Here's the big question for 2023 as to how things play out.
Will there be a massive escalation in war which requires the "Fed to Pivot" or not by June?
The Eurodollar futures are convinced of it. LIBOR will be dead by then. /3
If you listen to the people 'in the room,' folks like @strongeconomics, the push for war is a necessity.
While everyone wants the Fed to pivot to validate their myopic theories of domestic policy naval gazing, the reality is much starker...
Both Poszar and I are correct. /4
Me: The Fed is trying to stop the march to war by aggressively raising rates and shutting down the money spigot, force a crisis onto the ED/OS markets.
Poszar: The Fed will be unsuccessful in stopping the war that is already here. The pivot is coming.
/5
Everyone else: Be careful what you wish for. Because you may get your pivot to save your misallocated sorry asses, but you'll do so because psychopaths took us to WWIII to save theirs.
/6
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Short thread on the imminent collapse of the Russian economy. The latest episode is entitled, "But The Ruble is Crashing!"
/1
The Ruble was held artificially strong through gov't intervention for most of the summer.
With sanctions, the EU price cap & Putin's response the RUB is going to get pushed around.
Let's Talk Kerch Strait Bridge:
Operating thesis: 1) Rational Actors are still avoiding WWIII 2) Irrational Actors are escalating 3) Lots of factions wanted this to cover their failing plans/systems
So, what happened?
1/
The Truck bomb doesn't tell the whole story. This was likely a combined operation. Even if not, the implications are just as scary.
2/
Given the circumstances and how seemingly desperate many actors are at this point to start WWIII, why would we just chalk this up to good ol' Ukrainian plucky fighting spirit, given that we know how heavily NATO is involved there, esp. US/UK and Polish support?
/3
Just so we are clear. I believe and have believed the hyper-aggressive Neocons (or Straussians) are a faction easily manipulated into doing things that look like they are to their benefit but ultimately aren't.
1/
People this single-minded and radical can easily be directed like a missile at a particular target, especially if that target is their White Whale, i.e. Russia.
2/
Davos is obsessed with preserving the EU and transferring that power to the UN for global government through the end of commercial banking and total surveillance
3/