Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 6 7 tweets 3 min read
This is a quick update to my earlier Sea Sparrow thread.

We have a publicly well documented candidate on how Ukraine got Sea Sparrow for its Buk launchers.

The most likely candidate is a tech transfer from Poland.

1/5
Back in 2012 Raytheon & Poland worked together for an upgrade of the of Poland's 2K12 Kub, NATO code name SA-6B, SAM system with the Raytheon Evolved Sea Sparrow (ESSM) missile.
2/5
armyrecognition.com/mspo_2012_show…
These are 2012 pictures from the Army Recognition web site of the 2K12 tricked out with ESSM.

It was called the Pelican in this configuration.

3/5
The text of the article talks about how ESSM was tested by being fired from a NASAMS launcher with the X-band MIM-23 Hawk 21 high powered radar illuminator.

So, theoretically NASAMS, Aspide, and now the Ukrainian Buk can draw upon NATO's stocks of older Sea Sparrow plus ESSM
4/5
So it is going to utterly suck rocks to be a Russian VKS pilot for the rest of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

There are going to be a lot of Cold War surplus NATO Sea Sparrows waiting for them to show up in Ukrainian air space.😈

5/5
P.S.

Hat Tip to @LIM49Spartan for finding that old Army Recognition web post.
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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 6
I've been asked by several people in my threads to take a shot at the maintenance & logistical impact of lots of new Western weapons on Ukraine's military.

Specifically, does Ukraine have the experience & personnel to move it, repair it, maintain it right now?
Logistics 🧵
1/ Image
Short form: No.

Longer form:

A lot of the Ukrainians the West has been training these last 5 months have been instructors to train Ukrainian maintainers & other logistical people to operate these new rounds of Western equipment.

2/
Related to all this training is an important thing to know on the sociology front. Ukraine has a really low GINI index. It doesn't have a huge & stratified income gap between the richest & poorest.

This means there is a deep penetration computer usage in the population.

3/
Read 18 tweets
Jan 6
This is the text from the article mentioned below:

"The package will for the first time include radar-guided Sea Sparrow anti-air missiles, which can be launched from the sea or on land to intercept aircraft or cruise missiles. In a bit of battlefield innovation,

PSU SAM🧵

2/
...the Ukrainian military has managed to tweak its existing Soviet-era BUK launchers to fire the Sea Sparrow, two people familiar with the matter said. Up to this point, Taiwan has been the only country to operate the ground-launched version of the missiles, while...

3/
...the U.S. and multiple allied navies use the ship-mounted version."

The Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) (RIM-162) looks a whole lot like the Buk missile and the latest Blk II variant entered service in 2020 with the same active radar seeker
4/
missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/evolved…
Read 13 tweets
Jan 5
The amazing thing about the Russo-Ukrainian War is that if World War 2 had an intellectual property lawyer.

That IP lawyer would have been run ragged with all the cease and desist orders.

Below is another case in point, Russia's new unguided glide bomb

1/9
WW2 tech today🧵
First spotted by @oryxspioenkop and later analyzed by @thewarzonewire.

Russia has developed a stand off glide bomb package for the area bombing of Ukrainian cities.

2/9

This is not a new idea.

It is a WW2 idea.

Russia has reinvented the 2,000 lb Aeronca Aircraft GB-1, also known as the "Grapefruit bomb."

B-17's could carry a pair on external wing hardpoints and a B-25 could carry one under its bomb bay.
3/9
Read 10 tweets
Jan 5
A propeller drone moving 80 knots can cover 200 kilometers in an hour and 21 minutes.

Any prop-drone with 3 hours endurance in the air can inspect at target at 200km distance from its launch point for ~15 minutes while flying at 80 knots economical cruising speed.

1/4
The Ukrspecsystems Shark is designed to loiter at 60km inside enemy territory for radio line of sight reasons.

It is a good fit as a forward observer sensor platform for a Vilkha-M or a HIMARS launched GMLRS.

2/4

technology.org/2022/11/10/ukr…
The Ukrspecsystems Shark drone has demonstrated in promotional videos the ability to lock on and follow a moving vehicle target for long distances.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jan 5
I just pulled up the daily Ukrainian Ministry of Defense kill claims covering 29 December 2022 through 4 January 2023.

The number was 5,130 Russian combat deaths.

Casualty & Winter Mobile Campaign🧵
1/11
Daily counts:
29 Dec - 790
30 Dec - 690
31 Dec - 710
01 Jan - 760
02 Jan - 720
03 Jan - 740
04 Jan - 720

2/11
The AFU is continuing with its "death of a thousand cuts" deep interdiction campaign against ammo storage, POL storage, HQ elements, and has now extended it in a systematic way to Russian personnel concentrations.
3/11
Read 11 tweets
Jan 4
The idea that Washington DC and the American military was better at keeping secrets in WW2 than today is a myth, as this blog post makes clear.

JANUARY 4, 2023
BREACHES OF SECURITY
OFFICERS AND OFFICIALS WHO TALKED A BIT TOO SPECIFICALLY
1/7
marshallfoundation.org/articles-and-f…
This is the 15 Jan 1944 to Adm Leahy, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
2/7 Image
This is the list of officials who leaked the Radar secret from April thru Sept-Oct 1943.

It includes one of the JCS, Gen. H. H. Arnold.
3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets

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