1/ A THREAD: As 2022 draws to a close, a few words about how technology helped shape and influence the war in Ukraine – specifically, the impact of commercial quadcopters.
2/ Ukraine led this charge as Russia invaded in February 2022, scoring some major successes in key battles against Russian forces, with quadcopters providing crucial intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities to long-range artillery and MLRS systems.
3/ This capacity enabled Ukraine to better organize and position its forces to meet the invading Russian military. cnet.com/news/ukraine-i…
4/ The pinnacle of this tactic is a Chinese-made DJI Mavic quadcopter – easy to procure, easy to fly/ navigate, it became absolutely indispensable for ISR, target spotting, artillery correction and combat missions like “kamikaze attacks”, dropping small bombs and grenades.
5/ Ukrainian military forces have greater flexibility and independence in making decision based on the data from these quadcopters, a key capability that enabled them to faster react to Russian movements, maneuvers and force-positioning. This is still the case now.
6/ But the Russian military and its allies likewise incorporated the DJI and other quadcopters like Autel into their tactics and force structure. DNR militia expanded its drone training center in 2022 to teach drone operators that fly Mavics and other models.
7/ Ukraine has done the same, constantly training its soldiers with the help of the industry, ICT and other volunteers to make their quadcopters more lethal and effective. rferl.org/a/ukraine-dron…
8/ Russian forces have done the same, with the DNR drone center leading the way, along with other significant volunteer-based efforts like "Dronnitsa." The goal: make quadcopter use organic, train the operators and trainers who can quickly teach others how to use such technology.
9/ Today, drone-delivered videos are comm on social medial, with lots of content coming from quadcopters. Videos of attacks, tracking the soldiers and vehicles, of strike and bombings are in inseparable part of the Ukraine war narrative, told by Ukrainians and Russians alike.
10/ These DJI and Autel (and other) quadcopters have become so successful when paired with artillery that a Russian top general called DJI Mavic a true symbol of modern warfare, elevating artillery to the pedestal not seen since WW1.
11/ But these commercial products are vulnerable to military-grade countermeasures like electronic warfare, signals interference and different-caliber weapons. Both sides acknowledged that such countermeasures can have a powerful detrimental effect on quadcopter ops.
12/ This led to measures to counter these tactics - building different flight concepts, manipulating software and disengaging from the aeroscope. Ukraine and Russian efforts include hackathons to come up with the best ways to pilot such UAVs in a severely contested environment.
13/ What's in store for Mavic and other quadcopters in 2023? More widespread use, better integration of quadcopters and their operators into combined arms formations and units, and more widespread pilot training. npr.org/2022/08/22/111…
14/ Additional evolution includes building on current group quadcopter use to scaling it up to swarm ops, enabled by machine learning algorithms that recognize targets on the ground. vox.com/2022/9/21/2335…
15/ The DJI will finally see the semblance of competition as Ukrainian and Russian domestic efforts include investing in mass-scale production capacity to deliver thousands of small UAVs and quadcopters to the front. eastrussia.ru/news/drony-dly…
16/ For Russia, the continue dependence on many Chinese-made components will remain a feature in 2023. “Got it on AliExpress” will remain relevant, as customers will look for ready quadcopters solutions and components at online and physical marketplaces. ria.ru/20221201/dron-…
17/ In 2022, Telegram-based informational awareness and fundraising reached unprecedented levels, allowing volunteers to donate specific equipment, materiel and even raise funds for specific drones.
18/ As the Russian military seeks to retrain its mobilized force, it will push quadcopter use down to the tactical levels for more advanced tactical ISR. For both sides, targeting the other’s quadcopter operations left-of-launch and during/post- launch will remain a key tactic.
19/ Bottom line - the small quadcopter showed its utility in 2022 and we will see its use become more professionalized by both sides.
20/ Questions for next year: Will national industries finally find a substitute to DJI drones in combat? Can these small quadcopters be battle-hardened to withstand countermeasures? Can their operations become more sophisticated with new technology like AI? Stay tuned…
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1/5 QUICK TAKE from Rus mil bloggers on the importance of FPVs in combat: "In recent years, it has become clear: the front has changed. FPV drones have proven themselves to be at their best, literally and figuratively. They are cheap, accessible, adaptable. They..." t.me/MariaBerlinska…
2/5 "They fly where traditional means are powerless. They fight 24/7, without sleep, fear or fatigue. Behind every operator is the art of control, behind every drone is astonishing efficiency. More and more resources - personnel, technology, financial - are now concentrated here."
3/5 "The industry is adapting. Budgets are being rewritten. Tactics are being rethought. Electronic warfare systems, autonomous routes, AI tracking algorithms, mobile launch stations - everything is developing around FPVs."
1/ QUICK TAKE by Rus mil bloggers on the technical aspects of today's Ukrainian drone strike: "FPV control was carried out via mobile networks (4G, LTE and the like). The bandwidth of modern mobile networks is more than enough to perform such tasks." t.me/ZarodinuVmeste…x.com/United24media/…
2/ "There were no ground control stations and, especially, no saboteur operators nearby. The truck driver in particular and the logistics chain in general are another story that our special services will have to figure out."
3/ "The FPV drone was controlled via the ARDUPILOT software and hardware solution (system). Absolutely the same solution on the "Baba Yagas", only instead of the Starlink terminal, there is an LTE modem with an Ethernet output, to which a single-board PC a la "Raspberry/Orange"."
1/ QUICK TAKE by Rus commentators on the consequences of today's strike: "Reinforcement of air defense will be necessary - not only from fixed-wing (Ukr) drones, but also from FPV drones, specially since there has already been an experience of such an attack in Machulishchi, where (our) A-50 was damaged. Obviously, the security at the airfield was not prepared for this type of attack." t.me/boris_rozhin/1…
2/ "Strengthening counter-intelligence and counter-terrorist measures. The enemy was able to prepare and carry out a complex operation on our territory. This is a clear failure of the special services that allowed this to happen."
3/ "The drone revolution is not over. It should be taken into account that the options for using kamikaze attack drones will only become more numerous in the future. The possibility of using drones from hidden carriers (containers, ships with containers, trucks) is not new..."
1/ QUICK THREAD on the key military tech seen during Russia's May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow. Since 2022, such parades have been getting smaller in scale as more and more mil tech was used in the ongoing Ukraine invasion. Was this year different?
2/ The parade was opened by a T-34 WW2 tank, just like last year. This year, multiple T-34s went through the Red Square, compared to a single tank in 2024.
3/ Multiple armored vehicles, APC and IFV types followed.
1/5 What will the future tank look like? Russa's Uralvagonzavod, the main manufacturer of Rus tanks, offered the following ideas: The prospective tanks will receive echeloned protection and more powerful guns, will receive standard radars and UAVs... ria.ru/20250328/tank-…
2/5 ...will be designed according to the modular principle and have an optional crew. "To date, (we) have already developed a significant portion of these technologies, and are working on the implementation of this scientific and technical potential."
3/5 At the same time, Uralvagonzavod noted that even with completely unmanned tanks, their size is unlikely to be significantly reduced given the need to carry medium and large caliber weapons...
1/ QUICK TAKE by a Russian volunteer on what happens to the "People's VPK" - a vast ecosystem of Rus volunteer and start up efforts that manufacture and supply Russian forces with drones, CUAS and other equipment. Translation of main points below: t.me/rogozin_alexey…
2/ "If we imagine a scenario in which the SVO (war) is suspended, the first to feel the consequences will not be the quasi-state defense enterprises, but the so-called people's military-industrial complex: those same hundreds of private companies and teams of enthusiasts who..."
3/ "...in two years, have transformed from garage workshops into independent production chains. These structures grew out of the urgent and often informal needs of the troops. When drones were needed at the front "yesterday", when according to the classic logic..."