Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW19 – A thread

Greetings everyone. Welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover the most common FPL dilemmas before GW19:

Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

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Here I share my own team and transfers for GW19:

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fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/team-reveal-bi…

Q) Should Mitrovic be prioritized this week?

In my opinion, Mitrovic is the best captaincy option in GW19 hence needs to be prioritized. Fulham are averaging ∼1.5 xG per 90 this season.

Mitrovic has a more realistic chance of returning in both fixtures as opposed...

... to the likes of Havertz or Mount who will be overdependent on the Fulham fixture alone.

I’m not too concerned about Mitrovic’s suspension tightrope and believe that the yellow card fear is being overplayed to a certain extent. Even in the worst case scenario that...

... he gets a booking, he misses the more “tougher” game v Chelsea. Is a single Gameweek game against Leicester that bad in a week where Haaland faces Chelsea?

Q) Sell Darwin or Martial?

I would keep Darwin and sell Martial instead. Darwin has been a real head scratcher so far. His xG numbers are elite but finishing woeful! Only Haaland has a better xGi than Darwin since the restart & no player has underperformed more...

... I can see Darwin accidently scoring a brace soon!

Martial has Bournemouth at home this week but I expect around 60-70 minutes at best. He could have a double in Gameweek 20 too, but one...

... of the fixtures will be against Man City so don’t mind taking the risk to sell for the best captaincy option this Gameweek.

Q) Mount or an Arsenal mid?

I prefer buying an Arsenal midfielder over a Chelsea midfielder this week. The Arsenal mids have shown they can deliver in any fixture, have the better stats & have two double GWs coming up as opposed to Chelsea's one...

... Back the better attack – only Man City have a better xG than them this season!

Mount’s underlying numbers are really poor while the Arsenal midfielders continue to stand out. Ødegaard had a better xGi than Martinelli & Saka v Brighton again - it is becoming a bit...

... of a trend. Since the restart, Ødegaard has the best xGi numbers among Arsenal assets followed by Saka, Nketiah and then Martinelli.

Further, I think a Chelsea attacker will be too overdependent on the Fulham game alone for returns. "Man City are leaky at the back" is...

... a very popular narrative these days. Worth noting that they still haven't conceded a big chance in their 2 games since the restart.

Would be more confident of a Man City clean sheet v Chelsea as opposed to a Chelsea attacker returning v them.

Q) Best James replacement?

If you're still looking for a James replacement, Shaw is easily the best pick at the moment. Man United are in the best three for big chances & minutes per xG conceded since the loss to Man City in GW9.

Much prefer him to Cucurella. Shaw is more nailed & United have the better defence:

Since Potter has taken over

(Sample size 10 games for both teams)

Chelsea big chances conceded: 18

Man United big chances conceded: 11

Chelsea xG conceded: 13.1

Man United xG conceded: 11

This week United are up against a Bournemouth team who are 20th for big chances and xG accumulated this season, so I really like Shaw’s potential.

The bookmakers share my optimism as well – Man United have been given a very healthy 50% chance of a clean sheet this Gameweek.

No team has been given a higher probability of a clean sheet than them this week, so chances are that Shaw’s owners will be rewarded straightaway.

Q) Keep or sell Foden/Cancelo?

I’d keep Cancelo in GW19 despite the two surprise benchings. City dropped points which should help his cause. Would be pointless if I sold him now only to see him regain his starting position before the potential DGW20...

Not too many defenders stand out as replacements anyway!

With Foden, it’s slightly different as most other midfielders in his price range are well and truly firing. It’s five benchings in the previous six GWs for him now. The high rotation risk makes it...

... very difficult to hold onto him despite the potential double in GW20. Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli are simply better options at the moment. Take your pick & cut your losses!

Q) Play White or Trippier?

According to the odds, White has a has a slightly better chance of returning when you factor in the clean sheet and attacking return probability of both players.

Q) De Bruyne to Salah?

I’d keep De Bruyne if I had him. He’s created three big chances yet hasn’t returned over the previous two fixtures. Only Nunez has underperformed more in terms of xGi. Owners have been massively unlucky! His numbers over the season are similar to Salah’s.

In isolation, I prefer Salah due to his goal-threat this GW but De Bruyne then is likely to have a double in GW20. It’s the kind of situation where you’ve made your bed so you have to lie in it.

Q) Keep or sell Almiron?

I’m happy to keep Almiron for another two GWs before re-assessing his place in my team. If you have Andreas, you can easily bench Almiron this GW (rather than sell for Mount) & Almiron then has FUL in GW20.

I see Almiron as a good long term hold & expect him to offer consistent value.

If you would like to show your support, then follow me on Instagram as well for more FPL content!

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That brings me to the end of my thread. Kindly like and retweet it if you can! Also do share your feedback if possible.

THANK YOU! ❤️