Thread by @dgurdasani1

Now that we're getting to the end of the year, it's worth looking at the toll of the 'mild & acceptable' illness that COVID is hailed as by many. Here's a thread of measurable toll in the UK in 2022 since omicron - considered the 'mild' variant of COVID spread. 🧵

So let's first look at the only measure the govt seems interested in- deaths. We've been told that COVID no longer causes much severe disease, which is why no real mitigations have been put in place- hence 'living with it'.. so what has the death toll been in England?

As per the ONS - ~32,000 deaths up to the wk ending 9th December (so incomplete data). And no, before anyone misunderstands, these are deaths *from* COVID NOT with COVID - in that COVID is mentioned as the cause of death or contributor to death on the death certificate.

COVID remains a leading infectious cause of death, with deaths from COVID-19 just lower than those from influenza *and* pneumonia (which includes multiple infectious causes of pneumonia, not just the flu) - so comparing SARS2 with multiple pathogens

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1606220980623384576?s=20&t=GbxlBkQ5spiiP7WzptfmBA

Of course, none of this actually measures the long-term effects of COVID (so deaths from post-COVID sequelae such as clotting, heart disease, strokes etc.). If we want to get some idea of the impact of COVID- both long term and indirect on healthcare- let's look at excess deaths

Generally, excess deaths have measured between 500-1000 excess deaths/wk since April '22 - with this continuing through November, with substantial excesses of deaths seen at home. Increases in deaths from cardiovascular, respiratory and heart disease.

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1606220976651378689?s=20&t=GbxlBkQ5spiiP7WzptfmBA

There have been a 37,000 increase in cumulative excess deaths observed since 2022. Not all of this is attributable directly to COVID &this is despite the *negative* excess at the beginning of 2022, which was almost certainly due to reduction in airborne illness due to mitigations

There's little doubt that at least some of the excess manifesting as an increase in deaths at home, and across all age groups will be post-COVID sequelae, while some may well be delays in access to healthcare also related to pressures on the NHS (from COVID & others).

Moving from mortality to healthcare. England is now in the 5th wave of COVID - with hospitalisations rising again exponentially again, at the same time winter pressures from other respiratory illnesses are seen.

It's interested how some in the MSM assured us (with zero evidence) there wouldn't be a Christmas wave. If only there were any accountability at all for being wrong repeatedly (@sarahknapton) I guess they're just doing their bit to normalise death & destruction of the NHS.

In fact not only have hospitalisations been high, the ONS data shows that almost at no point during the year did infection rates dip below 1 in 70. So extremely high infection rates, even between peaks - with impacts obviously seen in long COVID, and work/school absences.

So what's the long COVID toll that's been measured (different form post-COVID complications which are not being measured, and we can only get some idea from excess deaths).

It's estimated that there are 2.2 million people in the community in the UK with long COVID lasting 28 days or more, of whom more than half were infected over a yr ago, and more than a quarter were infected 2 yrs ago. Is this the full toll of long COVID?

No, not at all. This is only the estimated current *prevalence* of COVID, and does not include those who had long COVID which has resolved at some point during the past 3 yrs. So the actual *incidence* of COVID and the impact of it is no doubt far greater.

So what has been the cumulative increase in long COVID prevalence since 2022 started. Of those who have long COVID now, it's estimated that a third developed (764,000 (35%)) developed this sometime during the omicron wave. Again, the *incidence* in 2022 is much greater than this.

In fact ONS long COVID numbers have gone up by a million between 2021 and 2022. Some of those have had resolved symptoms after a period but for many who were infected with omicron (>700,000) symptoms appear to be persistent currently.

What about impact on education, schools, economy and our workforce in general. Hard to know the full impact but the ONS reports that 4.5% of education staff and between 5-6.5% of health and social care workers report long COVID symptoms for 4 wks or more.

The ONS reports that half a million more people are out of work because of long-term illness (in summer 2022 compared to 2019). There's little doubt that at least some of this will be attributable to COVID directly or indirectly.

ons.gov.uk/employmentandl…

The Bank of England has warned about the impact of long-term illness on the economy - which is facing multiple challenges - from long COVID, Brexit, and the cost of living crisis with an incompetent government that is making it worse. Continuing SARS2 spread isn't going to help.

School absences have been high throughout 2022 especially during surges- despite the DfE stopping attributing absences to COVID, it's clear that surges in absences correlate closely COVID waves.

E.g. the recent DfE attendance report shows 11% absence, attributed increases to 'seasonal respiratory illnesses'. Looking at the ONS data on COVID spread, once again shows clear spread through secondary school age children after half-term to other age groups in the current wave.

The wave seems to have peaked in children before other age groups, where there are increases still being seen. A similar pattern to what we've seen during multiple waves.

So, in summary - measurable impact of COVID has been >30K deaths from COVID-19, and even more excess deaths (from sequelae + indirect impacts on healthcare) + ~1 million more people living with long COVID + economic disruption + disruption to healthcare & education

Of course, these impacts haven't been felt equally- they've been felt most among the most disadvantaged, the disabled, the clinically vulnerable, ethnic minorities, and those in high-risk occupations (education, social care, healthcare).

People can judge for themselves if they feel these impacts are an 'acceptable' cost of not putting in the effort to mitigate airborne diseases & lack of provision of clean air in workplaces, businesses, and schools. My view is that this is utterly unacceptable.

Would like to acknowledge the huge role MSM & some 'experts' have played in normalising this - without your influence so many deaths and so much chronic illness couldn't have been normalised & the NHS might still have existed in some salvageable form. Congrats.