Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Jan 6, 2023 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
In today's #vatnik soup I'm going to talk about conspiracy theories and the people who believe in them. These theories are an explanation for an event that's orchestrated by powerful and often hidden groups.

1/15
Conspiracy theories are often political and they're even more often explained with insufficient evidence.

Douglas & Sutton (2011) concluded that belief in conspiracies correlates with lower analytical thinking, low intelligence, paranoia and Machiavellianism.

2/15
2022 meta-analysis by Stasielowicz
supports this, adding that conspiracy theorists often believe in pseudoscience, are narcissistic or religious/spiritual and have relatively low cognitive ability. Douglas et al. (2017) stated that conspiracy theories correlate strongly ... 3/15
...with two emotions: anxiety and disenfranchisement (the feeling of being deprived of a privilege).

A 2017 paper by van Prooijen, Douglas & De Inocencio also found correlation between conspiracy theorists and a phenomenon called "apophenia" or "illusory pattern perception".4/15
It is a tendency to find connections between unrelated things. We often try to find patterns in order to explain the surrounding world to ourselves, but these people go WAY beyond, finding patterns everywhere. 5/15
Good examples of pattern seeking is the constant search for the number 666 or decoding QAnon codes and cryptic messages. However, many cognitive scientists consider conspiracy theorizing to be a nonpathological and may just be our innate drive to gossip. 6/15
Conspiracy theories that spread virally can have grave consequences: AIDS denialism through conspiracy theories led to over 300 000 AIDS deaths in South Africa, QAnon led to the US Capitol attack, and conspiracy theories regarding GMO food led to serious famine in Zambia. 7/15
Many terrorists, including Anders Breivik and Timothy McVeigh
were also strongly influenced by conspiracy theories. 8/15
Conspiracy theories used to be limited to fringe communities like zines, early Bulletin Board Systems or small social groups, but Internet and especially social media brought them to mainstream. 9/15
Social media algorithms prioritize user engagement over user safety, thus providing conspiracy theory rabbit holes to keep the users on these platforms. They are then
spread further by troll farms and foreign state actors in order to polarize and agitate.

10/15
In 2020 poll by NPR/Ipsos, 17% of the US population believed in QAnon and 37% were "not sure" if it's real or not. The number for mass shooting hoaxes was 12%/27%, and for moon landing conspiracy theory 8%/20%.

11/15
Michael Barkun has divided conspiracy theories into three distinct categories: event (e.g. Kennedy assasination or 9/11), systemic (Freemasons, WEF, etc.) or superconspiracy (e.g. QAnon,
Icke's "Son of the Godhead" or Hubbard's "Xenu").

12/15
The problem with arguing with conspiracy theorists is that their theories can't be falsified and are reinforced by arguments that are also false. Also, both evidence against the theory and the absence of such evidence are re-interpreted as evidence of its truth.

13/15
Successful propaganda and disinfo campaigns have also lowered people's trust towards mainstream media and the state, and conspiracy theorists often mock and criticize these establishments.

14/15
Today's conspiracy theories are much more powerful and dangerous tools as they can spread fast and wide via the web. For example QAnon has spread around the world, and there are sects for example in Japan, Finland, Russia, Australia and Brazil.

15/15

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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Jul 1
In today’s Wumao Soup, I’ll introduce how and where the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) online propaganda and influence operations work. Due to China’s massive population and advances in AI, CCP-aligned online content has become increasingly visible.

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Like Russia’s troll farms, China has its own troll army: the “50 Cent Party” or “Wumao” refers to state-linked online commentators who are reportedly paid ¥0.50 per post to steer discussions away from criticism and amplify CCP narratives on social media.

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Back in 2017, a research paper estimated that the Wumao produced almost 500 million fabricated comments annually to distract readers and shift topics. In that sense, Wumao operates very similarly to the Russian “Firehose of Falsehood” model:

3/20

Read 21 tweets
Jun 26
In today’s Vatnik Soup and the “Degenerate Russia” series, I’ll show you the brutal reality of Russian war crimes, in particular the horrific tortures and sexual abuses of children, women and men.

Buckle up, this one is not for the faint-hearted.

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For over a decade now and as part of their “firehose of falsehood” propaganda strategy, Russia has been spreading false narratives targeted at right-wing/conservative audiences, portraying russia as a bastion of Christian, traditional,family values.

2/24

In the previous “degenerate Russia” series we discussed Russia’s insanely high divorce rates, rampant domestic violence, high murder rates, thriving neo-Nazi culture, corruption of the Orthodox Church, and their massive demographic problem:

3/24

Read 26 tweets
Jun 24
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll explore how Russia is working with Iran, and how the recent Israel–US strikes on Iran could affect the war in Ukraine. Iran has been one of Russia’s key allies in their genocidal war, but in reality the partnership is deeply one-sided.

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Historically, Russia/USSR has been involved in numerous wars in the Middle East, invading Afghanistan for nearly a decade and desperately trying to keep Syria’s authoritarian leader, al-Assad, in power before his eventual downfall.

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While initially supportive of Israel, the Soviet Union quickly pivoted to backing its enemies, fueling antisemitism, terrorism, and chaos in an already tense region. At times, this meant near-open war, like when Soviet Air Force MiG-21s were shot down by Israel over Egypt.

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Read 22 tweets
Jun 20
In today’s Vatnik Soup REBREW, I’ll re-introduce a Latvian politician and former MEP, Tatjana Ždanoka. She’s best-known for her history in the Communist Party of Latvia, for her pro-Russian politics in the country, and her connections to Russian intelligence.

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Based on Ždanoka’s speeches and social media posts, she has a deep hatred towards the people of Latvia. The reason for this can only be speculated, but part of it could be due to her paternal family being killed by the Latvian Auxiliary Police,…

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…a paramilitary force supported by the Nazis, during the early 1940s. Ždanoka became politically active in the late 80s. She was one of the leaders of Interfront, a political party that supported Latvia remaining part of the USSR.

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Read 23 tweets
Jun 16
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce the main themes of Russian disinformation on TikTok. Each day, there are thousands of new videos promoting pro-Kremlin narratives and propaganda.

It’s worth noting that Russians can only access European TikTok via VPN.

1/10
There is currently a massive TikTok campaign aimed at promoting a positive image of Russia. The videos typically feature relatively attractive young women and focus on themes of nationalism and cultural heritage.

2/10
Ironically, many of these videos from Moscow or St. Petersburg are deceptively edited to portray Ukraine in a false light — claiming there is no war and that international aid is being funneled to corrupt elites.

3/10
Read 11 tweets
Jun 8
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll talk about Finland and how pro-Kremlin propagandists have become more active in the Finnish political space since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. For the first time since 2022, they’ve gained some political power in Finland.

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Russia’s political strategy in countries with Russian-speaking minorities (such as Finland and the Baltics) is typically quite similar: it seeks to rally these minorities around issues like language and minority rights, and then frames the situation as oppression.

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At the same time, Russian speakers are extremely wary and skeptical of local media, and instead tend to follow Russian domestic outlets like Russia-1 and NTV, thereby reinforcing an almost impenetrable information bubble.

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Read 17 tweets

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