if you ever wondered abt historical origins of World Bank's push for #WallStreetConsensus, look at its interventions in Zambia energy:
WB strong-armed Zambian government into hydropower that would circumvent sanctions on “racist [white] minority regime in Southern Rhodesia”
when does the World Bank supports state-owned companies?
only when they are Trojan horses for financing white colonial power.
60 years later, the World Bank is peddling the same myth - that infrastructure policy is industrial policy - with the same political economy aim: to weaken developmental states (in Africa)
Fred Block's 1977 analysis of the left reformists coming to power and trying to shift distributional flows from capital to labour is strikingly apt to capture the current predicament of Argentina, Colombia, Brazil, Chile and so many others: first inflation as class strugle
then balance of payment pressures, then escalation to price/currency/import controls that amplify the distributional struggles
the next logical step - socialising the means of production (nationalisation, new state-owned companies) runs into its own political troubles if government has not prepared supporters for rapidly abandoning the status-quo
I am far less convinced than @cedric_durand that the hegemony of finance is on the wane and that we are in some interregnum for a new macroeconomic regime.
@cedric_durand first, the quantitative argument: shrinking equity valuations and financial sector profits.
neither a robust indicator of hegemony, first on cyclical grounds, second on 'dark arts of accounting 'grounds
(the post-2010 age of asset management doesnt exist on this graph)
second, infra/structural power: @BJMbraun's work doesnt just tell us that BlackRocks of this world have become an 'easy money' constituency, but also that they are deeply embedded in & critical to the economic life of the state.
no evidence for weakening of infrastructural power
strong contender for top 3 zugzwang central banking in 2022: Dutch central bankers peddling vulgar Wicksellianism and conservative urban myths about central bank losses
I will remember 2022 as the year where we truly returned to 'central bank is a dark art' age,
where inflamed monetarist spirits run wild with excitement, no longer shackled by any monetary theory
monetarists always found reality, not (post)keynesians to be their greatest foe
if anything, 'markets' have consistently been less hawkish than central banks this year, but somehow, this will lead to a 'the tipping point' where central bank losses create hyperinflation.
through a critical macrofinance lens, I am less optimistic than @adam_tooze on Ghana's prospects to 'properly politicise derisking' & mobilise foreign investment.
We should remember that Ghana's crisis is in part driven precisely by derisking paradigm. adamtooze.substack.com/p/finance-and-…
@adam_tooze in line with Bridgetown Agenda, Adam suggests Ghana and other African countries need to rely on a combination of grants, concessionary finance and derisking to mobilise private finance.
if it gets politics of derisking right, these three will also improve state capacity
but - as we've written with @nssylla last year - it is precisely the deployment of concessionary finance and derisking in the energy sector that fundamentally weakened the fiscal capacity of the Ghanian state, to the tune of USD 500million
Last week, Austria blocked Romania's entrance into Schengen group, for domestic (far) right politics.
Fascinating, the outrage in Romania is now explicitly against Austrian capital and its vested capture of Romanian political elites across political spectrum.
This is outrageous legacy of #shocktherapy in Romania - Austrian Kapital has taken over strategic state-owned assets at firesale prices during the 1990s, from banks to oil and gas reserves.
Take Petrom - the largest oil and gas producer in Southeast Europe - sold by Social Democrats in power to OMV Austria in 2004.
Days before privatisation contract signed, Romanian government passed control of country's oil and gas reserves to Petrom, a nice little gift to OMV.