Thread by @JimCoventryNFL

#TNFonPrime #FantasyFootball start/sit player breakdown thread.

- The biggest factor in this game is that TEN will play a shell of the team that started the season.

-6 of their current defensive starters will not play. Among them, three top pass rushers and their best CB.

-On offense, none of the Week 1 stating OL will be on the field.

-They'll be without Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill.

- 2 main takeaways-

-The obvious one is that TEN is at a massive talent deficiency.

-The second one is that DAL knows that all of these players will be out. There is very real potential that they don't get mentally 'up' for the game.

-They also are coming off a huge win vs. PHI on a short week.

-If they don't 100% buy into the idea that PHI will lose their last two games, then they know they are locked into the No. 5 playoff seed.

-That would further lead to them not be mentally sharp.

-I personally think these factors will lead to a degree of letdown.

-That is opinion- we have no idea if that will happen.

-Now to what we might expect.

- Malik Willis hasn't been good. Obviously. In 3 games, his yards per pass attempt has been less than 5 (Tannehill was closer to 7 YPA)

-Although his pass ydg has gone up in each start 55>80>99, that's coincided with his PAs 10>16>23.

-He's at 4.77 yards per completion.

-He's rushed for 40>43 yds in his L2 gms with 1 TD.

-If he rushed for 70 yards and a TD, he'd actually be a viable superflex option.

-He had 15.3 FPTS LW.

- If DAL shows up and gets a big lead, he would have garbage time.

-If DAL doesn't show up, he could have production throughout.

-That said, only use him if desperate. But there is boom/bust potential.

-Hassan Haskins

-It helps the MLB Leighton Vander Esch is out.

- The only backup RB is Julius Chestnut.

-Haskins has 2 catches in each of his L2 games.

-The only game he was used much as a rusher was in Week 2 vs BUF, he went 9-37. The OL was better then.

-Regardless, we'd think he has to get 12-20 carries.

-And some targets.

-We should be able to conservatively project him for at least 40 yards and a couple catches.

-But volume could lead to him reaching 80 yards and maybe a TD.

-But due to the terrible OL and the fact we really haven't seen him play, he's risky.

-But if we're banking on DAL not showing up, the variables may not matter.

-He's best used as a volume-based flex in 12-team leagues.

-Those who are desperate at RB2 should consider him for volume.

Here are the WR/TE lines with Willis
-Woods 0/0, 2/12, 4/30
-Westbrook-Ikhine: 0/0, 0/0, 2/23
-Burks 0/0 (Week 2)
-Hooper 2/34, 2/33, 2/20
-Okonkwo 1/48, 4/54, 1/10

-What we learn here, is that Willis spreads the ball out.

-But most passes are very short.

-None of them has realistic upside.

-But the 2 with a chance to reach 10 PPR points would be Woods and Okonkwo.

-But every pass catcher has a horrible floor.

-For DAL, we'll frame all of these as if they'll mentally show up. They all have more downside if looking past this game.

-The only somewhat healthy group of defenders on TEN is 2 of their 3 DL.

- So they may be decent vs. the run. They were one of the best run Ds in the league

-Dak Prescott is unlikely to see much pass rush. And the TEN CBs are terrible.

-But DAL likely comes in balanced on offense. And if they run out to a lead, they may not throw for 4 quarters.

-I think he doesn't see a ton of attempts. I have him at 225 yards and 2 TDs.

-There is upside beyond that.

-Tony Pollard is supposed to be a true game time decision. That worries me.

-If he's barely close to playing and he's active, how much work do they give him?

-Because of that, I'd use him as a boom/bust flex in 12-team leagues.

-Ezekiel Elliott- I assume he gets 15-22 carries and rushes for 70-90 yards with a TD.

-CeeDee Lamb- I'm projecting 6/75/TD

-Michael Gallup 3/35.

- Noah Brown 2/17

-Dalton Schultz, 4/30/TD

-The remaining pass ydg spreads to RBs/backup TEs