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Nick Gerli Profile picture
@nickgerli1
Dec 31, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
There's too many Realtors.

1.6 Million currently registered with NAR. That's higher than 2007 Bubble.

📉30% of Realtors will likely quit during this Housing Crash. Once that happens, you'll know bottom is approaching. Image
Consider this:

Home Sales / Realtor collapsed to lowest level on record in 2022.

Even lower than the depths of the 2008 Housing Crash.

(Source: NAR) Image
The Housing Bubble has popped, but the Bubble mentality has NOT.

1.6 Million Realtors are still "holding on", thinking the Housing Market will improve in 2023.

History says it won't.
But watch out for when these Realtors inevitably quit in 2023.

When they quit, it will likely coincide with investors/flippers/stubborn sellers "quitting" as well.

And that's when you'll see inventory/listings really explode.
And remember folks: despite recent price decline, we're still in the BIGGEST BUBBLE EVER in Housing.

Inflation-adjusted home prices STILL above 2006 Levels.

(Funny how similar this graph looks to the Realtor graph) Image

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More from @nickgerli1

Nick Gerli Profile picture
May 23
Over 60% of US Counties registered home value declines in April 2025.

The largest share in over two years. Image
1) There's only been two times before in the last 25 years where Zillow reported this many counties experiencing monthly value declines.

2008-2012 crash.

And the mini-correction that occurred in market in late 2022.
2) Indicating that the breadth of the housing slowdown is increasing.

It's no longer just Florida and Texas where prices are dropping.

It's now basically everywhere in the South, many parts of California, and the Pacific Northwest. Image
Read 7 tweets
Nick Gerli Profile picture
May 22
The national housing market continues to weaken.

Single-Family Months of Supply: 4.17 (highest since 2016)

Condo Months of Supply: 6.16 (highest since 2012)

What's hidden in the national averages is that certain states (TX, FL) are starting to look a lot like 2008. While other areas (NY, IL) are still looking like the pandemic.

A bifurcated housing market downturn is occurring, with values now dropping in 50% of states.

Watch this months of supply indicator in coming months, because it could go up further.Image
1) Generally realtors say 4-6 months of supply is a "balanced market".

But that is no longer the case, as home prices are very overvalued today.

The more overvalued that prices get, the more sensitive price growth becomes to months of supply increasing.
2) For instance, the U.S. Housing Market is 17.1% overvalued today compared to its long-term norms.

This overvaluation means that as Months of Supply crosses 4-5 at a national level, prices will drop. Image
Read 7 tweets
Nick Gerli Profile picture
May 20
Zillow just reported monthly home value drops in 27/50 states.

This is no longer just a Texas/Florida downturn. Image
1) Florida, Colorado, DC, California, and Washington led the way in value declines from March to April.

Next was Arizona, Louisiana, West Virginia, Texas, and Georgia.
2) The biggest monthly decline came in Florida, with Zillow's seasonally-adjusted value index declining by -0.55% on the month.
Read 12 tweets
Nick Gerli Profile picture
May 19
The national housing shortage is over.

With resale inventory on the U.S. Housing Market hitting nearly 1 million listings this spring.

Listings bottomed in April 2022 at around 379k. Since then, they have nearly tripled.

To the highest level of supply since 2019. Image
1) Good news for homebuyers, no doubt.

Higher inventory is going to put downward pressure on home prices, with values already starting to drop month-over-month in about 50% of states.
2) New data from Zillow shows monthly home values declined in 27 out of 50 states in April 2025.

These figures are seasonally adjusted, so seeing so many areas go through a drop in the spring is definitely something to take note of.

(areas in blue on map) Image
Read 12 tweets
Nick Gerli Profile picture
May 17
Home builder sentiment just plummeted to the lowest level in 13 years for the month of May.

The last time sentiment was this low, it was the 2007-2012 housing collapse.

Builders are reporting very low traffic. Increased use of price cuts. And are giving sales incentives on over 60% of listings.

Meanwhile, we have the highest level of spec builder inventory on the market since 2009.

Bad news for people who want home prices to go up. Good news for prospective buyers - things are about to get cheaper.Image
1) To quote the NAHB, home builders did outright price cuts on 34% of listings in May, and offered sales incentives on 61% of listings.

Those are high figures. Image
2) Most concerning, though, was the buyer traffic.

Homebuyer traffic at builder sites, a leading indicator of demand, plummeted to an index level of 23/100.

There have only been a handful of times in history where homebuyer traffic ever got this low.
Read 14 tweets
Nick Gerli Profile picture
May 15
The housing market has never been this unaffordable in U.S. history.

With inflation-adjusted home prices setting a record over the last three years.

We're now in the biggest housing bubble of all-time, and the only period that came close was 2006, before the big crash.

Many people like to tell you "home values will never drop". But those people conveniently don't show you this graph.

There is no historical precedent for how expensive today's housing market it is.

And homebuyers know it.Image
1) What's extremely interesting is that home prices, for a very long time, simply tracked the rate of inflation.

More specifically, from 1890 to 1990, over 100 years, inflation-adjusted prices never went more than 15% above their long-term trend line.
2) The housing market in this era was stable and predictable. Prices never really boomed, outside of two inflation-driven episodes after WW2 and in the 1970s.

Meanwhile, prices never crashed, because values never became detached from the fundamentals.
Read 18 tweets

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