Ive done ya'll a horribe disservice - ima gun try to fix that.

#BONDS and #CURRENCIES thread.

I hope this helps.

πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ Image
jPan by far is the biggest holder of USA debt.
ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

yes other central banks can buy each others dog doo. Image
But central banks can also buy their OWN dog doo

When a CB buys its own dog doo its called "quantative easing" or QE
federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/2… Image
But what happens with another central bank sells another central banks currency...by a lot?

Here is jPan since Jan1 in 2022 selling US treasuries.
UUP is like the DXY, but single state (i will talk about this in a minute)

Notice the correlations ... Image
As jPan sold treasuries, bond yields went up, japanesa currency got weaker, USD got stronger.

By design.
So now you understand how bonds impact currencies

And notice on the tail how jPan started BUYING us Bonds. Yields went down, USD got weaker, and japanesa yen got stronger.

This is the basic mechanics of bonds across countries.

And it matters.... Image
DXY.

I dont use DXY in charts because its flucky. DXY is a "trade weighted basket" of currencies.
Ya - heres the wikipedia article
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Doll… Image
so now think about it - if Swiss (CHF) suddenly buy a ton of US treasuries, suddenly it will impact their currency - what do you think happens if they buy a lot of US 30y bonds?
Well, lets take a look...
Over the last week of december, it appears Swiss were selling US treasuries.

Then all of a sudden yesterday they decided (with other CB's) to BUY them back. Image
Every currency is a pair - USDJPY, CADEUR, etc.
DXY is different - its a kludgey ratio tht can be gamed.

Look what happened to DXY when swiss bought a ton of treasuries... (in purple)

CURRENCIES MATTER. Image
Now lets throw a stonk index on here - QQQ is one of the most sensitive to currencies and bond yields.

Look at that fkr jump around (orange)

Sometimes when i saw "swap" its also CB's dumping or buying bonds, just like this. Image
The baseball anology - from slide one.

Consider each ball a few BILLION in US treasuries.

If they sell to another CB, It skewes the DXY formula (the ratio is not even between member states).

SOME - like EU- have a MUCH bigger impact to DXY when they buy or sell treasuries. Image
If the SWISS were to buy treasuries from everyone, the swiss currency would get SUPER strong relative to every other member state - this would be TERRIBLE for swiss economy as a strong currncy kills your exports.
npr.org/2011/08/11/139…
So what these CB's are doing is COORDINATING;so no 1 member state has a currency that is too strong or too weak - a weak currency creates an unfair advantage

When you go shopping/vacation, you go where the opposing currency is CHEAP relative to your own.

expatica.com/ch/general/sw-…
Great example this morning

Anyone wanna try to explain this?
Use everything presented above.

Perfect example of how CB's are fighting oil (i mean "inflation") Image
And its effective - look at how oil moved relative to what just happened to global bonds. Image
Another perspective:

If you hold USD rn you want to go to any of the boxes in red for vacation.

Your vacation, and stuff to buy while you there just got a little cheaper.

Thats what this currency manipulation thru bonds does. Image
u now know what i know - currencies matter a lot.

DXY has been nuts lately....

lets peel back the onion and see why....
#DESPERATION Image
Tighter grain...so u can see it Image
Adding $SVIX Image
Adding global bond yields
(1) points to the swap

#MESSY_MARKETS Image

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Keep Current with Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time

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More from @frankoz95967943

Apr 18
This is the vix.

πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅ Image
The vix is a MAJOR component of the EU$ system.

This is the formula for the EU$.

I have to invert the vix for you to see the correlation clearly.

(FX:USDJPY-1/CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE*2)/FX_IDC:USDGBP/(FX_IDC:USDEUR*0.576)/(TVC:VIX*0.000001)/24000000 Image
The EU$ is made up of oil, interest rates, currencies and volatility.

Every single component of the EU$ is actively managed by central banks.

Here is the vix, vs SPY, vs the formula (green)

2nd chart zoomed in.

My EU$ formula models the market with greater than an r2 of .96 Image
Image
Read 36 tweets
Apr 18
The US is going to ban Chinese ADR's.
Its coming.

Trump needs more leverage, and this will be part of that leverage.

In prior administration he already started the process...he's going to cut china off from US capital markets completely.
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ Image
What the hell is an adr?
sec.gov/investor/alert…
You can easily find them in finviz.com
just go to filter and select ADR

finviz.com/screener.ashx?… Image
Read 27 tweets
Apr 14
This is a currency/trade/capital flows thread.

Stay with me - you will like this, but its complex....

Genomics is the study of DNA, and the RELATIONSHIPS (pay attn to that) of those genes and how they interact with each other.

πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅
DNA is like the instruction manual for building that castle. It tells your body how to grow and what it should look like. It's like a super long, twisty ladder inside tiny parts of you called cells.
Genes are like the special LEGO bricks in the instruction manual. Each gene has instructions for a specific part of you, like your eye color or how tall you might grow.
Read 19 tweets
Apr 12
There is a different way to look at the US that very people think about.

Namely, the flow of $$ from US out to the planet

When the world sends USA cheap goods, its not just deflationary,but its also massively beneficial to foreign asset h0dlrs.

This is a currency thread
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
So first of all, understand trade.
US prints money, lends it into existence in US.
People use that $$ and buy stuff, usually from abroad.

They send us cheap crap, we send them worthless pieces of paper.
Its what they do with that cash is whats important.

Do they:
a) buy us Equities?
b) buy US debt?
c) lend it to other nations who need dollars?

Most countries internally do not use USD.
Read 54 tweets
Apr 6
Lets build.

This is the US02Y bond yield.

As yields on this debt instrument goes up?
The cost of borrowing goes up.

So when that green line goes up your credit card, variable mortgage, new car loan interest rate, student loan, all goes up.

The orange line is the SPR

πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ Image
the 2y going up is NOT bullish....but it can be FAKED to MAKE it bullish.

The US did 2 things:
a) print a FUCK ton of money to sell to the world to devalue its currency
b) fucked with the vix

here is b) Image
and here is a)

The whole point of this was to devalue its way out of trouble.

Its also why you can no longer afford groceries and why your job is going overseas.

When covid hit the govt had the excuse to intervene (1)

But then they just couldnt stop spending.... (2) Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 1
In a currency war, you win by out "devaluing" your currency vs your trading partner.

You do this to gain market advantage - your products become CHEAPER than your competitor, killing your competitors industry.

The white line is china - when the white line goes up (9 of them) china devalued.

Notice that giant plunge near #4?

Notice the yellow line - thats global liquidity - and its inverted - so you can clearly see central bank interventions and its impact on the chinese currency.

G7 loaded up on debt, and out china'ed china....

Lately they stopped - because inflation now is raging.
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡Image
Remember - currencies are a RATIO.

So when chinas currency goes up on this chart - it gets WEAKER relative to USD.

Which means the USD gets STRONGER.

Stronger USD = bad for US exports, particularly to china.

It means China wins global trade vs US because everything is so cheap.Image
Tariffs equalize trade and offset this nonsense.

Tariffs make this cheap chinese export due to currency games less competitive.

US cannot control what china does, but it can control what it imports from china.

theguardian.com/us-news/2025/a…
Read 49 tweets

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