1/ QUICK THREAD on the Ukrainian thoughts about future combat technologies. Main translated points below: "There is a current trend to improve the effectiveness of FPV drones by increasing their flight range and weight of the transported munition." focus.ua/opinions/65741… 2/ "But this automatically leads to an increase in the drone size and its visibility, which makes it more vulnerable to CUAS. However, these are the conditions of positional battles, dictated by current tactics. But the strategic drone development..."

1/ Last year, Russian MOD tried to promote the "Sibiryachok" combat quadcopter made by one of its defense companies - the military users noted its poor quality, lambasting it on social media (below). This drone is back - recent uses point to continued bad quality (it crashed).

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1667642923515518976

2/ Many reviews are downright brutal, with Russian solders not holding back expletives to describe it, and some are saying they are not using it altogether due to its poor quality. t.me/mil_hub/61207

1/ QUICK TAKE on the Russian comments about best and worst CUAS practices in the war so far - main translated points below: "Defense always loses to offense, and this applies to drones and electronic warfare. Frequencies change, new firmware and new solutions appear." 2/ "For example, now UAVs are flying higher than before, and they are difficult to land. Countering drones is always reactive, not proactive. In terms of counteraction, the future lies with kinetic methods of destruction."

1/ QUICK THREAD: What is the role of combat UGVs at this point in the Ukraine war? I recently authored an article on the Russian combat UGV developments for the European Security and Defense magazine. Main points below from the text: euro-sd.com/2024/06/articl… 2/ The article is meant as a snapshot in time - to show what are the main UGV trends in the war by May 2024. Prior to its ill-fated invasion, Russian defense R&D worked on multiple UGV projects - but they were built in few numbers and tested in mostly...

1/ QUICK TAKE on more pessimism about Russian FPV/quadcopter development efforts and use at the front from Project Archangel (see posts embedded in this thread): "What do Ukrainians have? (compared to us) Increases the number of pilots and drones; moreover..."

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1801987499444564377

2/ "...Ukrainian forces are establishing a connection between UAVs, communications and electronic warfare; they have a unified management system, applied tactics and gains from experience; and they strive to get maximum effect on the battlefield from using cheap weapons."

1/ QUICK TAKE on the comments made by Mikhail Filipov, the founder of Russia's "Project Archangel" volunteer effort, on the drone war in Ukraine: "Even before the (invasion), Ukraine was doing very well with UAVs." 2/ "They work with UAVs systematically, and understand very well that drones are a cheap way to win a war. We realized this later on as well. That’s why we created our own schools, where we train drone operators, who, after completing the training..."

1/ THREAD on the Russian perceptions about FPV use and availability, and on their own capacity to meet the demand, translated from several Russian Telegram channels: "The ratio of UAVs at the front is now approximately 1 to 6 - not in our favor...." 2/ " And thats "approximately" - perhaps more, but definitely not less, and the current tendency will widen this gap - all because of the clumsiness and slowness of our Russian bureaucratic machine. In Ukraine, all small NGOs and private garage workshops have been..."

1/ QUICK TAKE on the competing Russian volunteer meetups for drone/EW developers. In 2022 and 2023, I highlighted a "Dronnitsa" event organized by the Coordination Center for Assistance to Novorossiya (KCPN), an effort based in Russia-controlled Donbas:

https://x.com/sambendett/status/1674765199679561729

2/ The main point behind "Dronnitsa" was to bring together drone/UAV developers, Russian military users, volunteer groups and tech start ups for a lessons learned from the war, to showcase tech and discuss the way forward. Here is more info:

https://x.com/sambendett/status/1697236313013985505

1/ QUICK TAKE - Russians are worried that Ukrainian military is targeting their fixed-wing ISR drones: "This is an extremely alarming development. While people do not directly die from such actions, the consequences may be more serious than from the delivery of dozens of Abrams (tanks)." 2/ "Many units/actions depend on such ISR drones (Zala, Supercam, Orlan). Destroying our "eyes" in the sky will set us back a generation, forcing us to fight in 2D while the enemy continues to wage war in 3D. FPV drones are cheap, but big ISR UAVs are not."

1/ QUICK TAKE on a Russian deliberation about the UAV/drone evolution influenced by the war in Ukraine - main points below: "The (Ukraine war) became a triumph for small UAVs. Previously, everyone was afraid of Bayraktars, but now everyone hides when FPV drones appear." t.me/bayraktar1070/… 2/ "Modern air defense systems have made low-speed, medium-altitude UAVs practically useless. Evolution has turned the Bayraktar drones from a superweapon into an expensive reconnaissance aircraft. (Smaller) fixed-wing, “Baba Yagas” and FPV drones currently rule the battlefield."

1/ QUICK TAKE from Russia's Project Archangel volunteer effort on the impact of Ukrainian drones on Russian advances and tactics - quick translation as follows: "How are things now? Frankly, they suck. From October'23 to today, the Ukrainian forces have been slowing down and stopping our offensives in one area or another with..." t.me/projectArchang…
2/ "...the help of special (separate) UAV detachments - representatives of the Ukrainian forces. There were initially 10 such detachments operating near Avdiivka. In addition to maneuvering combined arms reserves, the Ukrainian command also maneuvers these detachments."

1/ QUICK TAKE on the Russian comments about an FPV striking a Ukrainian USV - quick translation below from the "Russian Engineer" Telegram channel: "...considering that the USV does not see the incoming drone and it does not have onboard EW..." t.me/rusengineer/40…
2/ "...it is possible to use FPV drones with the simplest standard frequencies. You just need to have two sets, a night one with thermal cameras and a day one with regular cameras. And then we have the final scheme for countering USVs..."

1/ One of the more relevant relationships to watch in the coming months will be between the incoming Defense Minister Belousov, the re-appointed Prime Minister Mishustin, Deputy Prime Minister Chernyshenko and the Minister of Digital Development Shadaev. All four are...

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1789753655727370685

2/ ...part of Russia's efforts to develop domestic high-tech ecosystem in the larger sense - Mishustin as a government bureaucrat with ICT background, Belousov as high-tech researcher at the Soviet and later Russian Academy of Sciences and a minister who promoted UAV/drone...

1/ QUICK TAKE on Putin's statements made today, on Mya 9, in a meeting with Russian military officers who are commanding units in Ukraine. Normally, I would do a quick thread about the annual Russian military parade in Moscow - but this year, there as nothing interesting there. 2/ Rather, this thread is about statements made AT a meeting with Putin. Colonel Malakhov, commander of the 24th Separate Guards Special Forces Brigade, said that Russian forces have been actively using FPV drones on the battlefield for more than a year.

1/ THREAD - Over the past several months, I was working on a public report on the latest Russian #AI developments - it is now published with @CNASdc. Do check it out! Below are main points and takeaways. cnas.org/publications/r… 2/ The report is meant as a summary of the latest developments through March 2024, and should serve as a reference document for anyone interested in major Russian thoughts and deliberations on #AI in the military domain. The data is based on public sources and major Russian...

1/ QUICK TAKE on Russia's Courier light combat and logistics UGV. This is a self-initiated project headed by Boris Rozhin (Colonel Cassad on Telegram), and a basic Courier UGV platform costs around 1 million rubles, or $11K. t.me/boris_rozhin/1…
2/ According to Rozhin: "With mass-scale production, further cost reduction is possible. Anything can be installed on it - from stretchers for the wounded and gratings/trays for transporting goods to EW systems, mines, machine guns, grenade launchers, ATGMs and AGS. The UGV is designed for a modular principle of use."

1/ QUICK TAKE on a Russian volunteer's analysis of where Russian "People's VPK (Defense-Industrial Complex)" is lagging behind Ukraine's civil society efforts to help the military. The translation is from a pro-Russian TG channel - usual caveats apply. Main points below.

2/ "We are not losing when it come to the quality of (our tech) solutions. Our inventors... are generally better than the enemy's. Not much better - the enemy’s are also quite good... but our side...has more engineering and creative talent."

1/ QUICK TAKE - Russia’s Dmitry Rogozin is commenting on the new Ukrainian “Baba Yaga” heavy drone development. Usual caveats apply, since it’s a former Russian government official. Quick translation in the posts below.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1780673369605607890

2/ “Over the past 24 hours, the enemy has deployed “silent” Baba Yaga attack drones. This is no longer a conversion of an agricultural drone into a combat one, but a separate type of heavy multirotor UAV with electric motors and a powerful battery to increase its range.”

1/ QUICK TAKE on the Russian perceptions of a Ukrainian advantage in FPV drones: “An analysis of battlefield shows that the enemy is many times superior to the Russian military in the FPV use. At the same time, the Ukrainians have an increased FPV range - up to 30 km - due to the installment of repeaters on hexacopters (“Baba Yaga”) and fixed-wing UAVs.” 2/ “In the Kherson region, the enemy drones prevent an effective assault on the village of Krynki, where active operations resumed the day before. Electronic warfare systems supplied to the Russian military are not always able to cope with frequencies.” t.me/uav_tech/26736

1/ QUICK TAKE - Russia’s Dmitry Rogozin (former head of Roskosmos and self-styled mil-tech volunteer) sounds impressed and concerned with Ukrainian drones: “They fly in entire squadrons consisting of pairs of heavy Baba Yaga attack UAVs - each drone carries up to 6 munitions and is extremely dangerous.” 2/ “An FPV is flying next to "Baba Yaga", but it is not a kamikaze drone, but a reusable one. This type of drone is capable of diving onto a target and dropping ammo on it - like an unmanned Junkers bomber.”

1/ QUICK TAKE: Appreciate the thread by @WarintheFuture yesterday that highlighted key points in current and future combat UGV development that we can discern form this video. Would like to add the following points as well. Firsts, what we are witnessing is a rapid... 2/ ...proliferation of smaller, lighter combat and logistics UGVs across the front at this point in the war, with many coming from DIY-type projects by soldiers themselves and different volunteer organizations supporting the war effort. These are less simple designs that can be quickly put together.