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Armine Yalnizyan Profile picture
Armine Yalnizyan
@ArmineYalnizyan
Economist Atkinson Fellow On The Future Of Workers https://t.co/BEqyofsdCl https://t.co/eIL2hNI8kT… https://t.co/NdjJ8jxGZL
Jan 20 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👇🏼
There's a lot to agree with in @tonykeller1's analysis but it has 3 blind spots.
1. We don't need "low-skill" workers. Demographic pressures, in big cities and small towns, mean we need workers across the whole skill spectrum, as in the example @tylermeredith offers.
/2 We need to make those jobs better for all workers, Canadian and newcomers. They are not temporary labour market needs.
And we need to acknowledge highly skilled newcomers do "low-skill" work because that's all they can find. We poach skills then abuse/misuse/under-use them.
/3
Jan 29, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
OMG I am so sick of this hot take by central bankers.
It ignores the decades of bouts of inflation which fell without them raising rates.
It assumes price stability since the 1990s was due to monetary policy, not China becoming the worlds low l-wage factory.
It’s anti-worker. Please read
Jan 9, 2023 • 8 tweets • 11 min read
@JimboStanford @justrea69482217 @jason_kirby @globeandmail Yes, the spike in average hourly wages after the pandemic hit was due to the changing composition of the job market (low-paid people-facing jobs shuttered). The tanking of hourly wages was as these places reopened.
Here’s the chart I submitted. Note the dotted line & legend. Image @JimboStanford @justrea69482217 @jason_kirby @globeandmail I closed my #InflationNation series for @TorontoStar talking about the fact and fiction of the “wage-price” spiral.
thestar.com/business/opini…

tldr: wage growth more associated to unemployment rate than inflation rate, historically.
Nov 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Stores in the Empire empire. "The World of Loblaw Companies Limited"
(not very limited!)
Nov 11, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
This has become one of the big changes in writing about labour economics. Historically everything was measured with the 15+ age group. Now, as boomers trip that 65+ wire, that is getting less useful. (DYK 663K more people aged into 65+ by mid October 2022 since pandemic started?) Can't just measure 15-64, tho: 51K more people aged 65+ are now in the labour force. That offsets the drop in the labour force among 55-64 year olds (50K, which is bigger than the ~36K drop in that age cohort's population). But also: there are 20K fewer 15-24 year olds in the mix
Nov 3, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I'm so depressed about where the conversation has moved.
Balance.
Prudence.
Thinking about future growth.
When we are facing a 50-50 chance of recession starting right about now and extending to early 2023; and food inflation and housing costs are galloping ahead.
/2 Prudent to revert to an EI system that is not recession ready, serving roughly 4 out of 10 jobless people.
FES showed EI's operating surplus will grow starting next year and soon eliminate the $26B deficit.
But no word on how to return EI to its purpose: automatic stabilizer. /3
Aug 16, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Canada's inflation rate dips slightly, from 8.1% year over year to 7.6%, but mostly because of moderating gas prices (which are still 35.6% higher than this time last year).
Other price increases moderated in but not in food (up 9.2% from last July, was up 8.8% last month) /2 Price push for the basics (food, shelter and getting around) are still very troubling.
Food up 9.2%, shelter (biggest bite from anyone's budget) up 7% , transportation up 14.4% from this time last year.
Wages? up 5.5%
No wage price spiral. Just hardship.
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Sep 7, 2021 • 20 tweets • 11 min read
Surprised that the campaign hasn't yet featured more debate about the 8 bilateral fed/prov/terr deals for early learning and childcare, 50 years in the making.
WAY more than an affordability issue. Critical to equity, economic recovery, and future economic potential.
#Elxn44 Some key facts about the Care Economy (paid activity in health/social assistance plus education sectors):

12.6% of GDP , and 21.3% of all jobs in June 2021, up from 12.3% of GDP and 20.4% of all jobs in February 2020, before the pandemic hit.
Nothing rivals its scale
#Elxn44
Aug 26, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Precis of what the Conservative childcare plan would pay out, and to whom by @AtkinsonCentre
Would reach 60% of families that file taxes with childcare expenses.
Average benefit: $1,300 (a year)
<300 families would get the max $6K tax credit.
(!)

mailchi.mp/utoronto/ontar…
/2 It appears to be modelled on the Ontario Tax Credit.
FAO says that costs $475M in 2021-22, $460 on average ongoing. fao-on.org/en/Blog/Public…
Ontario has 38% of the kids, so nationally approximately $1.2B a year.
The Liberals promised $30B over 5.
This would be ~$6B over 5.
/3
Aug 24, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Affordability is top of mind in all elections.

Is housing>childcare re importance...or votes?

3.5M households with kids (1+ parent), + plenty of HHds deferring having kids because of costs, + grandparents who help. Big voting bloc.

Est'd 2.4M households in core housing need. It's assumed that there are more votes for housing than for childcare, but the numbers are not far off.
The pandemic saw big drop off in women's labour force participation for women 55+ (chunk of whom are grandmas, trying to help out their kids because there. is. no. childcare.)
Aug 16, 2021 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
@AbigailBimman Up to $6K for *families* with incomes under $30K
Also you can work while on maternity leave without getting whacked up to $1K a month, $250 a week! Yay?
More paragraphs on how you'll get time off if your child dies or you suffer a stillbirth/miscarriage than info on childcare. @AbigailBimman Note: if Ontario (largest labour market) had signed a deal with the feds, the pledge to drop parent costs by 50% in 18 mths, $10/day average in 5 yrs would mean parents would save much more $.
For infant care in Toronto ($1685/mth) difference at 50% is $4k/yr more with Lib plan!
Aug 16, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Really superb.

Unemployment is 5.4% in the U.S.
could fall to 4% by year’s end.

#HumbleFed’s @neelkashkari has seriously thoughtful answers to main Q:
What definition of full employment is relevant in the early 21st century for monopol?

/2 One (of many) interesting issues: official UR (unemployment rate) is an average of many average unemployment rates of different demographic groups. One way to be sure labour market slack is falling is by seeing falling inequality between, say, Black and "official" UR.

/3
Aug 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
About a month ago I started thinking about time, its role in recovery, and in our lives.

futureofworkers.substack.com/p/time-is-money Soon after, @anima_tk invited me to have a deeper dive with her on the 4-day work week, a trendy policy idea emerging from pandemic pressures.
I don't think so. Here's why. And what I think will *have* to happen re shorter work time. #FutureOfWorkers theglobeandmail.com/podcasts/the-d…
Mar 10, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Have been crunching numbers on the relative size of the #CareEconomy in Canada, re paid work and contribution to GDP.
First, definition: health services (includes eldercare, home care, long-term care, social assistance) and education services (from childcare through PSE).

/2 Why include education services? Because it develops the potential of our youngest citizens, labour market entrants, and those with jobs or displaced from jobs.
/3
Mar 7, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
"Immigration" debates that only focus on permanent newcomers are myopic.
The stunning trends in CDA's reliance on the temporary are embarrassing.

Cd @marcomendicino's plan to up "immigration" offer an opportunity to reduce this insanity?
thestar.com/news/insight/2…

#FutureOfWorkers "Ironically, admitting more immigrants may be the surest path to a more equitable recovery"
"Though hard to imagine right now, we will soon be looking at widespread labour shortages"
So will every other rich nation dealing with population aging. Expect competition for newcomers!
Mar 6, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Hello Alberta
I was comparing which province's women saw the most roll-back of gains in employment equity due to the pandemic.
It's you guys.
Women's employment rate in 2020 was back at the level it was in 1984.
P.S. More AB women had paid work than anywhere in CDA not long ago cc. @LindsayTedds

It won't get any prettier, because the AB gov't is focused on balancing its budget, so is cutting the one good source of paid work for women: public service jobs.
Jan 9, 2021 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
An economist tackles the notion that competition law is about protecting consumers.
Notes economics views competition as being predominantly about "efficiency".
"You can't talk about competition without talking about power and dominance"
Keep your eyes on @RobinShaban, people. You *live* this, but not often taught.

Pricing strategies among a small number of players in a market often devolve into collusion. (Think telcomm; grocery stores and bread prices; oil)
Not just abt consumer choice, but standards and scrutiny for incumbents and *new* entrants.
Jan 8, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
My sweetheart (MS) is on fire today.
I will provide second-hand commentary from the untwittered. "Imagine how bad it would be if COVID weren't a hoax!" ~MS
Oct 24, 2020 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
This article has crystallized some back-burner thoughts I've had on the rise in popularity of the term "K-shaped recovery".

Here I go: The term causes you to think about recoveries differently.
Even if you aren't an economist, you can quickly grasp the meaning of the [desirable] V (a quick rebound), the W [double-dip recession, with rebound followed by another decline] and the Nike swoosh (long slow recovery).
Aug 19, 2020 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Just to be clear on why immigration levels are the biggest factor when it comes to #cdnecon's future growth:
Economic growth (as measured by GDP, really the only game in town) only comes from three sources in the global system:
+ 1. Labour market growth (add people and stir)
2. Productivity growth (do more with less/something that hasn't been done before)
3. Net exports (exports minus imports, which if positive adds to GDP)
+
Aug 7, 2020 • 22 tweets • 7 min read
First, I want to say how impressed I am with the work @StatCan_eng has been doing to keep us informed, and help us get *better* informed with regard to policy relevant data.
Today's LFS report was a masterpiece of clarity.
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
1/n Second, this report says, near the bottom, about 1/5th of all Canadian households are having difficulty meeting basic household financial needs (rent or mortgage payments, utilities, groceries), and it's been about 1 in 5 since April. That's 2.5 MILLION households! YIPES
2/n