Armine Yalnizyan Profile picture
Jan 9, 2023 8 tweets 11 min read Read on X
@JimboStanford @justrea69482217 @jason_kirby @globeandmail Yes, the spike in average hourly wages after the pandemic hit was due to the changing composition of the job market (low-paid people-facing jobs shuttered). The tanking of hourly wages was as these places reopened.
Here’s the chart I submitted. Note the dotted line & legend. Image
@JimboStanford @justrea69482217 @jason_kirby @globeandmail I closed my #InflationNation series for @TorontoStar talking about the fact and fiction of the “wage-price” spiral.
thestar.com/business/opini…

tldr: wage growth more associated to unemployment rate than inflation rate, historically.
@JimboStanford @justrea69482217 @jason_kirby @globeandmail @TorontoStar Expect higher wage growth than seen for last 40 yrs, due to half century lows in unemployment.
Expect people to blame workers for inflation.

Labour is rarely the biggest factor of production.
In sectors where it is, like the Care Economy, governments like ON are capping wages.
@JimboStanford @justrea69482217 @jason_kirby @globeandmail @TorontoStar I couldn’t get enough space to publish this remarkable series of charts (same axes!) of the relationship between wage growth, inflation rates, and unemployment rates, from 1945 to today.
Wages measured 4 different ways in that period, so 4 different charts.
Check it out! ImageImageImageImage
@JimboStanford @justrea69482217 @jason_kirby @globeandmail @TorontoStar From 1981 to 2001 wage growth was nonexistent (unemployment was very exceptionally high).
From 2002 to 2019, wage growth only exceeded inflation when unemployment was dropping to close to late 1960s/early 1970s levels (the last time we saw sustained wage growth).
@JimboStanford @justrea69482217 @jason_kirby @globeandmail @TorontoStar You’d think the dreaded “wage price spiral” was coined in the post-war and 1950s, when wage growth and inflation tracked one another more closely.
But no.
Conditions then closely resembled today: supply shortages, labour shortages.
Difference then? strong growth.
@JimboStanford @justrea69482217 @jason_kirby @globeandmail @TorontoStar Exhibit A commonly used to exemplify wage-price spiral is the 1970s. The oil price shocks (2, one in 1973, the other in 1979) DID see organized labour ask for more to catch up with price escalation.
Did they lead or follow inflation?
Chicken or egg?
More like: find a villain.
@JimboStanford @justrea69482217 @jason_kirby @globeandmail @TorontoStar Maybe will happen in 2023, as collective agreements come up for renegotiation.
And since a higher % of the public sector is unionized than private sector, expect blame games against unions, and public sector ones in particular.
Wage rage against workers is actually anti-market. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Armine Yalnizyan

Armine Yalnizyan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ArmineYalnizyan

Jan 20
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👇🏼
There's a lot to agree with in @tonykeller1's analysis but it has 3 blind spots.
1. We don't need "low-skill" workers. Demographic pressures, in big cities and small towns, mean we need workers across the whole skill spectrum, as in the example @tylermeredith offers.
/2
We need to make those jobs better for all workers, Canadian and newcomers. They are not temporary labour market needs.
And we need to acknowledge highly skilled newcomers do "low-skill" work because that's all they can find. We poach skills then abuse/misuse/under-use them.
/3
2. A surge in refugees is associated with a surge in autocratic and despotic governance elsewhere, not because we have not high enough walls. We need a clear policy on what it means to be a safe haven nation, which includes policies on the provision of housing and healthcare.
/4
Read 7 tweets
Jan 29, 2023
OMG I am so sick of this hot take by central bankers.
It ignores the decades of bouts of inflation which fell without them raising rates.
It assumes price stability since the 1990s was due to monetary policy, not China becoming the worlds low l-wage factory.
It’s anti-worker.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 13, 2022
"The World of Loblaw Companies Limited"
(not very limited!)
The Metro group of food and pharmacy stores include Metro, Food Basics, Premiere Moisson, Adonis, Super C, Jean Coutu, Maison all these below. 950 stores. Biggest employer in Quebec.
corpo.metro.ca/en/media/about…
Read 5 tweets
Nov 11, 2022
This has become one of the big changes in writing about labour economics. Historically everything was measured with the 15+ age group. Now, as boomers trip that 65+ wire, that is getting less useful. (DYK 663K more people aged into 65+ by mid October 2022 since pandemic started?)
Can't just measure 15-64, tho: 51K more people aged 65+ are now in the labour force. That offsets the drop in the labour force among 55-64 year olds (50K, which is bigger than the ~36K drop in that age cohort's population). But also: there are 20K fewer 15-24 year olds in the mix
The 15-24 population is roughly stable, up 8K since the pandemic began. (Could be more international students.) But ~21K fewer 15-24 year olds are in the LF (not working or looking for work, maybe full time studying?)

Let's review this math.
Read 11 tweets
Nov 3, 2022
I'm so depressed about where the conversation has moved.
Balance.
Prudence.
Thinking about future growth.
When we are facing a 50-50 chance of recession starting right about now and extending to early 2023; and food inflation and housing costs are galloping ahead.
/2
Prudent to revert to an EI system that is not recession ready, serving roughly 4 out of 10 jobless people.
FES showed EI's operating surplus will grow starting next year and soon eliminate the $26B deficit.
But no word on how to return EI to its purpose: automatic stabilizer. /3
Without an automatic stabilizer, the recession will be longer and deeper than otherwise.
Worried about spending that "pours fuel on the fire of inflation'?
Try *not* spending and making everything worse.
Not prudent. Stupid.
/4
Read 8 tweets
Aug 16, 2022
Canada's inflation rate dips slightly, from 8.1% year over year to 7.6%, but mostly because of moderating gas prices (which are still 35.6% higher than this time last year).
Other price increases moderated in but not in food (up 9.2% from last July, was up 8.8% last month) /2
Price push for the basics (food, shelter and getting around) are still very troubling.
Food up 9.2%, shelter (biggest bite from anyone's budget) up 7% , transportation up 14.4% from this time last year.
Wages? up 5.5%
No wage price spiral. Just hardship.
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
"Gasoline prices rose 35.6% year over year in July after a 54.6% increase in June. Consumers paid 9.2% less for gasoline in July compared with the previous month, the largest monthly decline since April 2020...."
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(