Thread by @Scot126126

$panr #panr $pthrf
Seeking Alpha won't publish my fact check so here it is. Sorry about the length of the thread but it was written for a different platform. 1/

https://twitter.com/SeekingAlpha/status/1609970915483488257

"Fact check: condensate and NGLs are produced elsewhere on the North Slope. For example Exxon produces >10,000 barrels per day of condensate/NGLs and fully 7% of Conoco's ANS production is condensate/NGLs. The author states, "While the oil is easily...2/
$panr #panr $pthrf

..."marketable due to the proximity of a pipeline, the NGLs are less marketable and likely receive a fraction of the net price of the oil." There is no issue with the oil part of the sentence but please note the author has deleted any reference to condensate. 3/
$panr #panr

North Slope condensate is sold at a premium to the published ANS crude oil price, and Pantheon's light, sweet crude itself trades at a premium to the ANS price. NGLs sell at a discount to the standard crude price on the Slope but decidedly not at a "fraction of the...4/
$panr

...net price of oil."
Readers of this Seeking Alpha article should challenge the author's understanding of the unique pricing environment of TAPS and North Slope hydrocarbon production. It seems the author has overlaid his understanding of pricing in the Lower 48th...5/
$panr

...without researching the regional pricing structure unique to the Alaskan North Slope. Perhaps the author should be challenged to provide a source for his contentions?
The author repeats his theory about the putative read across to Pantheon's equity value..6/
$panr #panr $pthrf

...via the sum bid per acre in the recent State of Alaska lease sales. I am happy to stipulate the author's arithmetic is quite correct, as detailed in his article. Let's now apply that *identical* rationale to valuing Prudhoe Bay, approx 30 miles north of Pantheon's acreage. 7/

Hilcorp, the operator of Prudhoe Bay, itself bid on a number of leases immediately adjacent to Prudhoe Bay. Hilcorp’s bid price per acre ranged from $28.29 to $34.22. Using the lower figure and applying the author's logic, Prudhoe Bay's 213,543 acres are thus valued at $6.04m. 8/

I repeat, a mere $6.04m for Prudhoe Bay using the author's fatuous “bid price per acre” thesis.
I submit that the author's central thesis is deeply, deeply flawed. As a fund manager in the O&G space, he ought to be well aware of the industry standard E&P valuation model..9/
$panr

...using a risked/unrisked NPV per share. This technique has been used for decades across the world in order to provide consistent analysis and comparative value assessments of disparate projects, thereby directing capital to produce a universal commodity...10/
$panr #panr $pthrf

...and achieve an acceptable return. Notably, the author offers no evidence of his own risked/unrisked model nor has he opted in his articles to debate the financial models published by the covering broking firms. 11/
$panr $pthrf #panr

Josh Young is an intellectual coward. @EnergyHobbs is a guy called David Hobbs. Google him. He's a globally acknowledged expert on O&G, has co-authored papers with Daniel Yergin and who knows more about the $panr project than anyone outside the company. 12/
#panr $pthrf

Followers of Josh and readers of his Seeking Alpha articles should ask Josh why he refuses to engage with David Hobbs on the *facts* of the $panr investment case. Re-read Josh's embarrassingly childish article. He has clearly under-researched the condensate/NGL pricing..13/
$panr

...in Alaska and the "price paid per acre" thesis is utter gibberish. The guy is just making it up as he goes along. Finally, readers are fine to be cynical about the $panr narrative. No worries. But please be aware of the outright lies being spewed by the...14/
#panr $pthrf

...organised and highly co-ordinated shorters who are posting out nonsense that the whole geological thesis underpinning $panr has collapsed. Complete gobbledygook. The company is about to use a workover rig to sort out the frack sand blockage. 15/
#panr $pthrf

Then there'll be another period of clean-up where the company will adopt knowledge from the last few weeks and apply it to the post-workover clean out. Maybe they'll pull on the reservoir aggressively to begin with to ensure sand doesn't block the lateral? 16/
$panr $pthrf #panr

Who knows what they've learned thus far. The main thing is that it is a statement of fact that the Alkaid-2 well has *not* been declared a failure (as the bears attest) and the upside to the $panr investment case remains intact. Let's see the data in 6-8 weeks time. /end
#panr

Edit to post 16/
*less aggressively