I've been asked by several people in my threads to take a shot at the maintenance & logistical impact of lots of new Western weapons on Ukraine's military.
Specifically, does Ukraine have the experience & personnel to move it, repair it, maintain it right now?
Logistics 🧵
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Specifically, does Ukraine have the experience & personnel to move it, repair it, maintain it right now?
Logistics 🧵
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Short form: No.
Longer form:
A lot of the Ukrainians the West has been training these last 5 months have been instructors to train Ukrainian maintainers & other logistical people to operate these new rounds of Western equipment.
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Longer form:
A lot of the Ukrainians the West has been training these last 5 months have been instructors to train Ukrainian maintainers & other logistical people to operate these new rounds of Western equipment.
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Related to all this training is an important thing to know on the sociology front. Ukraine has a really low GINI index. It doesn't have a huge & stratified income gap between the richest & poorest.
This means there is a deep penetration computer usage in the population.
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This means there is a deep penetration computer usage in the population.
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Most of my DLA/DCMC/DCMA government career it was "you need x years of experience with our Mechanization of Contract Administration Services (MOCAS) software" for contracts & staff jobs.
Those Federal supervisors were mirror imaging their experience from before 1990
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Those Federal supervisors were mirror imaging their experience from before 1990
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...when computers were mainframe & mini-computers that were rare, cost thousands and were found in only one or two places.
In 2023 everyone aged 45 and under effectively can be trained in a week tops on computer systems.
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In 2023 everyone aged 45 and under effectively can be trained in a week tops on computer systems.
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2023 is simply not like 1990 & earlier.
When you really did want experience in computers. Since they were expensive, finicky and could be broken, horribly, by people who didn't know them.
This dynamic applies in 🇺🇦 because they had deep societal penetration of computers
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When you really did want experience in computers. Since they were expensive, finicky and could be broken, horribly, by people who didn't know them.
This dynamic applies in 🇺🇦 because they had deep societal penetration of computers
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...in young Ukrainians in a way Russia didn't because Russian oil money was never shared with the wider society.
The USA has the same income stratifications as Russia due to the world's largest financial market values, but total US wealth is much higher so everyone has
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The USA has the same income stratifications as Russia due to the world's largest financial market values, but total US wealth is much higher so everyone has
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...a smartphone or computer.
I've used this meme several times to capture this 'computer sociology' of Ukrainian soldiers maintaining all the newest Western 155mm SP artillery.
AFU has small number of the Polish Krab, Franch Caesar, German Pzh2000, US-Norwegian M109A3G &
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I've used this meme several times to capture this 'computer sociology' of Ukrainian soldiers maintaining all the newest Western 155mm SP artillery.
AFU has small number of the Polish Krab, Franch Caesar, German Pzh2000, US-Norwegian M109A3G &
8/
...Czech Dana SP howitzers and are simply saying "More please" as they shoot out the barrels at the Russians.
As a then 50 something teaching 25-to-30 something DCMA new hires in government computer systems, this effect was rubbed in my face quite often.
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As a then 50 something teaching 25-to-30 something DCMA new hires in government computer systems, this effect was rubbed in my face quite often.
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The thing to remember is that Ukraine is maintaining 45 years worth of different Soviet tank designs, the T-62, T-64, T-72, T-80, and T-90. There are 5 different tanks with 4 different autoloaders, 3 different engines, including a turbine, & huge differences in fire
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...controls. None of these tanks are particularly easy to maintain.
The T-72 engine, the most common design, comes in different power levels based on the quality control of its particular build.
The lowest powered ones being on T-72 hulls used in engineering & recovery
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The T-72 engine, the most common design, comes in different power levels based on the quality control of its particular build.
The lowest powered ones being on T-72 hulls used in engineering & recovery
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...variants.
And Ukraine has captured 1,000 Russian tanks, many out of deep reserves, of every conceivable variation.
Transitioning to newer Western vehicles is EASY because they were built to have lower maintenance hours because volunteer soldiers were more expensive
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And Ukraine has captured 1,000 Russian tanks, many out of deep reserves, of every conceivable variation.
Transitioning to newer Western vehicles is EASY because they were built to have lower maintenance hours because volunteer soldiers were more expensive
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....per hour than a conscript.
Western combat vehicles have a higher up front expense in part because western nations spend a lot of money during development making their vehicles easier to maintain.
Adding more space under armor for access panels to be able to fix things
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Western combat vehicles have a higher up front expense in part because western nations spend a lot of money during development making their vehicles easier to maintain.
Adding more space under armor for access panels to be able to fix things
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...is expensive in terms of up front cost.
But if it saves 5,000 maintenance hours over a tank's 20 year service life, and has a 15% higher serviceability rate to train crews. That is a bargain.
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But if it saves 5,000 maintenance hours over a tank's 20 year service life, and has a 15% higher serviceability rate to train crews. That is a bargain.
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This is a total cost of ownership thing.
The West tries to make the cost of operations a metric as a part of weapons development.
The Russians don't go there because, "free" conscripts.
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The West tries to make the cost of operations a metric as a part of weapons development.
The Russians don't go there because, "free" conscripts.
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Computer literate Ukrainian maintainers take all the DVD's & USB drives filled with PDF files of Western weapons manuals, run a English/French/German to Ukrainian language translation software and have at it.
New Western weapons are simply easier for computer literate
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New Western weapons are simply easier for computer literate
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...Ukrainians to maintain than the left over & ever changing Ex-Soviet junk heap they have been fighting with since 24 Feb 2022.
The announcements like the one at the beginning of this 🧵are usually preceded by a lot of training and logistics we just don't see.
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The announcements like the one at the beginning of this 🧵are usually preceded by a lot of training and logistics we just don't see.
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There is a lot more to war than fighting.
Logistics is literally everything except the shooting & killing.
This thread was written to teach you to understand these 'soft factors' at work in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
19/19 End
Logistics is literally everything except the shooting & killing.
This thread was written to teach you to understand these 'soft factors' at work in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
19/19 End
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