Thread by @MiguelGilTertre

Summary of the year: 2022 marked a structural shift in EU energy. The EU was able to manage an unprecedented situation brought by Russia aggression to Ukraine: moving away from its bigger fossil fuel supplier in a period of months. 1/n

The scale of the challenge was unforeseen for a large economy in such a short timeframe and the EU came out stronger & more united.
One year ago, there were a lot of unknowns: Enough natural gas for winter 22/23? How far higher prices could go? Would there be a recession?…
2/n

So let’s look at some key data and statistics to see how the year went: (1) Storage - storages were at historical high levels in the autumn and some are still receiving injections. Storages in the EU are now around 85% compared to around 70% one year ago. 3/n

Germany for instance at 88% now.

https://twitter.com/bnetza/status/1607708833505497089?s=46&t=ptpUT82kNaJJRTzE-ZOx6Q

🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 The EU adopted a storages regulation in June. data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/P…
🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 4/n

(2) Prices - Russia weaponised its energy supply and that contributed to bring prices up. However, it does not seem to have paid off. Price levels of the main proxy for prices in Europe are back to pre-invasion levels and lower than one year ago. Dutch TTF today below €80. 5/n

🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 The EU adopted several packages to deal with high prices and volatility. For instance on inframarginal rents to lower the impact on electricity prices of the current crisis: data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/S… 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 6/n

🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 The solidarity package included provisions on circuit breakers to address volatility and developing a new benchmark for LNG in the EU. data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/S… 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 And finally the Market Correction Mechanism at the end of the year. data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/S… 7/n 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺

(3) Diversification - A figure to remember: while the EU was importing 40% of its natural gas supplies at the beginning of the year, we are now at around 8%. This was possible thanks to the increase in Liquified Natural Gas Imports, notably from the US. 8/n

From the beginning of the year, the EU has imported 121.7 bcm of LNG. This is 49.6 bcm more than at the same point last year. In just 11 months of 2022, we imported 34 bcm more than in the entire all-time record year (2019).
9/n

From January to November, the biggest LNG exporter to the EU was the United States (33%). Cumulative imports from the US approach 52 bcm. It surpassed, four months in advance, the pledge in the EU-US statement in March on exporting at least 37 bcm LNG in 2022. 10/n

The EU platform was established and the legal instrument to bring joint purchasing closer was adopted. 🇪🇺🇺🇸 @vonderleyen and @POTUS joint statement from June. 🇺🇸🇪🇺

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… 11/n

Finally, it was key that the EU remained united on unprecedented sanctions packages. In particular the 6th package in June was a key milestone as it dealt with oil and petroleum products - the main source of revenues for Russia. 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 12/n

Prices of the Brent barrel are at the same levels as one year ago: the sanctions have not brought prices up. 13/n

(4) Green Deal acceleration - there is no contradiction between the #EUGreendeal and the current crisis. Actually more renewables and energy efficiency would have put the EU in a better position in 2022. The #REpowerEU plan made very explicit the need for an acceleration. 14/n

Our team made the #REPowerEU Staff Working Document outlining the investment needs and the actions required for reducing the dependence from Russia 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/… 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺
15/n

Additional efforts were done to develop further renewables, by reducing the permitting times and requirements. 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 Council Regulation laying down a framework to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy: data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/S… 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 #fitfor55 texts were also revised 16/n

According to fresh industry estimates for 2022, 41 GW of solar and 15 GW of wind capacities have been installed across EU-27. This correponds to 50% and 36% increases year-on-year. 17/n

(5) Demand reduction - Not only diversifying supply was necessary but also develop a framework for demand reduction. 🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 This was adopted in august.
eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺 18/n

It was critical to reduce natural gas demand while impacting growth as little as possible. So far the data on natural gas demand reduction has been quite remarkable putting the EU in a better position next year and all of this happened without a recession in the EU. 19/n

The EU consumption of natural gas has dropped by 20.1% in the period August-November 2022. 20/n

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/p…

No reason for complacency. Next year will be challenging again but in 2022 the EU delivered. It will deliver again in 2023. /END