Despite modest negative revisions in the prior two months (-28k), the December #jobsreport beat expectations on job growth for the past month at +223,000 new jobs create as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. bls.gov/news.release/a…
It's a strong jobs report but closely aligned with expectations, which were for +200k last month. The unemployment rate was expected to move from 3.6 to 3.7 and instead moved to 3.5. Basically, it's in line with what was expected, which is why the Fed is still mad.
Professor Wolfers is smarter than me and he's putting a high gloss finish on the jobs data. You can definitely make an unambiguously good case! Anyone who says this is a bad report (or that it was expected to be bad) is stupid or just flat lying.
Even if last month had been in-line with median forecasts, we'd be looking at a 3-month rolling average of ~240k jobs per month and unemployment rate near historic lows. As it some happens, the real report was a bit better.

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More from @Craigipedia

Jan 6
Dragging a man out of the hospital and forcing him to vote in-person... for the sake of precedent!
Read 4 tweets
Dec 9, 2022
I just don't understand this. Democratic voters *hate* her. If Dems stand back and let her go up against the GOP, she loses. Whereas, if they run their own candidate, she comes in a distant third. What logic prevents the Democrats from running their own candidate?
Campaigns are bigger than just the outcome. Who is going to train Democratic volunteers and organize activists in a key swing state over the next 2 years? Who is going to motivate grassroots donors to sustain the state party? A person who isn't a Democrat?
Arizona is not Alaska or Utah. Everyone making that comparison is building in a pretty wild assumption. Dems might stand by and pray for an independent candidate in Nebraska in 2024 like they did in Kansas in 2014... but Arizona?
Read 7 tweets
Nov 16, 2022
Here's how American news outlets framed the announcement from disgraced ex-president Donald Trump that he would once again seek elected office 🧵 1/
The Washington Post highlights that Trump faces "multiple criminal investigations" and notes that he refused to accept the outcome of the 2020 election, which he lost. 2/ Image
NPR tags Trump for refusing to concede and fomenting a deadly insurrection. Keep it up. 3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 12, 2022
On Election Night, CNN’s political panel was literally calling for Joe Biden to retire.

Tonight, they’ve finally caught up to the news that Democrats won.
When on November 9, a full 24 hours after it became clear that Democrats had the best midterm in generations… the CNN panel thought Biden was toast. More than that, they were angry that he wasn’t more conciliatory to the fascists.
It’s not just that CNN’s expert panel didn’t seem to notice the election happening all around them, they also seemed to think we lived in a completely different county with an opposition party that wants to accomplish things that help people.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 10, 2022
I have to thank @chrislhayes for broadcasting the most satisfying 2-minutes of television I've watched today. A perfect encapsulation of what Fox News has looked like over the past several months.
I was commenting with my colleagues in the past few days how Fox News was *really* out over their skiis on their midterm coverage. They were palpably celebratory on air in their "straight news" a week ago. Fox News all day Monday was doing Democratic midterm post mortem analysis.
Full disclosure: I was definitely worried about the midterms! I didn't think it would look like 2014 or 2010, but I was worried it would be a series of tight heartbreaking losses similar to 2016.

As it turns out, nearly all of the tightest races went to the Democrats.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 9, 2022
Elon Musk clearly has no idea how Twitter works. It's kind of amazing how little he understands.
He keeps restating that charging $8 for verification will discourage creating bot accounts. Dude, there aren't any verified bot accounts right now! Unless he starts charging for *all* accounts, the free users will still exist and the free bots will still exist.
Musk is fixated on turning Twitter into a payment service, where people can use their Twitter accounts to invest in "high yield money market" products.

WHY would anyone do that, Elon!?
Read 4 tweets

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