The UK might be getting older on average, but some areas are getting younger.

The mean change in folk aged 18-30 across the country is -1.2%.

But against the national ageing tide, there's a ‘Benjamin Button’ group of local authorities.

And they are political stardust.

1/🧵
Firstly, some context. Let's take a look at London.

No other way of putting it - London is ageing.

Aside from Westminster (+0.2%), every single Borough is seeing a decrease in the relative size of its young population.

Including big drops in Newham (-6.0%) and Hounslow (-5.5%)
London is part of a wider pattern - the Great Ageing of English and Welsh metropoli.

Our largest cities are ageing faster than the national average:

Manchester (-4.3% aged 18-34 vs 2011)
Bradford (-2.0%)
Leeds (-1.8%)
Cardiff (-1.7%)
Birmingham (-1.6%)
Sheffield (-1.4%)
But what about that 'Benjamin Button' group?

Well, have a look at some of these names:

West Lancashire (+1.8% aged 18-30 vs 2011)
Bath and NE Somerset (+1.3%)
NW Leicestershire (+1.1%)
Harborough (+1.1%)
East Suffolk (+1.0%)
Maldon (+1.0%)
Guildford (+0.7%)
Winchester (+0.7%)
Now, here's where we come to the 'political stardust' bit.

In his original thread on the "red wall", @JamesKanag said "Around 80-90% of why certain seats vote for certain parties is explained by the demographics of the area".

Demography and geo-politics are endlessly intertwin
The political angle: while our most urban (Labour voting) areas are ageing, we're seeing real-term growth in young populations across many (Conservative voting) small cities, suburbs, and semi-rural areas.

Wholescale demographic changes in our two major parties' safest seats.
Younger folk are likelier to be more socially liberal, pro-immigration, have been hit harder by recent economic and cost of living crises, and to be in the most precarious employment and housing situations.

And so much more likely to vote Labour (or for a second-placed Lib Dem).
As I wrote for @ConHome, these numbers (+2% here, -2% there) might not seem like much, but they translate to thousands of people.

Take Winchester, for example. The latest Census population figure for the local authority is 127,500, having been reported at 116,595 in 2011.
The population aged 18-30 has increased in Winchester from 15.2% in 2011 to 16.0% in 2021.

That’s almost 2700 extra young voters now in and around Steve Brine’s constituency, with the Lib Dems just 985 votes behind in second place. Just seven years ago, that gap was 16,914 votes
Back to our 'Benjamin Button' list, and let's take a simpler focus on just the South East and East of England (I say "Blue", you say "Wall"!).

A sea of pale blue (decline) is interrupted by punches of dark blue (growth) to the south and north east of London.
Now, what do all those local authorities which have seen growth in their 18-30 year old populations have in common?

That's right - of the 42 MPs who represent constituencies within those council boundaries, exactly 42 of are Conservatives.

Yes - that's every single one of them.
Notable MPs representing areas shaded in dark blue on that map include Priti Patel (former Home Secretary), Michael Gove (current Secretary of State for Levelling Up), Kit Malthouse (once of Brexit compromise fame), and Caroline Nokes (Chair of the Women and Equalities Committee)
So, to bring it all together:

1) UK is ageing, but some areas are getting younger (the ‘Benjamin Buttons’)
2) Many such areas are suburban/small cities
3) They also invariably have Conservative MPs - newsflash, *Blue Wall*!
4) Young folk are very unlikely to vote Conservative
Is this a pandemic effect?

Doesn’t look like it - see the evidence in the thread below 👇

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More from @PME_Politics

Sep 29
🚨A thirty-theee point lead🚨

How did we get here? Is it real? Is it just a fluke?

What about the don’t knows, and potential response bias?

Here’s a thread covering all the technical goodies included in our bumper VI article here: yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…

1/ 🧵
Labour’s massive polling lead has three important sources:

➡️ Conservative 2019 voters switching directly to Labour
❓Conservative voters who now “don’t know” who they would vote for now
🔶 A squeeze on the Liberal Democrats
On the first - this is probably THE most important stat:

There are proportionally as many many Conservative voters switching to Labour now as there were on 1st May 1997.

17% of Conservative 2019 voters are now telling us they intend to vote Labour. It was 16% in 1997.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 28
Thread 🧵on fascinating UK Census population data released today and how it ties into British politics as we see it.

Firstly, a map of population change across England and Wales from 2011 to 2021.

Most areas have grown in population, but the most urban areas have grown fastest. Image
Local authorities with population densities above 30 people per square kilometre (top 12%) grew by an average of around 8% on 2022.

Those with densities below 1 (bottom 12%) grew by just 3%.

There was also fast growth in some semi-urban areas, particularly in the East and South
Why does this matter? People living (and moving into) urban areas tend to be younger, higher educated, and more liberal.

That in part explains how Labour have been able to rack up and keep huge majorities in urban areas while consistently losing elections since the last Census.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 10, 2021
Fresh @YouGov research by @SarahPrescottS and I looks at public opinion on climate spending.

The environment hit 40% in our 'most important issues' tracker this week, just three points behind the economy.

But what would Brits be willing to sacrifice for more climate investment?
In what's called a "conjoint experiment", we asked respondents to tell us if they would rather see government investment in 'the environment' or another randomised policy area.

The results suggest the public still sees the environment as a middle-order priority for investment.
While Brits would be happy to trade off spending on the environment against some areas such as defence and security, transport, and housing, government investment to combat climate change plays second fiddle to spending on health, the economy, and crime.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 30, 2021
Say hello again to the Blue Wall.

These are Conservative held constituencies which:
- Are estimated to have voted to Remain in 2016 (h/t @chrishanretty)
- Have 25%+ graduates in population
- Are in the South and East

And we’ve just polled them.

thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-…
What did we find?

1) High levels of dissatisfaction with government, Boris, and the direction the country is going in.
2) Tories down 8points on 2019, with a 6-point swing to Labour.
3) They would vote to rejoin the EU.
4) There’s still no culture war.

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
That swing to Labour (and slight swing to Lib Dems) means that 12 of the 53 Blue Wall seats would fall if an election were held tomorrow.

Then, depending on how you define the therm, another 3-5 are on an absolute ‘knife edge’.
Read 9 tweets
Jun 20, 2021
The Blue Wall.

What is it, and why should we care?

Well, by my reckoning, the 53-seat strong Blue Wall is a line of Conservatives-held constituencies in the South of England, stretching from Lewes to Stroud.

Plus a few 'islands' dotted across the South and East of England.
The definition I am working with is heavily based on work in Brexitland done by @ProfSobolewska and @robfordmancs:

- Voted to Remain in 2016 (according to @chrishanretty estimates)
- Have a higher than average (25%+) proportion of graduates
- Are in the South or East of England
The Blue Wall is the flipside of the Red Wall coin.

Just as many North/Midlands seats which have traditionally voted Labour are now moving to the Conservatives as the great Brexit realignment rumbles on, many seats are slowly moving away from the Tories in the South and East.
Read 9 tweets
Jun 18, 2021
Alrighty, Chesham and Amersham!

Lib Dem gain, swing of 25pts.

This thread will be specifically about the by-election. I’ll do a separate one on the ‘Blue Wall’ idea and what C&A tells us about the Gold shift hypothesis later.

First up, should we have seen this coming?

Yes.
Things always, always look easier and clearer in hindsight, so I’m not going to do any daft “I told you so” takes.

But if you’ll indulge me, cast your mind back to May, then to Dec 2019.

Places like C&A have been trending away from the Conservatives for a number of years now.
In the May 2021 locals, the Lib Dems (and Labour, Greens) cannoned through council after council in the South East + East of England, hoovering up Tory
seats. See results in places like Surrey, Bucks, and specifically C&A as @markpack pointed out: markpack.org.uk/167476/lib-dem…
Read 12 tweets

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