One thing WotC is likely missing with the new OGL 1.1:
Tightly restricting the 3pp market for D&D is going to cause a huge drain of the talent pool for D&D writers, including the ones that WotC hires, which will directly harm WotC's ability to produce content.
I'm not an RPG product creator, so my understanding is limited to what people have told me about their own experiences.
I'm sure I have some of this wrong, so if you know better, please correct me.
My understanding is that it's a hard career, and people who do this full time are mostly freelancers. Most of the work is contracts, and you need to both work multiple contracts and constantly seek out your next projects. You see the same names in credits in a lot of projects.
Even folks who work full time for a TTRPG company often moonlight doing contracts for other projects.
WotC is an exception, from what I understand: their full-time employees don't get to moonlight, but they're also paid enough that they can afford not to. But that's only FTEs.
When WotC creates a new D&D product, many of the people whose names you see in the credits are working on contracts. Some of them get to work multiple contracts for WotC over time.
But that's not a full time job for most people. Outside of the handful of WotC contracts, those writers work for other companies or publish stuff on their own both to develop their skills+resume with the system and to keep the lights on.
WotC doesn't generally hire amateurs. They generally don't grab inexperience D&D writers to work on their products, because that results in bad, amateur-ish products.
(Radiant Citadel had a few authors who had neve written D&D adventures before alongside experienced writers)
So where does WotC find these creators to work contracts or to hire full time?
They're writing OGL products.
Sure, there are also people writing on DMsGuild, but that's both a relatively recent thing (2016). 5e was on the market for 2+ years before that, and OGL 1.0a was launched in 2000.
DMsGuild also makes it hard to earn a living because they keep 50% of sales.
Outside of DMsGuild, creators are building their skills writing with the OGL for companies like Baldman Games, Green Ronin, Kobold Press, MCDM, Mage Hand Press, Hitpoint Press, and smaller outfits.
That experience makes them valuable to WotC, so WotC has a deep talent pool.
Sometimes WotC even hires OGL publishers wholesale.
Do you know who wrote Rise of Tiamat / Hoard of the Dragon Queen? Kobold Press.
The first designer listed in the screenshot above is Wolfgang Baur (@monkeyking), CEO of Kobold Press. He's also credited as a designer on Ghosts of Saltmarsh.
You might also notice James Introcaso (@JamesIntrocaso) credited on Saltmarsh. He also worked on Waterdeep: Dragonheist, Dungeon of the Mad Mage, and Descent into Avernus.
Where does he work now? He's lead designer at @HelloMCDM (Kingdoms and Warfare, etc.).
MCDM is all OGL.
A casual player might say "I don't know those people are," and that's understandable. I don't know who wrote my favorite movies.
Mercer wrote it alongside Hannah Rose (@wildrosemage, now at MCDM) and James Haeck (@jamesjhaeck, now at Ghostfire).
Rose: Editor on Avernus, Witchlight, editing/writing on Candlekeep.
Haeck: Designer on Dragon Heist & Avernuss
To reiterate my previous point:
Where does WotC find these creators to work contracts or to hire full time? They're making OGL products.
And where do they go when contracts end? Right back to OGL products.
This is a great setup for WotC. When they need capacity, there's a deep pool of skilled, experienced, talented people. Those people can make a living working OGL products, and might never be lucky enough to get hired by WotC, but WotC always has a pool to draw from.
But what happens when WotC drains that pool with OGL 1.1?
Publishing under 1.1 is extremely unappealing. You can't share content like 1.0, AND WotC eats your lunch if you're lucky enough to break $750k in a year.
So the OGL creators go away.
OGL publishers may either go out of business or pivot to other systems. Either way, people stop writing for D&D. No one is building proficiency with the system. No one knows how to write specifically for #OneDnD.
There's no more talent pool for WotC to pull from.
So when WotC needs to hire contractors for a new product, where do they go? There's no pool of experienced professionals. Sure, they can hire from DMsGuild, but most of those folks either do that as a hobby or in addition to OGL work or work on other systems. The pool is shallow.
I don't think that the D&D design team wants this to happen. The industry is small, and many of the experienced names are friends. I've heard "my friend X at competing company Y" a lot.
I don't think designers at WotC want to put their friends out of work. Don't blame them.
I expect that WotC will struggle to find experienced contractors almost immediately as those creators pivot to other systems and let D&D-specific skills atrophy, or worse, creators will leave the industry because they can't make ends meet.
No one wins here. Everyone loses.
OGL 1.0a has given WotC a lot of things that they need to thrive. To get it, they gave up control and royalties.
I'm afraid that they're throwing away the stuff that they absolutely need in order to get the things that they want: control and royalties.
But when no one makes content under OGL 1.1, they get none of what they want. No talent pool, no industry friends, no control because there's nothing being made for them to control.
And no royalties because no one is earning enough to break the threshold.
Everyone loses.
I stumbled on this most of the way through writing this thread.
Here's an example of a designer who worked for a long time to develop skills with 5e. She's worked at Kobold Press and Ghostfire. Now she's moving away from D&D.
From Linda Codega's article on Gizmodo:
"The revenue You make from Your Licensed Works in excess of $750,000 in a single calendar year is considered "Qualifying Revenue" and You are responsible for paying Us 20% or 25% of that Qualifying Revenue."
I'll use the 25% number. Let's assume that you're an establish publisher not actively running a Kickstarter. Maybe you KS'ed products last year and they're still selling. We don't know the exact wording yet, but even if we use the 20% number it just shifts things down a bit.