Dr Zoë Hyde Profile picture
Dec 28 14 tweets 4 min read
China’s decision to not just abandon zero COVID but to embrace an extreme “let it rip” policy is a catastrophe for both the Chinese people and the world. It will leave millions dead or disabled, badly damage the global economy, and may spawn dangerous new coronavirus variants. 🧵
The scale of the disaster is hard to imagine. There are an estimated 1,000,000 new infections and 5,000 deaths each day.

Not that you'd know this from the official statistics, which are no longer reported daily. The official death toll stands at 5,242.
dw.com/en/china-stops…
The huge number of infections is reflected in the fact that China is exporting COVID-19 cases again. And not just exporting a few, either.
Crematoriums are overloaded with the dead.

"“We have to do this about 200 times a day now,” said one funeral worker. “We are so busy we don’t even have time to eat. This has been the case since the opening up. Before it was around 30-50 a day.”"
reuters.com/world/china/ch…
Modelling by The Economist predicts 1.5 million deaths in China.
economist.com/china/2022/12/…
The final death toll may well be higher, because mortality from COVID-19 rises when hospitals are overloaded.

At the beginning of the pandemic, mortality in Wuhan was estimated to be 3 times higher than in the rest of Hubei province.
And hospitals are overloaded & healthcare workers ill.
"One nurse in the western city of Xian said 45 of 51 nurses in her department and all staff in the emergency department had caught the virus ... they had been told to work even if they tested positive"
abc.net.au/news/2022-12-2…
Economic activity has fallen off a cliff. People can't work if they're sick.

"The boss of a printed circuit board factory in the eastern province of Shandong said only 20 per cent of staff came to work on Friday, the rest calling in sick with Covid."
ft.com/content/598c81…
It's worth remembering just how much the world is dependent on Chinese manufacturing. Among other things, China produces about half of the world's supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients - the raw ingredients for the medications we take for granted.
I've criticised China's draconian approach to zero COVID. Democratic Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, or New Zealand were better models. But China's decision to pursue elimination was the right one.

People who clamoured for zero COVID to end are in for a very rude awakening.
I really feel for the Chinese people, who've been conned into believing that SARS-CoV-2 is now a "mild" virus, akin to the common cold. Many seem to think they'll get it once, and then everything will go back to normal. The reality is that endless waves & reinfections await them.
You can't expect 1.4 billion people - nearly one-fifth of the Earth's human population - to be infected and not cook up a few new variants.
And there are threats to consider beyond the relatively straightforward variants of SARS-CoV-2 that we’ve experienced to date. There's the possibility of rare, but serious recombination events involving other viruses.

MERS is unlikely in China, but...
China is home to many other SARS-related viruses. Occasionally these cross the species barrier and infect humans, but without onward transmission.

As @georgimarinov points out, the likelihood of further transmission just got a boost.

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More from @DrZoeHyde

Dec 29
I've not commented on this study so far, because it's uncertain what the findings mean. But I've seen some commentary that's definitely wrong and causing a lot of unnecessary concern. Further study is needed, but here's why I don't think people should be worried. 🧵
First, this isn't a phenomenon specific to mRNA vaccines or even to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19.

It has been observed in combinations of whooping cough (pertussis), diphtheria, and tetanus vaccination.

These routine childhood vaccines are safe.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Second, this has nothing to do with IgG4-Related Disease, where IgG4 antibodies are thought to be an epiphenomenon. That is, they are an effect of the disease, not its cause.

IgG4 antibodies are associated with many things, including repeat infections.
hindawi.com/journals/ijr/2…
Read 7 tweets
Dec 28
A danger of giving up trying to control SARS-CoV-2 is that we increase the probability of a low likelihood but high impact event occurring. One such risk is recombination between SARS-CoV-2 & MERS. This could theoretically occur if someone were coinfected with these two viruses.
MERS has a case fatality rate of 36%, while SARS-CoV-2 is highly transmissible. A recombinant that shared some of these properties could potentially be catastrophic.

I stress this is only a theoretical risk, but scientists have warned of this possibility.
atlantis-press.com/journals/jegh/…
MERS hasn't gone away. According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 6 MERS cases were recorded in 2022. All occurred in the Middle East, all were primary cases, and all but one of the infected people reported contact with a camel.
ecdc.europa.eu/en/middle-east…
Read 4 tweets
Oct 22
An important new retrospective study of people who tested positive for COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada between the start of the pandemic and early 2021, has found that about 1% of these experience substantial post-infection morbidity. 🧵
cmaj.ca/content/194/40…
In early 2022, about 45% of Canadians had a recent SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The authors write that over the next year, about 1% of these people will likely be admitted to hospital roughly 1 week longer than those who didn’t have COVID-19.
They will use 6.6% of pre-pandemic hospital bed-days at a time when almost 20% of hospitals have already averaged more than 100% annual occupancy rates.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 21
A recent review into Australia’s response to COVID-19 contained some material on children and schools that is either wrong or misleading.

Notably, the review cited controversial research by one of the 47 original signatories to the notorious Great Barrington Declaration. #auspol
First, the review wrongly claims schools “were not high-transmission environments”.

But international data clearly show schools played an important role in amplifying the pandemic, if mitigation measures such as improved ventilation were not in place.
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
The review then makes a number of claims about COVID-19, children & schools in Sweden.

The first big problem is the key reference (92) covers only the first few months of the pandemic, up to & including June 2020.

What about the next 2 and a half years?
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 11 tweets
Jul 15
A recent re-analysis of 2 randomised trials conducted before the pandemic found that a carrageenan-containing nasal spray shortened the duration of common colds caused by the OC43 or 229E coronaviruses. 🧵
bpspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pr…
This is biologically plausible, because carrageenan (found in a type of red seaweed known as Irish Moss) has been shown to have antiviral properties in the laboratory - including against SARS-CoV-2.
A new randomised controlled trial suggests that a nitric oxide nasal spray may have similar antiviral properties.

In this study, 207 people who tested positive for COVID-19 were randomised to either a nitric oxide spray or placebo.
thelancet.com/journals/lanse…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 12
A study of the hepatitis cases seen in Israel reveals they were likely a delayed consequence of COVID-19.

The average delay was 74 days (range 21-130). This is almost certainly why we’ve mostly seen negative COVID-19 PCR tests in affected kids.

No adenovirus found in liver.🧵
The authors describe 5 children with hepatitis.

Four children previously had mild COVID-19, for which they tested positive by PCR at that time.

One child had a positive antibody test for SARS-CoV-2 during the hepatitis investigation, indicating previous asymptomatic COVID-19.
The cases were as follows:

3-month-old infant: COVID-19 in Feb 2021, hospitalised with liver failure 21 days later.

5-month-old infant: liver failure in May 2021, antibody positive for COVID-19.

8-year-old boy: COVID-19 in Dec 2020, hospitalised for hepatitis 130 days later.
Read 8 tweets

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