Samuel Bendett Profile picture
Dec 31, 2022 20 tweets 8 min read Read on X
1/ A THREAD: As 2022 draws to a close, a few words about how technology helped shape and influence the war in Ukraine – specifically, the impact of commercial quadcopters. ImageImageImageImage
2/ Ukraine led this charge as Russia invaded in February 2022, scoring some major successes in key battles against Russian forces, with quadcopters providing crucial intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities to long-range artillery and MLRS systems.
3/ This capacity enabled Ukraine to better organize and position its forces to meet the invading Russian military. cnet.com/news/ukraine-i…
4/ The pinnacle of this tactic is a Chinese-made DJI Mavic quadcopter – easy to procure, easy to fly/ navigate, it became absolutely indispensable for ISR, target spotting, artillery correction and combat missions like “kamikaze attacks”, dropping small bombs and grenades. ImageImageImageImage
5/ Ukrainian military forces have greater flexibility and independence in making decision based on the data from these quadcopters, a key capability that enabled them to faster react to Russian movements, maneuvers and force-positioning. This is still the case now.
6/ But the Russian military and its allies likewise incorporated the DJI and other quadcopters like Autel into their tactics and force structure. DNR militia expanded its drone training center in 2022 to teach drone operators that fly Mavics and other models. Image
7/ Ukraine has done the same, constantly training its soldiers with the help of the industry, ICT and other volunteers to make their quadcopters more lethal and effective. rferl.org/a/ukraine-dron…
8/ Russian forces have done the same, with the DNR drone center leading the way, along with other significant volunteer-based efforts like "Dronnitsa." The goal: make quadcopter use organic, train the operators and trainers who can quickly teach others how to use such technology. Image
9/ Today, drone-delivered videos are comm on social medial, with lots of content coming from quadcopters. Videos of attacks, tracking the soldiers and vehicles, of strike and bombings are in inseparable part of the Ukraine war narrative, told by Ukrainians and Russians alike.
10/ These DJI and Autel (and other) quadcopters have become so successful when paired with artillery that a Russian top general called DJI Mavic a true symbol of modern warfare, elevating artillery to the pedestal not seen since WW1.
11/ But these commercial products are vulnerable to military-grade countermeasures like electronic warfare, signals interference and different-caliber weapons. Both sides acknowledged that such countermeasures can have a powerful detrimental effect on quadcopter ops.
12/ This led to measures to counter these tactics - building different flight concepts, manipulating software and disengaging from the aeroscope. Ukraine and Russian efforts include hackathons to come up with the best ways to pilot such UAVs in a severely contested environment.
13/ What's in store for Mavic and other quadcopters in 2023? More widespread use, better integration of quadcopters and their operators into combined arms formations and units, and more widespread pilot training. npr.org/2022/08/22/111…
14/ Additional evolution includes building on current group quadcopter use to scaling it up to swarm ops, enabled by machine learning algorithms that recognize targets on the ground. vox.com/2022/9/21/2335…
15/ The DJI will finally see the semblance of competition as Ukrainian and Russian domestic efforts include investing in mass-scale production capacity to deliver thousands of small UAVs and quadcopters to the front. eastrussia.ru/news/drony-dly…
16/ For Russia, the continue dependence on many Chinese-made components will remain a feature in 2023. “Got it on AliExpress” will remain relevant, as customers will look for ready quadcopters solutions and components at online and physical marketplaces. ria.ru/20221201/dron-…
17/ In 2022, Telegram-based informational awareness and fundraising reached unprecedented levels, allowing volunteers to donate specific equipment, materiel and even raise funds for specific drones. Image
18/ As the Russian military seeks to retrain its mobilized force, it will push quadcopter use down to the tactical levels for more advanced tactical ISR. For both sides, targeting the other’s quadcopter operations left-of-launch and during/post- launch will remain a key tactic.
19/ Bottom line - the small quadcopter showed its utility in 2022 and we will see its use become more professionalized by both sides. ImageImageImageImage
20/ Questions for next year: Will national industries finally find a substitute to DJI drones in combat? Can these small quadcopters be battle-hardened to withstand countermeasures? Can their operations become more sophisticated with new technology like AI? Stay tuned… Image

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More from @sambendett

Jul 14
1/ QUICK THREAD on the Ukrainian thoughts about future combat technologies. Main translated points below: "There is a current trend to improve the effectiveness of FPV drones by increasing their flight range and weight of the transported munition." focus.ua/opinions/65741…
2/ "But this automatically leads to an increase in the drone size and its visibility, which makes it more vulnerable to CUAS. However, these are the conditions of positional battles, dictated by current tactics. But the strategic drone development..."
3/ "...will most likely follow the opposite path, which sci-fi writers predicted long ago - through maximum miniaturization. That is, the combat drone will shrink to the size of a bee to deliver a small dose of poison to paralyze enemy fighters, or..."
Read 13 tweets
Jul 6
1/ Last year, Russian MOD tried to promote the "Sibiryachok" combat quadcopter made by one of its defense companies - the military users noted its poor quality, lambasting it on social media (below). This drone is back - recent uses point to continued bad quality (it crashed).
2/ Many reviews are downright brutal, with Russian solders not holding back expletives to describe it, and some are saying they are not using it altogether due to its poor quality. t.me/mil_hub/61207



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3/ Other users are more "kind", noting that before this "sophisticated" quadcopter can be flown, it requires a lot of adjustments, including software updates. Other responses point out that this "sophisticated" drone needs proper training and background work before its flown. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 2
1/ QUICK TAKE on the Russian comments about best and worst CUAS practices in the war so far - main translated points below: "Defense always loses to offense, and this applies to drones and electronic warfare. Frequencies change, new firmware and new solutions appear." Image
2/ "For example, now UAVs are flying higher than before, and they are difficult to land. Countering drones is always reactive, not proactive. In terms of counteraction, the future lies with kinetic methods of destruction."
3/ "These (methods) could be interceptor drones, some kind of networks or advanced small arms. Now the best drone destroyer is a shotgun, and although it doesn’t hit far, it’s still reliable and it doesn’t matter how advanced the targeted drone is."
Read 8 tweets
Jun 24
1/ QUICK THREAD: What is the role of combat UGVs at this point in the Ukraine war? I recently authored an article on the Russian combat UGV developments for the European Security and Defense magazine. Main points below from the text: euro-sd.com/2024/06/articl…
2/ The article is meant as a snapshot in time - to show what are the main UGV trends in the war by May 2024. Prior to its ill-fated invasion, Russian defense R&D worked on multiple UGV projects - but they were built in few numbers and tested in mostly...
3/ ...in controlled environments. The few Russian combat UGV tests that took place in Syria were also limited to a few vehicle samples over a short time. There appeared to be no widespread drills incorporating this new tech in combined arms formations.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 22
1/ QUICK TAKE on more pessimism about Russian FPV/quadcopter development efforts and use at the front from Project Archangel (see posts embedded in this thread): "What do Ukrainians have? (compared to us) Increases the number of pilots and drones; moreover..."
Image
2/ "...Ukrainian forces are establishing a connection between UAVs, communications and electronic warfare; they have a unified management system, applied tactics and gains from experience; and they strive to get maximum effect on the battlefield from using cheap weapons."
3/ "Ukrainians quickly understood the specifics and realities of the current war and are taking measures to increase volumes. And what do we have regarding unmanned aerial systems and their development!? Even to put it mildly!"
Read 10 tweets
Jun 21
1/ QUICK TAKE on the comments made by Mikhail Filipov, the founder of Russia's "Project Archangel" volunteer effort, on the drone war in Ukraine: "Even before the (invasion), Ukraine was doing very well with UAVs." Image
2/ "They work with UAVs systematically, and understand very well that drones are a cheap way to win a war. We realized this later on as well. That’s why we created our own schools, where we train drone operators, who, after completing the training..."
3/ "...enter into a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense. We already have more than 15 schools throughout Russia, including in new territories. In general, we are trying to move these schools closer to the front."
Read 15 tweets

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