Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 6 13 tweets 5 min read
This is the text from the article mentioned below:

"The package will for the first time include radar-guided Sea Sparrow anti-air missiles, which can be launched from the sea or on land to intercept aircraft or cruise missiles. In a bit of battlefield innovation,

PSU SAM🧵

2/
...the Ukrainian military has managed to tweak its existing Soviet-era BUK launchers to fire the Sea Sparrow, two people familiar with the matter said. Up to this point, Taiwan has been the only country to operate the ground-launched version of the missiles, while...

3/
...the U.S. and multiple allied navies use the ship-mounted version."

The Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) (RIM-162) looks a whole lot like the Buk missile and the latest Blk II variant entered service in 2020 with the same active radar seeker
4/
missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/evolved…
...as the AIM-120 AMRAAM.

It is unclear which variant of the ESSM is being provided to Ukraine, but its size 3.64 m in length and 0.254 m in diameter and range of around 50 km is a good fit for the Buk physically & performance wise.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-120_A…
5/
The USA, Australia and 10 NATO navies use Sea Sparrow and the newer ESSM variants, so there is -theoretically- a deep reserve of the missile warshot to draw upon to rearm Ukrainian Buk launchers.

6/
natoseasparrow.org
The easiest ESSM to integrate into the Ukrainian Buk-M1 9A310M1 TELAR would be the ESSM Block II, as it would not need the radar illuminators to paint targets like older ESSM Block I and earlier Sea Sparrows do.

7/
The problem is there were not that many ESSM Block II built since 2020.

This video will show you the visual & performance differences between a Sea Sparrow & an ESSM Block I.

8/
The ability of an all ESSM to be placed four to a Mk 41 vertical launch cell makes them highly prized in NATO navies for the deep magazines of interceptors. While the active seeker of the Block II variant means you cannot overwhelm the 'painting'
9/
...or 'illuminating' Mk 51 radars of NATO frigates and destroyers. Thus smaller NATO surface ships can protect convoys from saturation cruise missile strikes.

The harder integration issue is getting the X-band 9S35M1 Fire Dome radar on 9A38M1 TELAR in Buk M1 system...

10/
...to mimic the Mk51 X-band illuminating radar used with the ESSM Block I and earlier Sea Sparrows.

If that is what Ukraine and it's NATO allies have kludged together.

Then Ukraine's Buk's don't have to be replaced with any NATO SAM batteries available.
11/
Ukraine's Buk's can fight the rest of the war firing old NATO Sea Sparrow/ESSM as reloads.

For which there are literally thousands sitting in NATO naval warehouses.

This is a strategic level change in the Russo-Ukrainian Air War.

12/
Russia can no longer count on running Ukraine out of surface to air missiles in 2023.

This is not a "Great Hawk Round Up" that I've mentioned before.


13/
It is something a whole lot better.

14/14 END

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 6
I've been asked by several people in my threads to take a shot at the maintenance & logistical impact of lots of new Western weapons on Ukraine's military.

Specifically, does Ukraine have the experience & personnel to move it, repair it, maintain it right now?
Logistics 🧵
1/ Image
Short form: No.

Longer form:

A lot of the Ukrainians the West has been training these last 5 months have been instructors to train Ukrainian maintainers & other logistical people to operate these new rounds of Western equipment.

2/
Related to all this training is an important thing to know on the sociology front. Ukraine has a really low GINI index. It doesn't have a huge & stratified income gap between the richest & poorest.

This means there is a deep penetration computer usage in the population.

3/
Read 18 tweets
Jan 6
This is a quick update to my earlier Sea Sparrow thread.

We have a publicly well documented candidate on how Ukraine got Sea Sparrow for its Buk launchers.

The most likely candidate is a tech transfer from Poland.

1/5
Back in 2012 Raytheon & Poland worked together for an upgrade of the of Poland's 2K12 Kub, NATO code name SA-6B, SAM system with the Raytheon Evolved Sea Sparrow (ESSM) missile.
2/5
armyrecognition.com/mspo_2012_show… Image
These are 2012 pictures from the Army Recognition web site of the 2K12 tricked out with ESSM.

It was called the Pelican in this configuration.

3/5 ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Jan 5
The amazing thing about the Russo-Ukrainian War is that if World War 2 had an intellectual property lawyer.

That IP lawyer would have been run ragged with all the cease and desist orders.

Below is another case in point, Russia's new unguided glide bomb

1/9
WW2 tech today🧵
First spotted by @oryxspioenkop and later analyzed by @thewarzonewire.

Russia has developed a stand off glide bomb package for the area bombing of Ukrainian cities.

2/9

This is not a new idea.

It is a WW2 idea.

Russia has reinvented the 2,000 lb Aeronca Aircraft GB-1, also known as the "Grapefruit bomb."

B-17's could carry a pair on external wing hardpoints and a B-25 could carry one under its bomb bay.
3/9
Read 10 tweets
Jan 5
A propeller drone moving 80 knots can cover 200 kilometers in an hour and 21 minutes.

Any prop-drone with 3 hours endurance in the air can inspect at target at 200km distance from its launch point for ~15 minutes while flying at 80 knots economical cruising speed.

1/4
The Ukrspecsystems Shark is designed to loiter at 60km inside enemy territory for radio line of sight reasons.

It is a good fit as a forward observer sensor platform for a Vilkha-M or a HIMARS launched GMLRS.

2/4

technology.org/2022/11/10/ukr…
The Ukrspecsystems Shark drone has demonstrated in promotional videos the ability to lock on and follow a moving vehicle target for long distances.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jan 5
I just pulled up the daily Ukrainian Ministry of Defense kill claims covering 29 December 2022 through 4 January 2023.

The number was 5,130 Russian combat deaths.

Casualty & Winter Mobile Campaign🧵
1/11
Daily counts:
29 Dec - 790
30 Dec - 690
31 Dec - 710
01 Jan - 760
02 Jan - 720
03 Jan - 740
04 Jan - 720

2/11
The AFU is continuing with its "death of a thousand cuts" deep interdiction campaign against ammo storage, POL storage, HQ elements, and has now extended it in a systematic way to Russian personnel concentrations.
3/11
Read 11 tweets
Jan 4
The idea that Washington DC and the American military was better at keeping secrets in WW2 than today is a myth, as this blog post makes clear.

JANUARY 4, 2023
BREACHES OF SECURITY
OFFICERS AND OFFICIALS WHO TALKED A BIT TOO SPECIFICALLY
1/7
marshallfoundation.org/articles-and-f…
This is the 15 Jan 1944 to Adm Leahy, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
2/7 Image
This is the list of officials who leaked the Radar secret from April thru Sept-Oct 1943.

It includes one of the JCS, Gen. H. H. Arnold.
3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets

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