Thread by @NeelyTamminga

1/ "Yes, if you die while working for a company, your death will be counted in JOLTS."

This and a few more gems in our #JOLTS primer thread incoming ⤵

2/ What is JOLTS?

It's a data series about labor movements reported by businesses.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the data once a month on a lagged month basis (November data is published in January).

3/ Why do markets care about JOLTS?
1. It *can* signal the demand for labor.
2. Chair Jay Powell keeps citing "Job Openings" as part of the Fed's internals on monitoring the economy.
3. Specifically, the "job openings rate" is quoted from this data series.

4/ JOLTS is often digested and discussed at the "Total Nonfarm" level meaning all public and private sector businesses except the agricultural industry.

In total, there are 28 different industry slices you can make in this data set.

5/ JOLTS is an acronym for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Each monthly report, we catch a glimpse into the following data:
Job Openings
Hires
Quits
Layoffs & Discharges
Other Separations

Let's breakdown each of these with a few pictures for our visual learners.

6/ Hires are counted during an entire calendar month with this definition:

"A hire is any addition to your payroll, and: may be a new hire or a previously separated rehire; may be permanent short-term, or seasonal; may be a recall from layoff."

7/ Layoffs are counted during an entire calendar month with this definition:

"Layoffs; discharges; terminations of permanent, short-term, or seasonal employees."

8/ Quits are counted during the entire calendar month with this definition:

"Quits (except retirements)."

We call this chart internally as the "Take This Job and Shove It" chart because that's what it is.

9/ Other Separations are counted during the entire calendar month with this definition:

"Retirements; transfers from this location; employee disability; deaths." Yes, if you die while working for a company, your death will be counted in JOLTS.

10/ Job Openings are counted as of the LAST business day of the month defined by:

"A job is open if it meets all three conditions: a specific position exists; work could start within 30 days; you are actively seeking workers from outside this location fill the position."

11/ And here is one common controversy about Job Openings lies... What is active recruiting?

The BLS defines it as a business taking steps to fill a position and then lists 10+ activities that could qualify including "posting internet notices."

12/ What's the big deal about posting internet notices? It costs companies little to be "active."

h/t to @profplum99 who wisely points out the cost of active recruiting has likely substantially come down thus rendering job openings as a potentially poor measurement.

13/ Even Fed economists figured out the change in price of ads can influence responses when they analyzed JOLTS vs. the Conference Board's data.

federalreserve.gov/econresdata/no…

14/ One more controversy to mention as recently highlighted in a Spaces conversation hosted by @profplum99 featuring @JosephPolitano: the response rates for JOLTS have been woefully dropping.

See that pink line at the bottom? Yeah, JOLTS.

15/ Recap ⤵
JOLTS matters because the markets will care.
It measures more than just job openings.
It's not without a little controversy.

Read more: bls.gov/jlt/
Intake form: bls.gov/jlt/jltc1.pdf