$UBER thesis by Bill Ackman, Pershing Square.

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$NBIS-Investment thesis

I thought I would share one of my recent buys, which was made during the recent DeepSeek panic.

An AI Infrastructure platform with multiple hidden assets and a fortress balance sheet.

I thought I would share part of the research.

1/ 2/

$PLTR nice little setup today.

This is what a hot market does, it offers very clear big R/R situations range and liquidity.

You'll see the initial push down, with a corrective wave up to the 61fib. From there we built a clear level at 62.5 with a hidden seller. This small downtrend was within a bigger uptrend, this I started long small for a breakout higher, but very attentive and looking to take the other side should we trap longs.

That is exactly what happened. I switched short, covered into support and added back pyramiding.

I thought we would take some time to dissect the newest turtle podcast.

@TheOneLanceB and Jonathan talk are full of small gems.

If you are anywhere during your learning journey, this should be non-negotiable material.

Why are we listening?

Exhibit Nr1.

+$75,252
$NVDA & $AVGO

Kept it simple today. Semis short.
Let's go through the choices:

$ARM
-Fresh breakout
-3 day acceptance low 160s
-ATR candle
-No gap
->🚫

$SMCI
-Fresh breakout
-AIx news
-3rd green day
-No ATR candle
-Gap
-Long consolidation period (multimonth) and acceptance of 900s
->🚫

$AVGO
-Gap fill 70$ lower
-Weakness vs group last trading day
-Clear breakdown area $1,790
-Run from 1450 to 1850 or 30% within 4 days
-Big rejection volume last sessione
->🚫✅

This one is a different setup as the most extended mean reversion. I saw this one as the laggard and as the one with the biggest need for more structure and gap fill.
I expected this one to drift off easier than the rest and give a beta trade to the sector.

$MU
- 11% extension straight green
- 3rd day green streak(3rd being today)
- Big exhaustion volume last session
- Clear resistance level as last session highs
-None ideal bearish pin bar candle last session
->✅

The only reason I wasn't on this one was my personal history with the ticker which made me avoid it. I was long MU as one of my biggest bets at 60 a few months ago and cut it on the Chinese ban news which ended up not being material through the AI boom.

$NVDA
- Full extension candle last session
- Whole number 140
- Big gap
- Price acceptance low 130s
- No multi green candle setup
- 3 Trillion market cap now
- Cramer comment ('so far so good on holding...'
- Most liquid
-Clear target (136.5 support and gap fill)

Post open comments:
-Massive 140 seller wall
-Clear breakdown levels:
->139.5->VWAP->Lod
-> Easiest to pyramid and manage
->✅

Overall I was not super interested in the trade, but wanted to participate given the gaps. Given we did not have multiple green days and option expiry or similar, I wanted to participate until panic showed up.

I expected the bounce to be big and for the move to be over post the rebalance and stopouts. This is not what a general sector blowoff looks like in my view.

We had multiple great earnings, news and breakouts on 1/2 of the semi names. These need to either show a true blowoff or a non-event like reaction to great news and it does not look like it.

On top it seems like fintwit was ready for this short as well which doesnt show much fomo for these long moves.

Now can this be the top? Sure, but it is very easy to get wrecked shorting a bubble or strong trend and given the grade of the setups, I did not want to find out.

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+$41,339

Nice and easy day with a different approach.
I will talk about $NVDA below.

$GME cut quickly yesterday and lost -$100k, a fairly small loss which allowed me to come back very easily.

I did not want a directional bias, but what was clear is the rubberband type action and jumpy spread. Each price level would get tested 5 times before moving lower or higher.

I took advantage of it but consitently playing off of the stop orders and swipes.

0 losses today. $NVDA is the type of setup I would have played in the past, but my $TSLA trade earlier this year that @TheOneLanceB touched on made me stay away.

Main points:
$NVDA got extended through its gap up through earnings, setting a new accepter balance higher.

Shortly after we saw it accept a new range higher, again moving the balance.

It only gave us one extension day on lower volume... Not at all what I would call an A+.

To top it off it is not Friday so the option expiry aspect also did not fit perfectly.

(side note: interest rates lower in the ECB and lower yields in the US played a role as well as multiples will be able to expand as long as the economy does not implode).

+$43,706

I won't post many more of these but for the sake of explaining the type of risk management I am implementing here is one example from today.

$NVDA -13% and $SMCI -16% in a straight line on the bigger timeframes. The trade was simple.

$NVDA was running back towards its opening range top and over VWAP while $SMCI was still working through the supply.

Waited for a clear RR and for the structure to confirm and took it for a chase back towards the 'semi equilibrium'

7$ risk vs 15$ reward

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I piked so hard.

I was prepared, I was max long with leverage. I was somewhat patient.

And I still missed 50% of this move. A good lesson on at least trailing part of a super strong position.

Overall still very pleased.

$SMCI $NVDA

https://twitter.com/theshortbear/status/1748821710718005370

The biggest positive for myself is that I was able to switch from a short position to heavy long and to understand the dynamics of the trade.

•Distribution range
OR
•Breakout into parabolic

That is major growth for me as a trader. No Ego.

Let’s be quicker with the private video release.

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+116.5% Trailing 1 year (smoothed 10days)

Today I made the biggest change to my portfolio in over a year.

I spent the entire morning selling off nearly all my assets.

I went from long ~200% to long ~65%. The entire year I focused on maintaining a strong position in my stocks.

I was positioned aggressively and kept on day trading on the side.

During the latest dip I made sure to play the seasonality, positioning... to get long into the max shorts we saw from hedge funds to CTAs.

Here is how I am starting the process of checking if $VVOS was a miss or not.

I start by using @_spikeet to pull the appropriate dataset.

My idea is simple.

Finding the tickers that had a similar gap up and a similar intraday run and from there their usual path. $VVOS gapped up up 175%, thus I am choosing the gap basket 125% until 225%, which represents a deviation of 50% from the gap.

$VVOS ran 350% before breaking out higher in the afternoon, thus I will be looking tickers that ran a minimum of 400% until their hod.

This took 12min

There is only one comparison that looks like the current market.

1974-1975

It is the only one with similar inflation data as well as interest rates regime.

If we do end up breaking down, this is the roadmap.
I'd expect a recession in Q1 2024 together with rate cuts. The market would drop as rates would come down and we'd find a bottom in EPS and employment in late Q3 to Q4 24.

The recovery would be broad across risk assets and alike as inflation would crash down if not happened already. (through rate cuts)

Cloud remains the space I have been long since mid to end 2022.

I had the change to add to these positions during Q1 and Q2 and have held tight since.

The focus is around the service companies that are directly linked to the growth of cloud. Cloud security grew into a major bet through the growth my positions have benefitted from.
$CRWD $ZS ( $ZS replace $NET as per my tweet)

$GOOGL and $AMZN both are sizable as well through their 40%+ gains since the buys. Both are plays on Cloud and services around AI.

Spent some time this morning to go through prior charts to refresh my brain.

I went from the end of 2021 to now.

I will say I am just amazed at the moves from the 2021 period and just how complicated these moves were to trade in terms of risk management.

Here are examples:





That time was all about finding an entry point near open and adding. The range (open to high/low) was immense.

Stubborn players got wrecked

$TTOO +$519,777

Good multiday setup.
It wasn't as good as $NKLA or similar from earlier this year though.

Clear dilution setup with a vote coming up on September 12th.

I am still wondering why it would even run into it(why people would buy) 1/ The initial day +$177,520

I thought I would include a review and my thought process straight from my 'trade recap' sheet.

Clear setup and prepared from prior multidays.

Easy trade.

Through the cushion, now I can focus on the daily swing trade.

I added back and swung 660k.

Stanley Druckenmiller

Drunckemiller just made $46,115,000 today and +$299,368,632 this year from $NVDA.

He was the first investor to jump on $NVDA and the AI bandwagon. He accumulated a heavy position starting in Q1 and then, while everyone doubted $NVDA, accumulated more and more.

His pyramiding throughout the year leaves him with a humongous profit.

$NVDA now accounts for 14%, his biggest position in his portfolio.

$NKLA +$321,103

Finished the trade idea today.

Honestly, it respected exactly what I wanted from it and I tried my best to maximize while on my travel setup.

+$471,672 between the long from yesterday and short today.

Here is how and why I played it: First what people did not realize imo:

1. Antara is behind the dilution. Antara capital were the people behind the $AMC & $APE situation, they are great at structuring dilution.

They just sold their shares of $APE.

They are making moves and have time to focus on $NKLA

June 2023

+$3,464,625

I am aware I am posting profitable trades and I saw some want to see the losses too.

I thought rather than looking at the wins, we would look at an entire month and specifically the losses.

Let's dissect them, look at the charts + my review process. I want to state that while it feels like I only post winners, its partly due to my consistency lately.

My trading has been exactly where I want it to be over past months after fixing mistakes.

I am working diligently to make sure mistakes from prior years are not being repeated