In today's #vatnik soup I'm going to talk about conspiracy theories and the people who believe in them. These theories are an explanation for an event that's orchestrated by powerful and often hidden groups.
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Conspiracy theories are often political and they're even more often explained with insufficient evidence.
Douglas & Sutton (2011) concluded that belief in conspiracies correlates with lower analytical thinking, low intelligence, paranoia and Machiavellianism.
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2022 meta-analysis by Stasielowicz
supports this, adding that conspiracy theorists often believe in pseudoscience, are narcissistic or religious/spiritual and have relatively low cognitive ability. Douglas et al. (2017) stated that conspiracy theories correlate strongly ... 3/15
...with two emotions: anxiety and disenfranchisement (the feeling of being deprived of a privilege).
A 2017 paper by van Prooijen, Douglas & De Inocencio also found correlation between conspiracy theorists and a phenomenon called "apophenia" or "illusory pattern perception".4/15
It is a tendency to find connections between unrelated things. We often try to find patterns in order to explain the surrounding world to ourselves, but these people go WAY beyond, finding patterns everywhere. 5/15
Good examples of pattern seeking is the constant search for the number 666 or decoding QAnon codes and cryptic messages. However, many cognitive scientists consider conspiracy theorizing to be a nonpathological and may just be our innate drive to gossip. 6/15
Conspiracy theories that spread virally can have grave consequences: AIDS denialism through conspiracy theories led to over 300 000 AIDS deaths in South Africa, QAnon led to the US Capitol attack, and conspiracy theories regarding GMO food led to serious famine in Zambia. 7/15
Many terrorists, including Anders Breivik and Timothy McVeigh
were also strongly influenced by conspiracy theories. 8/15
Conspiracy theories used to be limited to fringe communities like zines, early Bulletin Board Systems or small social groups, but Internet and especially social media brought them to mainstream. 9/15
Social media algorithms prioritize user engagement over user safety, thus providing conspiracy theory rabbit holes to keep the users on these platforms. They are then
spread further by troll farms and foreign state actors in order to polarize and agitate.
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In 2020 poll by NPR/Ipsos, 17% of the US population believed in QAnon and 37% were "not sure" if it's real or not. The number for mass shooting hoaxes was 12%/27%, and for moon landing conspiracy theory 8%/20%.
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Michael Barkun has divided conspiracy theories into three distinct categories: event (e.g. Kennedy assasination or 9/11), systemic (Freemasons, WEF, etc.) or superconspiracy (e.g. QAnon,
Icke's "Son of the Godhead" or Hubbard's "Xenu").
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The problem with arguing with conspiracy theorists is that their theories can't be falsified and are reinforced by arguments that are also false. Also, both evidence against the theory and the absence of such evidence are re-interpreted as evidence of its truth.
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Successful propaganda and disinfo campaigns have also lowered people's trust towards mainstream media and the state, and conspiracy theorists often mock and criticize these establishments.
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Today's conspiracy theories are much more powerful and dangerous tools as they can spread fast and wide via the web. For example QAnon has spread around the world, and there are sects for example in Japan, Finland, Russia, Australia and Brazil.
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In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce an American politician and disbarred lawyer, Rudy Giuliani (@RudyGiuliani). He’s best-known for meddling with the pro-Kremlin forces in Ukraine, and for organizing the infamous Four Seasons Landscaping press conference.
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Giuliani rose to fame as the mayor of NYC between 1994 and 2001. He adopted an aggressive enforcement strategy and organized crackdowns on relatively minor offenses like graffiti and cannabis possession. His role in the 9/11 aftermath made him a global superstar.
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This fame gave Rudy new opportunities, and in 2006 he was invited to the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group (ISG), a group that assessed the situation in Iraq. He was soon kicked out of the group due to being more interested in making money by public speaking gigs.
In today’s 300th #vatniksoup, I’ll go through some of the most heroic feats that Ukrainians have achieved since Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
In the last 900 days, under-equipped underdog Ukraine has fared well against the imperialist and genocidal Russia.
1/23
As in most conflicts, Ukraine relies heavily on leadership. For this reason, the Kremlin first focused their main propaganda efforts on Zelenskyy, even claiming that he had already fled from Ukraine to Poland. Soon after these allegations, Zelenskyy and his cabinet…
2/23
… published a video from the streets of Kyiv to fight this propaganda campaign. This video quickly became one of the biggest morale boosters for Ukraine, and it has become one of the most legendary and symbolic videos of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce a British far-right activist, Tommy Robinson (@TRobinsonNewEra). He’s best-known for his role in the far-right, Islamophobic organizations like the English Defence League (EDL) and his close connections to the Kremlin.
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Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, was born in Luton and during his youth delved into a life of crime, serving four prison terms between 2005 and 2019. He used several pseudonyms to hide his criminal past, finally sticking to Tommy Robinson.
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Tommy joined the fascist and far-right British National Party (BNP) in 2004 but left a year later. The party didn’t allow non-whites to join and was then led by Nick Griffin, who today is better known for sharing video game footage while claiming it’s real.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce an American politician and author, JD Vance (@JDVance). He’s best-known for his strong stance against US aid to Ukraine, and for being the Republican party’s nominee for vice president in the 2024 election.
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Vance hails from the small town of Middletown, Ohio. His parents divorced when he was a toddler, JD’s mother struggled with drug addiction, and he was raised primarily by his grandparents. Later he enlisted in the US Marine Corps, and spent 6 months as a PR guy in Iraq.
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In 2016, Harper published JD’s book, Hillbilly Elegy, in which he described his life and hardships, and the socioeconomic problems of his hometown. The book was very successful, and it was even adapted into a shitty Netflix movie. It also made JD famous.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll discuss the Wagner Group, its founders Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, and the mutiny they started on 23 Jun 2023. The event marked the climax of the Wagner Group–Russian MoD conflict, and finally led to the deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin.
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Wagner has been used in many conflicts around the world, but they came to global prominence during the war in Donbas in 2014-2015. Wagnerites helped the Donbas separatists fight against the Ukrainians during the conflict, which helped Putin to “outsource” the insurrection.
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The group doesn’t have any central ideology, but many of its members and leaders have ties to various neo—Nazi movements in Russia. For example, Wagner leader Dmitry Utkin had several Nazi symbols tattooed on his body. Neo—nazi group Rusich has also fights as part of Wagner.
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In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce an Amsterdam-based propaganda channel, Bonanza Media (@bonanzamedia2). It’s best-known for producing & spreading online pro-Kremlin propaganda videos while closely coordinating & collaborating with the Russian intelligence agency GRU.
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Russian intelligence has been extremely active in the Netherlands for a long time. For example in 2018, four GRU agents were caught while trying to hack into OPCW,an organization that monitors the use of chemical weapons. In addition, the International Criminal Court (ICC)…
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…and the MH17 investigation have become targets for the Russian intelligence and propaganda operations. These operations are often complemented with “investigative journalism” media outlets, that often echo the Kremlin’s propaganda and disinformation.