Do you know how the BLS defines "for economic reasons?"

You probably *think* you have an idea, but the methodology might surprise you.

The rise in "part-time for noneconomic reasons" likely doesn't mean what you think it does. A short 🧵 The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces a monthly report called the "Employment Situation Summary" or "The Jobs Report."

It's two surveys:
The Establishment Survey (reported by businesses)
The Household Survey (reported by people)

Part-time employment shows up in the latter.

Unemployment hit 3.9% because of more "unemployed."

Why are we seeing more "unemployed?"

Yes layoffs, AND, folks coming off the sidelines to find a job for health insurance as we unwind one of the last provisions of pandemic assistance (no/low-cost healthcare to 17M folks). 🧵 Back in 2020, when the economy was shut down leading to millions laid off in very short order, one provision of the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) was to ensure folks who lost their jobs had access to continuous healthcare.

This ended Mar 31, 2023 but...

"How can we know if the consumer is stressing out?"

We think about this question all the time.

Because of this vigilance, we're sometimes dubbed macro doomers. (We're not.)

We are charged with early signaling to clients.

Here's a signal to consider. ⬇️ Imagine you're a consumer and you're spending to pay the bills and enjoy life, and your spending gets away from you.

You overextend your credit until the reality settles in that you're unable to pay your balance(s).

Do you file bankruptcy or get a second job?

California's tax receipts are DOWN 25% even after the extended deadline. 📉

All is not well in fair Sacramento, Q+A-style. 🧵

h/t @RadicalAdem for flagging the article about the report; our research is directly from the LAO report. "Is California heading into a recession?"

Likely yes.

According to a report released on Friday by the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) in CA, the state entered a downturn in 2022.

They reference the Sahm Rule being triggered (there's controversy in applying to states).

Want the lowdown on today's #jobsreport? Short 🧵

3 industries drove 85% of the growth--> all of which are funded either directly or indirectly by taxpayer dollars.

Health Care +58K
Government +51K
Social Assistance +19K Part-time workers and multiple jobholders are up substantially signaling the consumer is trying to pay for their consumption.

Check out Table A-8 and Table A-9 in the release.

“Near me” in a Google Trends search clarifies the difference between casual inquiries by searchers vs. intentionality and acute consumer needs.

Payday loan near me.
Free food near me.
Part time job near me.

A clear and large subset of hurting consumers is emerging. 1/4 ⤵️ 2/ Payday loans are quick ways to get cash in folks hands. It’s predatory, but legal. Those who routinely use payday loans don’t need to know where they are located; they know. This search can show how many folks are coming off the sidelines for “one time” needs.

Compliants, Defiants, Lever Paids, and Never Paids

With 250K conversations captured pre- and post-SCOTUS ruling on student loans, the economic reality of repayment is setting in among borrowers and we estimate a 60- to 100- bps headwind to retail sales is ahead. 🧵& 🔗report ⤵ 2/ 62% of student loan borrowers are under the age of 40 with an average balance of $32K

Repayment of these loans wasn't in question.

The questions were "who" and "how much?"

With the SCOTUS ruling this past Friday, we now know: everyone and all of it (maybe).

When do student loan payments resume?

Pre-debt ceiling deal: August 30
Post-debt ceiling deal: July 31 (est.)

But the most interesting statistic is this ⤵ "$5 billion each month to the American public."
(The Hill citing McCarthy talking about the deal.)

McCarthy is referring to reclaiming the cost of forbearance to the budget; he is NOT referring to the cost of repayment by student loan borrowers.

That's likely much higher.

If you invoice any company affected by the SVB crisis, consider “firing” your client.

They need insights, not invoices.
They need empathy, not entropy.

Trust is built in the trenches.

🧵/6 Three years ago, we “fired” our clients.

When facing shutting down the economy three years ago, our clients were preparing to layoff 75-85% of their workforces while CEOs and board directors were taking $0 in compensation.

Buckle up, Buttercups.
8 Months
6 Economic Realities
3 Lifestage Priorities
1 (Uncertain) Judicial Ruling

“The Consumer” confounds in 2023

🧵(/15) & 📈📉📊⤵️ At DISTILL we’ve been deeply researching three key consumer themes what we call “Lifestage Priorities.”

Millennials as Parents 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦
Consumers as Retirees 👴🏼 👵🏼
Laborers as Consumers 🛍️

1/ Employment is viewed as a lagging economic indicator except for when laid off workers seek financial help; that's when this labor activity becomes a leading indicator.

Enter #joblessclaims.

Our latest primer thread incoming ⤵ 2/ What is "jobless claims?"

Its fancy name is Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims and it's a data series about the need for financial help for laid off workers.

The Department of Labor aggregates state-level input and publishes the data every Thursday for the prior week.

1/ "Yes, if you die while working for a company, your death will be counted in JOLTS."

This and a few more gems in our #JOLTS primer thread incoming ⤵ 2/ What is JOLTS?

It's a data series about labor movements reported by businesses.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the data once a month on a lagged month basis (November data is published in January).

Workplace vibes. Are we entering 2023 with healthy or troubling workplace culture?

Another theme for this morning’s Business News Spaces w/ @LillybeLilly

A thread on the theme ⤵️

wsj.com/articles/your-… wsj.com/articles/a-per…

"Will a surprising, rising federal deficit affect consumers' jobs?"

⬆ The first of four questions we've been discussing with leadership teams and boards this year. 🧵/16

Why jobs? Consumer capacity to spend is largely defined by employment.

Why federal deficit? ⤵ 2/ The federal deficit, though down from last year because of pandemic program comparisons, is rising quickly. Consider this snapshot taken right before the end of the federal fiscal year: the deficit went from just under $1T to the final reading of $1.4T in one month.

“I don’t understand why we even need to be profitable.” —unnamed tech co employee

I’ve heard a few disturbing quotes over the years while in the field but this one is the one I recall to mind most often. 2/ When I see the layoffs announced and the pending ones around the corner, the very people who don’t understand a need for profitability are the ones likely to be laid off.

I fear there’s a whole generation of tech who don’t understand the role of profits as a good goal.

Few will leave Twitter. It’s too costly to egos to leave.

Which means the advertisers will return. It’s too costly to ignore an installed base of daily (hourly) users.

Sunday morning musings and a story incoming ⤵️ Back during what appeared to be the peak usage of Clubhouse, blue checks and others with large followings would hop into rooms and onto stages and they’d get super frustrated at times with NOT being known. I even heard one of them say something to the effect of… 2/