Here is a hot take. Yes, Texas voting restrictions made it more challenging to vote, but certainly not insurmountable (8 million figured it out). I think the more people talked about how hard it was to vote, it probably did more harm to Dems chances than good.
For someone who aligned with Dems but wasn’t crazy passionate to vote (as the crazy passionate likely did get to the polls), when the broad dialogue keeps with the negative “it’s going to be so hard”, I think that almost instantly pushes that maybe voter to a non-voter.
Yes, it was made harder to vote in Texas. But by hammering that point over and over, I believe it demotivated maybe voters who decided to stay home.
Instead, we should have been messaging “here is the easy way to vote” and actually established infrastructure to make that true.
Three main things that led to the outcomes in the TX Statewide races for Dems.
1. "There were 754,890 voters with previous Democratic Primary history who did not vote in this election [in Texas]." (731k R's didn't show, but R #'s are ⬆️)
2. [In Texas,] "923,023 individuals aged 18 to 29 voted, yet there were 3,656,849 registered voters in that age range. That means 75% of 18- to 29-year-olds stayed home this year."
"Registered voters aged 18 to 29 made up only 11% of all votes cast."
(all 🧵data @longhornderek)
3. "In Texas, there were 549,812 people with a registration date after the Dobbs opinion’s official release (June 24th)."
"Only 47.7% of the 549,812 post-Dobbs registrants ended up voting this year."
When something bad happens and people immediately rush forward and say “they are a good person”, “I know the family”, and “facts matter”, but you haven’t actually seen the story, read the article, heard the facts, you are merely rallying around your sameness.
The “good person” / “I know the family” stance is purely anecdotal, as in your personal interactions with them, they may have been positive, but you have no inside knowledge of anything else about the individual, how they interact with others, the decisions they make.
When you chime in with “Don’t know the story”, that means you don’t know those facts. When reporting is done by real news organizations, there are facts, there are receipts, there are interviews. After the reporting, you either see accountability or sweeping things under the rug.
The numbers above show that yes, turnout in Texas was down everywhere: urban, suburban, rural. But in 2022 vs 2018, the biggest counties lost more in turnout %, and a lot more voters, ceding ground to the rural spaces that vote ever more red, who actually gained votes overall.
Look at the difference in Registered Voters from 2018 to 2022, and then at the Votes Casts from 2018 to 2022 across the 10 largest counties.
What is driving Republican voters? It ain't the economy / inflation / gas prices.
60% of Republicans peg Immigration / Border as their most important issue.
It's the xenophobic fear driven rhetoric about the brown people coming. The racism shines through as the clarion call.
Who can we turn to?
From the write up: "the October poll shows that the likely voter pool contains very few Republicans who appear open to voting for Democrats" and "there aren’t very many persuadable GOP voters"
So quit tilting at GOP windmills and get the young people to vote!
“The government will have to become, in the hands of conservatives, an instrument of renewal in American life — and in some cases, a blunt instrument indeed.”
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