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Trent Telenko Profile picture
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Jan 2 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Below is the beginning of a seven tweet analysis thread on the Ukrainian GMLRS strike at #Makeevka in occupied #Donetsk.

This 🧵and other sources are making 150 total Russian dead there on the very low end of possibility.

1/5
This is one of those sources.

Censor.NЕТ is referencing a Ukrainian National Resistance Centre report of the collapse of the Russian Army medical system in #Melitopol & the entirety of the occupied #LuhanskOblast region.

#Donetsk won't be better.

2/5
 censor.net/en/news/339072…
Next the Department of Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (StratCom) on Telegram is reporting that "...about 400 mobilised Russians were killed and about 300 more invaders were wounded with varying degrees of severity."

3/5
 pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…
Since the Russian Mobiks do not have cold weather gear for corruption reasons. They cannot disperse them without huge cold weather casualty rates.

So they are cramming them into large public buildings.

Then the Mobiks get annihilated with M31A1 GMLRS or 155mm Excalibur.
4/5
It certainly doesn't help that the Mobiks ignore their chain of command on keeping & using their cellphones in order to get water, food, & vodka from the Russian Army black market.

Everything & everyone in Russia works on short term thinking.🙄

5/5
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 4
There is another round of "Russia defeated Germany alone" breaking out on Twitter yet again.

I'm on @PhillipsPOBrien side on this particular argument.

1/
This is one of the 'Russia beat Germany alone' proponents."

2/
This is another 'Russia beat Germany alone' proponents who went out of his way to run down Lend Lease.

This is a position based on profound ignorance of Russian artillery shell supply chains in WW2.


3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 4
In following the Russo-Ukrainian War, it is important to go back and highlight how often "DC Policy Experts" have been horribly wrong about things that are incredibly important.

Case in point is this 9 June 2022 Atlantic Council piece on the Ukrainian
1/
 atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla…
...artillery shortage at that time.

This was their opening paragraph stating that HIMARS would have a "minor impact" on the fighting.

2/ Image
@HIMARStime became a meme because in the first two weeks Ukraine had 3 HIMARS launchers and a few hundred GMLRS rockets.

AFU destroyed (low end estimate) the 30 biggest Russian artillery ammunition depots within 70km of the front lines in occupied Ukraine.
3/
Read 19 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 3
Well, this sure supports my contention that Russian Mobiks lack the cold weather waterproof boots, and the clothing, to prevent trench foot and frostbite.

1/8
I've had a thread previously on non-combat/non-battle casualties where I addressed what was required to prevent mass cold injuries from trench foot & frostbite.

2/8
What has become apparent in the last few days is the Russian Army, rather than providing Mobiks with cold weather gear, is putting them in concentrated numbers in large public buildings in occupied Ukraine to prevent most of those injuries prior to committing them to battle.

3/8
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 3
One of the pleasures of going WW2 historical research on General Douglas MacArthur's Section 22 radar hunters in the Southwest Pacific is the scope it gives you for looking at WW2.

Today's surprise involved Germany & Allied intelligence limitations.

1/9
It turns out that the various Allied signals and radio intelligence organizations traded notes a lot. Case in point was the mapping of German very high frequency (VHF) radios.

I own quite a few WW2 references and this is the first time I've found a table as useful as this:
2/9
And there is a similar table for the Luftwaffe.

3/9
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 2
This is going to be an extended 🧵on consequences of Russian casualty rates on its culture and what it means for Russo-Ukrainian War termination.

What was notable about the 2014-to-2015 Donbass War/ATO was that more Russian troops were killed than the total number of...
1/
...Ukrainian civilians and AFU personnel killed by the Russians.

That is statistically unusual (see below), although the civilian vs. AFU deaths in the current war follow a similar pattern to other conflicts.


2/
A lot of Russia's losses appear to reflect the past pattern of the 1990's Chechnya campaigns, with AFU soldiers & Ukrainian government officials commenting on Russian tactics being based on Chechnya.

See:
Why the Russian Military Failed in Chechnya
globalsecurity.org/military/libra…
3/
Read 23 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 2
Useful BDA thread by @osint_east.👇

The scene reminds me of the 1988 Armenian earthquake and its building collapse victims.

See:
The 1988 earthquake in Soviet Armenia: a case study
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2142590/
1/6
Text from the link:

"Out of a population of 8,500, there were 4,202 (49.4%) deaths and 1,244 (14.6%) injured (casualty rate, 64.0%). Deaths and injuries were 67 and 11 times higher, respectively, among trapped than nontrapped victims. Being outside at the time of the...

2/6
...earthquake or having escaped to the outside from the collapsing structure was crucial for survival. Among persons found alive, 89% were rescued during the first 24 hours, mostly without the use of heavy equipment. This observation underscores the importance of swift...
3/6
Read 6 tweets

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