This will be an analytical thread🧵on the recapitalizing the PSU (Ukrainian Air Force) S-300 surface to air missile (SAM) force, AKA The Great HAWK Round Up.
Western efforts to date have been inadequate, even with the NASAM & the latest Patriot delivery started by the Biden
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Western efforts to date have been inadequate, even with the NASAM & the latest Patriot delivery started by the Biden
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...Administration.
To fully recapitalise this PSU SAM force of initially 30 batteries of S-300PT/PS in 2014 (those in Crimea were captured by Russia) will require a further 20+ batteries of NASAMS and Iris T with some Patriot back stop for the ATBM role.
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To fully recapitalise this PSU SAM force of initially 30 batteries of S-300PT/PS in 2014 (those in Crimea were captured by Russia) will require a further 20+ batteries of NASAMS and Iris T with some Patriot back stop for the ATBM role.
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The issue is the Western Allies do not have that many SAM batteries available in their current inventories, nor the ability to produce more quickly.
To date, Poland has provided one or more batteries of S-125/SA-3 Goa, the Spanish have provided ~2 batteries of Aspid,
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To date, Poland has provided one or more batteries of S-125/SA-3 Goa, the Spanish have provided ~2 batteries of Aspid,
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...Germany has provided an IRIS-T battery, the US & Norway have put together a NASAM battery, France is providing a SAMP/T battery and there are rumors of one or two MIM-23 I-Hawk batteries from Nordic countries, plus the announced US Patriot battery.**
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** It is unclear to me exactly how many Patriot launchers & radar systems are being sent. Less than a full battalion is a certainty.
Italy is thinking about providing Ukraine with a SAM battery but has actually just sold one to Pakistan.
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Italy is thinking about providing Ukraine with a SAM battery but has actually just sold one to Pakistan.
https://twitter.com/as2022sa1998/status/1606573815315980293
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That works out to about ~nine SAM batteries.
The bottom line up front is Ukraine is running out of the 5V55 missiles for its S-300/SA-10 Grumble batteries and cannot make more.
Ukraine desperately needs 20 more SAM batteries to protect its power &
ausairpower.net/APA-Grumble-Ga…
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The bottom line up front is Ukraine is running out of the 5V55 missiles for its S-300/SA-10 Grumble batteries and cannot make more.
Ukraine desperately needs 20 more SAM batteries to protect its power &
ausairpower.net/APA-Grumble-Ga…
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...other civil infrastructure from further cruise missile strikes by Russia.
While NASAM is the "perfect answer" because of the launcher's ability to draw on 20 years worth of AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missile production sitting in NATO air force stocks.
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While NASAM is the "perfect answer" because of the launcher's ability to draw on 20 years worth of AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missile production sitting in NATO air force stocks.
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Ukraine needs "Good Enough Right Now," not "Perfect (NASAM) Next Year."
This is where the humble 1990s MIM-23 I-Hawk may have to be used as a stop-gap capability for defeating low flying cruise missiles and older Russian tactical jets w/o jammer pods.
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This is where the humble 1990s MIM-23 I-Hawk may have to be used as a stop-gap capability for defeating low flying cruise missiles and older Russian tactical jets w/o jammer pods.
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The Cold War era MIM-23 I-Hawk was the closest thing to a NATO standard SAM as could be found. Batteries were established behind the inter-German border ~50 km apart for a "SAM Belt" denying low level to stratospheric air space to Warsaw Pact jets.
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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-23_Ha…
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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-23_Ha…
It costs a lot of money elected legislators don't want to spend to decommission a HAWK missile.
So hundreds, if not thousands should still be in containers European NATO nations and US non-NATO allies & client states for transfer to Ukraine.
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So hundreds, if not thousands should still be in containers European NATO nations and US non-NATO allies & client states for transfer to Ukraine.
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Low flying cruise missiles don't have human pilots capable of reacting to threats, or electronic warfare systems that can jam radars or drop flares & Chaff.
They are target drones for most missiles whose threat comes from either
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They are target drones for most missiles whose threat comes from either
https://twitter.com/AdamekMiroslav/status/1606620042057371648
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...saturation or evasive routing versus know radar locations.
Even an Igla shoulder fired SAM can take one out of properly alerted by Ukrainian Uber-like software on computer tablets connected to cell phone networks.
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Even an Igla shoulder fired SAM can take one out of properly alerted by Ukrainian Uber-like software on computer tablets connected to cell phone networks.
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https://twitter.com/KillyWarwick/status/1604894433408782336
The problem here is radar line of site.
You need a radar every 50 km to beat the curvature of the earth, even in very flat plains.
And terrain isn't always flat.
See below.
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You need a radar every 50 km to beat the curvature of the earth, even in very flat plains.
And terrain isn't always flat.
See below.
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1607754752993165313
The problem is Ukraine is huge - the size of Texas in terms of square hectares.
Ukraine needs those 20 HAWK batteries to draw enough of those 50 km diameter circles to cover it's power grid & other civil infrastructure from Russian cruise missile strikes.
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Ukraine needs those 20 HAWK batteries to draw enough of those 50 km diameter circles to cover it's power grid & other civil infrastructure from Russian cruise missile strikes.
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Gathering enough HAWK batteries from around the world - regardless of their configuration - is something only a team of the Biden Administration's Defense & State Departments can do.
It can be done in weeks, if the Biden Administration has the wit and will to do so.
15/15 End
It can be done in weeks, if the Biden Administration has the wit and will to do so.
15/15 End
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