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Lawrence H. Summers Profile picture
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Jan 3 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
I just learned @HouseGOP's first initiative may be to protect tax cheats by trying to rescind last year’s investment in IRS modernization. On what sane ground can they object to restoring audit rates for millionaires when they have fallen by ~80% in the last decade? @IRSnews #IRS
Why isn’t giving the IRS money to answer the phones, use 21st century technology, and collect taxes from cheaters appealing to all but deadbeats? Does today’s Republican Party really believe too much effort goes into collecting taxes from families like the Trumps?
There will always be unethical people, ideas and acts. What makes all significant ethical failures happen in public and private life is that people who know better won’t rock the boat, and acquiesce. House Republicans know better, and I hope they vote accordingly.

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More from @LHSummers

Lawrence H. Summers Profile picture
Jan 3
.@60Minutes and @CBSNews should be embarrassed by their highlighting of doom-monger Paul Ehrlich's apocalyptic views in an interview on Sunday night. Ehrlich is as far from reputable scientific predictions as climate change denial scientists.
His past and unrepentant support for coercive fertility control, predictions that a billion people would starve to death and acceptance of triaging whole nations by cutting off food aid mark him as a dangerous extremist.
The cause of sustainable development for all the world's people is set back when extremists whose polemical views are not backed by credible research are allowed to crowd out reasonable and thoughtful voices.
Read 4 tweets
Lawrence H. Summers Profile picture
Dec 20, 2022
Doves are wrong to argue that the @federalreserve should obviously pause in raising rates since inflation expectations are low.

My column: What the Fed should do next on inflation washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
Hawks who suggest the Fed must keep raising rates until they substantially exceed past inflation neglect the fact that inflation is coming down — much less the possibility that the economy could face a Wile E. Coyote moment in 2023, in which demand collapses.
This could occur as small & med. biz hit wall of high-interest refinancing, as mkts suddenly focus on what a recession would do to corp profits, as consumers’ Covid-era savings are depleted or as biz that have been clinging to their workforces realize they’re no longer necessary
Read 4 tweets
Lawrence H. Summers Profile picture
Dec 17, 2022
Alan Blinder suggests the remaining task before Powell is a pittance compared to that of Volcker & a soft landing may be in the cards.

My June NBER paper shows past & present CPI inflation are more similar than the official data used here suggest. 1/n
prosyn.org/w9baM9S
When correcting for the change in the way housing inflation is measured, @juddcramer, @MA_Bolhuis, and I found that a return to target core CPI inflation will require about 75% of the disinflation achieved under Volker. 2/n nber.org/papers/w30116
Today's housing measurement is hindering disinflation. 3/n
Read 5 tweets
Lawrence H. Summers Profile picture
Dec 4, 2022
When Gown Embraces Town  | @monthly | @JamesFallows

This article raises issues that almost every college and university should consider. Town and gown have been too separate for too long.

washingtonmonthly.com/2022/08/28/bal…
Higher education could do much more to drive America forward. Perhaps more teaching schools analogous to teaching hospitals? More partnerships for economic development? More use of technology to educate beyond the campus?
I’d bet that a substantial fraction of Americans live within the catchment area of some higher education institution. There is vast untapped potential for universities and colleges as drivers of economic growth and social progress.
Read 4 tweets
Lawrence H. Summers Profile picture
Nov 30, 2022
Today’s JOLTS report shows a labor market that is cooling very slowly and will likely continue to be extraordinarily tight for some months to come. Job openings declined by only 350K last month, meaning we would need 9 more months at this rate just to get back to 2019 levels.
Overall there are still 1.7 job openings per unemployed today compared to 1.2 in 2019 and a historical average of 0.7. It is hard to see how wage inflation can substantially subside with such an imbalance between labor supply and demand.
While some argued two months ago that job openings can fall without increases in unemployment, the evidence so far suggests the opposite. To the extent that job openings have started to fall, unemployment has ticked up. Based on the historical data, this pattern should continue.
Read 4 tweets
Lawrence H. Summers Profile picture
Nov 21, 2022
Options on interest rates imply significant risks of inflation or prolonged downturn in the US over the next several years.
Odds are about even that 3 years from now 1 year rates will be more than 5 or less than 2 percent. And the odds are more than a quarter that they will be more than 6 or less than 1. Low rates are more likely than high rates.
I read this as the market regards a protracted period of weakness as very possible and seeing some risk of continuing above target inflation.
Read 5 tweets

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