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Dec 30, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
$KALA +$679,165.08

Little happy new year chart from me today. I thought you would enjoy this one as it diverges a bit from the usual setups.

Shorted yesterday and got stopped out for -40k. I realized what this was shortly after and started loading in maintaining a strong avg. Image
1-1.5mil float, however all brokers had shares yesterday and today, far from 1$+ locates he should have for this type of float and range.

Not one trader either in private rooms or Twitter was long bias on this and all were involved. Image
Seasonality is important for this setup. You see confidence cycles where shorts become too comfortable and drop their standard. This is where we are/were today.

Woke up earlier today and watched it grind, I added up to 45kish and got some off into $45.
I went through every single parabolic play of the last 5y preparing for today.

According to the update I added into the morning dip expecting something similar to $LFIN, with a double stuff into 11am opening up.

We shouldn’t come back on this setup so I cut all accordingly. Image
This could easily have been a $3mil trade today.

I wanted to share this one because it shows a different setup but also shows what I consider a failed trade.

This is dynamic management and maximization of an opp.

DYNAMIC EV (@TheOneLanceB has good material on it) ImageImage
One more thing that made this the perfect day for this setup is the offerings we got on $PALI and $HOTH.

Killed the long confidence, made shorts fomo to catch the only play standing.

A cocktail of emotions that gifted those with a clear mind an advantageous outcome.
Finally the underwriters holding $KALA were Baker Bros

Bake Bros is a biotech investor group that historically does not sell quickly, this is not Cantor, H.C. Wainwright or Maxim..

These are conviction buyers for the most part

More from our friends at:
knowledge.dilutiontracker.com/en/articles/68…

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More from @TheShortBear

THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Dec 28, 2022
This market keeps on proving that the hardest thing of bear markets is patience and being calm.

It has been at leadt 5 times it looks like we were out of the weeds.

It is easy to add to positions just to get kicked back out a few weeks after.
Not only do you need to sit but if you mess up big 7 fig opportunities, you have no opportunity to make it back.

This is by far the best lesson I have gotten in my 10y career. Many will not survive it.

Those that take the least damage will go 10x during the next bull market.
The best businesses are on hardcore dicounts yet most most still focus on the most known names (fintwit, reddit, WSB...).

Lowest valution in 20y will lead to easy 2,5,10x over the next decade, but most will overstrech prior.
Read 11 tweets
THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Dec 1, 2022
I took 1 years to read ~120 books (via audible and reading) about investing.

To sum up the main aspect these super investors think about to invest I would sum it up as:

Moat + short term issue+ market turmoil = long term winner
Moat: Competitive advantage or moat describes an edge a company has over its market competitors.

ex:

Coca Cola will still be around in 10y
Google will still be the go to in 10y
AAPL still will sell iPhones in 10y

The reason is simple, the harder it is for you to give up on ..
an item and thus company, the easier it is to forecast earnings through consumer behavior. It creates long term earnings stability.

Short term issue:

Because those businesses are so stable longer term, a short term issue can lead to a valuation drop in the short term...
Read 7 tweets
THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Nov 29, 2022
EPS or earnings fears.

The earnings through lagged behind the market 75% (15 out of the 20) of the last bear markets.

The average lag is 6.5 months or about 2 quarters.

More from jpm: am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jp… Image
The most recent crisis shows the same pattern. Image
2000 shows an outlier, you will notice that the gdp never dipped. Image
Read 4 tweets
THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Nov 28, 2022
"Mr. Williams said he expects the inflation rate to slow to between 5% and 5.5% by the eoy,and 3% and 3.5% next year"
...
"above the Fed’s 2% target, Williams warned that bringing down underlying price pressures.. will require further tightening"

wsj.com/articles/fed-o…
Bit of background.

In 1980 at peak CPI it took us 39 months or more than 3y to get back under a 2.5 CPI reading.

3 years to get under 3.5 as well in 1980 instead of 2y projected now...

Today's tightening is projected to be 30%+ faster than the most hawkish fed ever already! Image
These constant FED member comments are uneducated and constantly contradicting each other.

Only truth out there is this:

The FED wants to keep the hawkish stance until they can pivot. All they are doing is making sure that good inflation data is not seen as instant pivot.
Read 4 tweets
THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Nov 26, 2022
The duration of the first phase in trading is the time it takes you to detach from what trading is portrayed as to what it actually is.

It can take months, it took me years.

Your performance will show when that switch is made.
From->To

Randomness-> Sniper
Overactive->Thinking
…

Perception≠reality

Finding out truths becomes a way of life. It is not the happiest way to live, but it is truthful. People usually stand in the way of the raw truth.

It is partly why high performers like philosophy.
The real work begins when the focus shifts from perception to reality.

It is only under the light of truth that the focus changes to take advantage of those you keep on chasing the perception.

Their losses become your gain,until you reach the last stage.Fighting those that see.
Read 4 tweets
THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Nov 26, 2022
It took me 3-4 years to get near profitability.

It took me 5y to make 7fig, it took me 6y to make 8 figures…

I went through forex, copying trades, scalping, swinging, options and more before realizing one thing.

As long as I chase what someone else is doing, I won’t make it.
The quickest way to grow is by asking the right questions.

Here are a few that I asked myself:

•Where will I not have competition?

-> I need to avoid big money-> penny stocks/small caps

•How can I compound fastest?

->(RR * odds) * occurrences = expectancy
•How can I make sure to outperform the best?

->Data/Edge(big influence on me was @kroyrunner89

->Sec filings(dilution), this was extremely new, no one knew how to read them. As far as I know only @goodetrades did

•How can I make sure I am improving?

->journal, track
Read 6 tweets

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