Read 19 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!