Thread by @mintzmyer

First market takes (hot takes?) of 2023: $SPY $QQQ look like the biggest bubbles left. Bombed-out small caps look far more attractive. I'd even take $ARKK vs. $SPY this year.

Other huge remaining bubble is US housing mkt...

That said, retail investors are very bearish (1/4):

Hard to fully measure this sentiment, but I think the collapse of $ARKK and other 'fanboy' stocks like $TSLA reflect a lot.

Reading WSB or browsing FinTwit for awhile is getting increasing depressing.

Meanwhile blue chips + big tech are still 30x+ P/E?!

What gives? (2/4)

Part is flight to safety (like how bonds used to outperform in bad years... until 2022). Also likely due to large/lazy institutions with captive assets and passive indexing.

Meanwhile retailers and traders have all panic dumped or been margin called.

How am I positioning? (3/4)

I'm also macro bearish, but this is almost unanimous consensus. Fear is probably over-priced into retail dominated small/midcaps by now.

I like *selective* #shipping + #energy as part of small/midcap value in '23.

Avoiding housing like the plague. Hedging with $SPY puts. (4/4)