In today's #vatnik soup I'll theorize what's happening with Twitter after Elon took over. As with all social media platforms, Twitter's algorithm is their best-kept secret and there is very little public information available on it.
1/14
Like other social media algorithms, Twitter's is probably powered by a machine learning (ML) components which means that it's constantly changing its behavior. It gets "training data" from the 900 million daily tweets posted on the platform.
2/14
Social media ML algorithms are extremely complex, and engineers from Google and Facebook have said that they sometimes have hard time understanding their own ML algorithms:
I very much doubt that this will happen - there are two elements that make a social media platform successful:
4/14
1) its algorithm, and 2) critical mass to make the platform lively.
So how does Twitter prioritize content? Instead of ordering tweets chronologically, it shows tweets dynamically based on various factors - who do you follow, whose tweets you've been reading, etc.
5/14
If you read some of Max Blumenthal's or Lauren Boebert's tweets out of curiosity, Twitter may show you more of this type of content. It of course prioritizes tweets from people you follow, but sometimes it makes these "detours" that change your Twitter feed.
6/14
Now, a bit of theorizing: I think that the algorithm was changed after the Russian invasion so that it would prioritize Ukraine-related content. This content was seen more often, gained more exposure, likes, re-tweets, etc.
7/14
This theory is supported by my own data, showing that engagement dropped by around 40%. This phenomenon was also supported by other, much more popular people:
I would also imagine that some more strict rules for prioritizing content related to COVID-19 were integrated during the first year of the pandemic. This was - based on my theory - done to control the spread of disinformation related to the pandemic.
9/14
So, I don't believe that Twitter started suppressing Ukraine-related content, but removed its prioritization instead.
Also, I don't think the Twitter Blue does anything yet, as Julia Davis, who saw a drastic drop in engagement, already has it.
10/14
Of course it's up to Twitter to decide if they want to boost specific type of content or not - as a private company they can "take sides" if they want as long as they follow the law.
One of the first promises of Elon was to get rid of Twitter's bots ...
11/14
... but the problem is not the bots, but the organic troll farms. Actual people are propagating and spreading state- and corporation-sponsored areas en masse, and these troll armies use brigading, spamming and spreading of disinformation as their weapons.
12/14
In one of my earlier soups I predicted that disinformation will spread faster and wider with the changes that Musk has made. I think that the more recent changes and Elon's tweets reinforce this prediction. Many known disinfo spreaders have also been reinstated on Twitter.
13/14
Elon hasn't made any comments about troll farms either, probably because it's such a huge problem that it's almost impossible to tackle.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll discuss the Wagner Group, its founders Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, and the mutiny they started on 23 Jun 2023. The event marked the climax of the Wagner Group–Russian MoD conflict, and finally led to the deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin.
1/22
Wagner has been used in many conflicts around the world, but they came to global prominence during the war in Donbas in 2014-2015. Wagnerites helped the Donbas separatists fight against the Ukrainians during the conflict, which helped Putin to “outsource” the insurrection.
2/22
The group doesn’t have any central ideology, but many of its members and leaders have ties to various neo—Nazi movements in Russia. For example, Wagner leader Dmitry Utkin had several Nazi symbols tattooed on his body. Neo—nazi group Rusich has also fights as part of Wagner.
3/22
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce an Amsterdam-based propaganda channel, Bonanza Media (@bonanzamedia2). It’s best-known for producing & spreading online pro-Kremlin propaganda videos while closely coordinating & collaborating with the Russian intelligence agency GRU.
1/19
Russian intelligence has been extremely active in the Netherlands for a long time. For example in 2018, four GRU agents were caught while trying to hack into OPCW,an organization that monitors the use of chemical weapons. In addition, the International Criminal Court (ICC)…
2/19
…and the MH17 investigation have become targets for the Russian intelligence and propaganda operations. These operations are often complemented with “investigative journalism” media outlets, that often echo the Kremlin’s propaganda and disinformation.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll talk about the recent EU elections and what are their implications for both the Kremlin and Ukraine. Right-wing political parties, some pro-Kremlin, won a lot of seats around Europe, and this result can also change the EU’s stance on Ukraine.
1/19
But before we start, I want to promote a truck fundraiser I'm doing together with the fantastic @ArturRehi and @69thSB.
Our goal is 20 000 USD, and you can contribute to this important fundraiser here:
EU’s support of Ukraine is essential for their survival against genocidal Russia. So far,this support has been delayed mostly by Orban’s Hungary (& to some degree, Fico’s Slovakia). Now, this support will probably be challenged by many new members of the European Parliament.
3/19
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll discuss a specific propaganda/disinformation that the Kremlin likes to use – antisemitism. I also talk about how the Russian society itself has become riddled with antisemitism & how this has led to a decrease in Jewish population in the country.
1/19
Russian antisemitism works on many levels, and their narratives vary depending whether they’re targeting a local audience or people in Europe and the US. For example for the latter, Russia attempts to create a false narrative of Ukraine being an antisemitic “Nazi state”.
2/19
But before diving deeper, let’s look at a survey data of Russians in 2023: Nearly 30 million Russians harbour antisemitic attitudes, and 15% of those surveyed believed that “Jews were responsible for most of the world’s wars.” 38% think that the Jews have...
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce a Ukrainian media personality and propagandist, Diana Panchenko (@Panchenko_X). She’s best-known for betraying her own country by peddling anti-Zelenskyy and anti-Ukraine propaganda and disinformation for the Kremlin.
1/22
Panchenko was born in 1988 in the Mykolaev Oblast in Ukrainian SSR in 1988. She studied publishing and editing at the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute and later graduated from Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv with a degree in law.
2/22
After graduating, Diana worked briefly for the news site . Between 2010 and 2015, Panchenko was a presenter for KyivTV, but she found her true calling as a pro-Kremlin propagandist after she was hired by a national “news channel” called NewsOne.