Thread by @sambendett

1/ QUICK THREAD on the Russian military trying to learn from past attacks to defend Crimea from Ukrainian drone strikes. Main points below on the December 23-24 drone strike with Mugin-5 commercial drones in Ukraine;' service.

2/ According to Russian sources, "seven Chinese-made Mugin-5 commercial drones took off at 19.30-20.00 on December 23 from Odessa airport and headed for the Crimea at predetermined coordinates."

3/ "After a couple of hours, they approached the peninsula from the Bakalskaya Spit in the Razdolnensky district. Five of these drones were shot down by S-300 anti-aircraft missile system and the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile system over the waters of the Karkinitsky Gulf."

4/ "The other two drones went along the previously established route, which made it possible for them to avoid the impact of Russian electronic warfare to some extent: one flew towards Dzhankoy, the other towards Simferopol."

5/ "In the end, both remaining Mugin-5 drones were shot down around 01.00 - 02.00 on December 24. One was downed when trying to hit the oil depot near Nizhnegorsky, and the second intended to hit the Tavricheskaya TPP near the Crimea administrative center." Map below.

6/ "What's the result? Crimean air defense units took into account the previous experience with Ukraine's drone strikes in order to prepare for the next wave: none of the drones reached their goal."

7/ "This took place despite this attack lacking a major characteristic of previous attempts - there were no NATO reconnaissance planes or UAVs near by, since the presence of Global Hawk or RC-135 was too obvious and Ukraine tried to use the element of surprise."

8/ "At the same time, it is still possible to use Bayraktar TB2 drones from Odessa to track the actions of Russian air defense systems. The cameras installed on the TB2 make it possible to conduct reconnaissance at a great distance, such as over Snake Island this summer."

9/ "The use of UAVs has expanded significantly with the beginning of the war. Now, in addition to military aerial vehicles, commercial UAVs are also actively used, equipped with the DIY weapons."

10/ "Such a (commercial) reconnaissance-strike tool has great potential due to its extremely low price, ease of maintenance and a high-quality camera. The Ukraine military uses dozens of them almost every day, without really worrying about (such drone) losses."

11/ "The cost of one Mugin-5 UAV, which is freely available, does not exceed $10,000, which is much less than the cost of manufacturing anti-aircraft missiles for modern air defense systems." (muginuav.com/product/mugin-…)

12/ According to this Russian analysis, "...the Ukrainian military will continue to attempt strikes on the Crimea using these simple but dangerous UAV systems. At the same time, there will be changes to the tactics, quantity, and nature of such drone strikes".

13/ In fact, Russian government of Crimea stated earlier that the "main threat to Russian forces (on the peninsula) comes from Ukrainian drones," highlighting that Ukrainian tactics have a lasting military and psychological effect. taskandpurpose.com/news/ukrainian…