Thread by @gilgildner

Economic predictions for 2023: it’s going to be a wild ride.

Sometimes I suspect marketers have a backstage look at what’s about to happen. Companies scale marketing before anything else. So here’s my (ignorant) take on how this will affect the digital industry.

#ppcchat

First off, we’re ALREADY in a recession. Automotive market is going to crash (increasing repos, used prices are dipping). Housing market has been declining for 10 months straight, limited inventory has propped up prices but I think those will crash as soon as spring hits.

For marketers — ad spend is going to contract (…IS contracting, for anyone who has paid attention lately). The fat will be trimmed. And only the most efficient and profitable channels will be kept. How will this affect agencies, freelancers, in-house marketers? Here’s how:

We’re seeing midsize and large agencies struggle to retain talent. There’s not enough margin to support increased salaries, overhead, inflation. There’s often not enough cashflow to weather the loss of even a single whale client.

Waves of layoffs WILL happen at large agencies and in-house corporate marketing departments. Weak agencies WILL die. Struggling freelancers WILL leave the industry.

(Not trying to be insensitive, but I just think a lot of folks are not prepared for what’s about to hit).

The work, fortunately, still needs to be done. It will trickle down to established freelancers and efficient small or midsize agencies.

If you’re not established, aren’t constantly acquiring new prospects, or have high overhead, it’s going to be rough.

Here’s what you, as an agency owner/freelance marketer, have to do to survive 2023:

A) Make sure you have enough cash on hand for several months of payroll. We’re shooting for 12 mo.
B) Make sure you have cashflow to withstand 50% loss of revenue.
C) Don’t cheapen. Go UPMARKET.